Seattle Sports Insider

11-and-16

M's trying out the LCHF (lack of competitive drive and horrible faux pas) baseball diet

Posted by

5/3/17

Dr. D saw the first 4-5 innings from the upper deck, and then left the ballpark with James Paxton still in the game and tied. That tells you all you need to know about the utility of this morning's post. It also tells you all you need to know about the Mariners' will to win, seeing as we could grok this ugly loss coming from three or four AU's away.

Honestly, that is what lousy pitching will do for you. The position players start making lots of sloppy errors, thinking about the 3-run homers they need in order to give themselves a chance. I'd be glad to blame Scott Servais -- if he had anything to do with most of his starting pitchers running 2+ gopher ratios. Dipoto better get this 83 ERA+ figured out and quick. I dunno, why did 83 ERA's never happen to Pat Gillick?

We kid. One thing you love, is that Jerry Dipoto feels the loss more than we do. If something can humanly be done he'll do it.

...

I dunno if this counts as humanly doable. Some guy named Christian Bergman is 5-0, 2.17 for the Rainiers ... oh. He pitched in the NL the last 3 years, LOL. Justynius used to crack up at my floundering with stuff like "who is this Pete Goldschmidt guy? he hit the ball pretty far last night" ...

RockiesJeff or G-Money could tell us all about Bergman. It says on Fangraphs that he throws 90 MPH with a confident 86 MPH slider and a confident 80 MPH change. It doesn't explain the confident 8.37 ERA last season in Colorado.

...

James Paxton looked, from the stands, like he was searching for a foshball or curve ball. He looked like he missed with some fastballs and it looked like there was some walks. And he looked like he got catastrophically destroyed for 2 runs.

(One time Randy Johnson lost 2-1 and a beat writer asked him what went wrong on the mound. Johnson stared a long time and finally decided to dignify the question with the reply, "that's what I give up. My ERA is two." But that's how good the Unit was and how good Paxton is. Any runs at all and you wonder what happened.)

On the other hand, we can still watch the league leaders for strikeouts. Paxton has 45 of them in 38 innings; in 1988 Bill James used to call attention to that kind of thing, even if the pitcher had allowed 0 homers. Very nice K to HR ratio.

...

Taylor Motter has been booked; they try to pitch him away so he can't pull the ball into the upper deck. He has now gone 10 at-bats since his last mulithit game. So he's pretty much Danny Valencia at this point.

If you don't have an irony detector, Dr. D is confident that Motter can "adjust" back and step into a few fastballs, outer third. He was already holding up on breaking pitches outer third.

...

I dunno why I turned on Mike Zunino so suddenly. Maybe it's because it seems like he's turned on himself; he's chipping at umpires now where he never used to (because he didn't want the ump holding a grudge against his pitchers). It's kind of weird; he's shown lots of flashes. You'd think he could level out at a mediocre/crummy level if nothing else. The Seattle Mariners have had lots of mystifying young players, haven't they?

...

But offense, Zunino being part of that, ain't the M's problem. Not since they put Guillermo Heredia's 144 offense in for Leonys Martin. Also, is it just me or do the Mariners seem to have very suddenly married Ben Gamel? it's not just the coupla starts; it's a vibe like they really trust him. Maybe it's just me. But we could grok an eventual outfield of --- > Heredia CF, Gamel/Motter LF, Maniger RF, and then Jarrod Dyson in the Kansas City role.

When you got this kind of talent up and down the roster, including in the bullpen and at the TOR, you ought to be able to figure out a 90, 95 ERA+ some how.

Cheers,

Jeff

Blog:

Postgame

Tags:

James Paxton

Comments

"Ought To Be Able"

There's a LOT the Mariners ought to be able to do that they simply haven't done.

1. Play halfway decent baseball by playing to their talent level.

2. Find out why Seager has become an average or worse defensive third baseman over the last couple of years and correct it. Honestly to me Seager's demeanor makes it look like he is not at all in a good place in life, perhaps something even in his personal life.

3. Make the playoffs since 2001.

4. Make it TO the World Series ever.

5. At least once every three years provide their longsuffering fans with a joyful season.

6. Play consistent, crisp, sound baseball.

7. Look like they belong on the same field with the good teams (execution-wise). True there's nothing Servais personally can do about the pitchers' poor performance, but the team looks like it is poorly trained, poorly managed, and poorly led.

8. Keep me from feeling like downward spiralling drain water when I watch them.

I mean, can't we just ONCE have a happy season? Can't the Mariners just once make me feel like I'm being unduly pessemistic instead of duly pessemistic? It's gotta be the Hamms, baby. There's something about that Tumwater water that ensures every Mariners team, no matter who the GM, no matter who the manager, and in some cases no matter who the players, taste like the dregs in a keg of beer.

In the immortal words of John Lennon I say to the Mariners, "Don't Bring Me Down."

Nice put on Seager.

He looks annoyed at nearly all times.

That IS something to watch on K-Swag

From a performance standpoint, his swing rates are down across-the-board (more takes), and his hard-hit balls and pulled balls are fewer. Which wouldn't be inconsistent with the idea of a lackluster attitude, perhaps.

Bergman

I had just notcied him last night. Looked further into his stats and see recently he's had home parks of Coors, Colorado Springs and Albuquerque. Also had a stop several years back in the Cal League. In some fairly normal 2013 Texas League action he was a guy with a pretty decent WHIP. You'd figure after all those nightmare home fields he'd either be shellshocked or learend some tricks to keep the ball in the park. His groundball rate thus far in Tacoma is a career best. Might be worth a start with the M's pretty soon.

Bergman???

I hope getting into a better stadium helps Bergman's head. I just know if he was starting a game with Rockies and I actually remembered, I loved picking on him with Beat the Streak.

They love to blame altitude Bergman but, for the very most part, Bergman got hammered when he was here. I was shocked that the M's picked him up but must have seen something....

That gets it across...

Perhaps Ryan Weber *would* be ahead of him in line.

I've been looking at Christian Bergman too

The added 15 percentage points to his GB% are certainly enticing, but his biggest problem wasn't just the flyballs, but a tendency to leave pitches over the plate. While he does have pretty good control, he seems to have pretty mediocre command, notice the 4 central boxes where Bergman leaves 9.6% of his pitches. For contrast, you know how it feels like Yovani Gallardo leaves a lot of pitches over the heart of the plate? He's sitting around 6.8% of his pitches in the heart of the plate, and that's with an extra couple ticks on his fastball and a difinitively better breaking ball. Maybe he's solved the problem down in AAA where he's avoided allowing very much hard contact this season?

Personally, I'm a little more interested in Ryan Weber with his ZERO walks, ZERO home runs, 72% GB game he's running. The Braves were weirdly inconsistent with his development, he has never had more than 70% of his appearances occur as a starter, but he's made at least 1 start at every level he's played at. The Mariners seem to be more dedicated to his being put to use as a starter (for now), it's taken until his 4th appearance (all starts except for one appearance in the 2nd which was basically a start) to reach 73 pitches, but that equals his season high from last year. He has previously made it as high as 97 pitches, in a 10 strikeout performance against the Nationals in 2015, so he's at least capable of pitching that long. He has a similar though less drastic version of Bergman's problem, leaving 8.3% of his pitches centered, but seems to have much more ability to hit the edges of the zone. What's more, it looks like the Mariners are encouraging Weber to throw a 4-Seam fastball, which would be important since all of his pitches have very little rise, so even a fastball with mediocre vertical rise would provide Weber with a tool to change levels against batters. I'll take a poor man's Brandon Webb.

*Whoops, it looks like he pitched today. He made it to 84, but allowed his first homer on pitch #79. This start featured a season high 3 walks as well, but the grounders were still in force, 75% on the day.

Didn't know Fangraphs posted minor league GB rates

Thanks for that Malcontent. Looks like they have the BABIP's too.

Agree that anybody with a plus-plus-plus grounder rate and no walks is worth a look see. At least as much as Evan Marshall is ...

Thumbs up on the Weber idea Malcontent

More spaghetti, but garnished with a flurry of groundballs. I'm sure he'll be up here shortly the way all our pitching keeps falling apart :/

Zunino AND Gamel: Agreed

I noticed Zunino chipping at a call last night. Thought it was weird for him to do that. Maybe he simply said, "My guy gets that one, too!" My goodness, what I wouldn't give for him to choke up and play small ball for a while. His natural power would keep pitchers honest, but he just looks like he wants to go yard on every swing.

Hey, Pete Rose and Roy White choked up. Go for it kid.

Gamel just fits, doesn't he. Except the stupid wad of tobacco in his mouth, I like him a lot. Last night's o'fer doesn't change that.

The strike zone

Lastnight seemed especially bad. The black was about 8-10" that could go either way depending on often seemingly nothing. I didn't look at graphs after the game just my perception from during it. At least 3 times there was a comment on Root about "That hadn't been called that way all game". The last one I recall was in the 10th inning.

I'm starting to see something in Gamel now. Won't be getting a jersey but I can't complain about his effort or abilities.

This team has a 1998 vibe

The super-talented offense, the many pieces that SHOULD have been good for the pitching staff...the gut-punch losses mounting early...

There are many similarities

To 90s squads. I do believe the bullpen is better now but there's been times I've been as uncomfortable this year. LF is not a problem unlike any given day in the 90s. But catcher is unlike...

Focusing in on the rotation it looks most like 95 to me right now. Cy Randy and...nothing. But there's hope on the DL and ownership might actually ok a move if needed. I'll take Dipoto over any Kingdome GM too. Griffey is on the DL (ya, I know...). If they don't stay afloat this time there's no chance of this year ending the way 95 should have

HEH...

Griffey is on the DL...now that you mention it.... :)

I am deeply concerned at this point w/r/t Diaz. His pitches don't have anywhere near the same stunning sizzle that they did last year. If he doesn't get his stuff together, our pen is not good.

Yeah

And just when Zych reminds me a bit of Nelson, Pazos shows that he's not 30ish year old Rhodes. There's way more hope in this bullpen than anything from the pre-Gillick 90s though. Half our playoff teams had worse pens. That's what I'm clinging too.

If so, it's an echo of 1997 also

When the rotation (98) or the bullpen (97) are consistently letting you down, it's hard to maintain an "every base counts" attitude. Because every base winds up not counting.

I wonder what the deal is. Practically all the "fail-able" pitchers this year ARE failing and last year we had KKKarns, Miley, and Taijuan disappoint. Maybe Diderot has something with his Mel Jr. question.

I'll give it a 3rd

On Mel Jr.. I see little evidence that he's helped although it can be hard to tell from where I sit. I do feel pretty certain that improvement is possible anyway.

Agreed

Have not seen Stottlemeyer help anybody become a better pitcher either. Nothing but disappointments since he got here. Unless we can give him credit for Paxton. Perhaps we can. I don't know, the evidence is stacking against him.

Mariners 2017: Hit The BEACH,

Mariners 2017: Hit The BEACH, baby!!

Expectations: Waikiki Beach, surf, sun and fun

Reality: Omaha Beach, blood, bullets and shredded bodies

Is there any chance...

... that the Mariners would take a flyer on just released Saltalamacchia? I know this sounds like adopting a child with the identical features of one you already have. And I know that Salty hasn't performed well this year or last. But he was serviceable in 2015 -- OPS+ing 113 in 70 games with AZ. Oh, wait, that's identical to Zunino in 2016. Nothing to see here... moving along... I'll shut up now.

If you're sending Zunino down

Then it's not a horrible idea. I don't know about sending Zunino down. Alternately could trade him for something at least kind of shiny.

Upon further investigation

You are kind to say that Wish. But as I've dug a bit more I discovered that Salty hasn't thrown out one baserunner this year out of nine attempts... and is currently batting .040 Maybe it was his cool beard that made me think he might have something left. I officially retract my idea as unthinkably stupid. It's this kind of cerebral difficulty that caused Jeff to limit me to an average of one post per month. *grins*

If avoiding "cerebral

If avoiding "cerebral difficulty" were a test of citizenship, a few of us (mostly myself) would be on the other side of Trump's wall.

Turn in, Tune In, Drop In.

That's adapting a famous quote by former M's pitcher Tim Leary. Or some other Timothy Leary.

Well then

I hadn't looked it up either so I wasn't so much being kind as falling into the same broken veteran trap. What I remember him as is not what he is.

Anything new at catcher seems good at first glance though.

Still holding out hope

for Marcus Littlewood. His bat is surviving at the AA level across 400+ ABs now. He has decent size so some power could creep in there maybe a 10-15 HR guy with 260+ average. Not sure how well his defense has progressed since making the switch to catcher several years back.

Good call

Littlewood is still definitely a prospect to watch. His athleticism, hard work and understanding of the game have helped him improve receiving skills to the point he has a good chance to be average or so defensively. Maybe better. His hitting probably took a backseat to an extent during his transition to catcher. There's signs of life in his bat the last year at least and he only just turned 25 in March. Still interesting seeing a switch hitting catcher and he has 2 starts this year at DH.

I don't think Baron is done as a prospect either at 26 with probably average defense now. I don't expect a starter out of him either, there's at least still maybe something there. Most probably view him as a bust because they thought picking him where he was picked was a bust at the time. He's hit decently the last few years in total.

Sweet Hay Zoos' ...

I've never understood why they banished Sucre.

Roster crowding? They already had him back in Tacoma.

And certain pitchers really liked him.

OK, DaddyO:

You are entitled to nothing as a long-suffering fan. Pick your voltage.

Dropping some acid might be what it is down to with Zunino ... nothing else has worked except short terrm, short short term.

He is a glowing case of frustration, and it is radioactive.

Time for the Gong Show

"One toke over the line, Sweet Jesus, one toke over the line".

They gotta get a catcher somewhere ... what will they give up?

I'm sure DePoet is creating a list.

Meanwhile, where is the sainted McKay working his wonders on his charges heads, arms, hands and feet?

Servais/Throttlemeyer//Don't Bogart that joint/ and The Hampton's certtainl don't seem to be finding any magic.

Maybe get the electric bull prod back into the bullpen.

I know some fans will be willing to do the zapping.

zoom

Was talking about LF GG

Lastnight after watching Heredia race to leap over the wall and catch a line drive HR. But then I started looking. Brett Gardner got the AL LF GG last year with a UZR/150 of 5.7 and he's currently at 21.1. Air Moe is at 27.2. But Dyson is at 7.2 UZR/150 in close to the same innings as Heredia. Is it time to admit Heredia should be in CF?

Air Moe...

I kinda like that nickname, now that we know he can really run them down.

They were talking on Kiro

earlier (I don't remember who) about the fact that most HR they could recall being caught were pop fly HR, where the fielder waits for it and times their leap. I can't recall one like Heredias lastnight at all where the fielder races to get to a line drive over the wall.

Ha!

I'm in!!!

Does that

Kind of make you feel like Jordan?

I figured it's in his name and he has recently earned the "Air" title with leaps and dives anyway. Guillermo is too unwieldy to chant and Heredia even more so. I'll try to start an "Air Moe" chant at the game tomorrow from behind 1b on the 100 level.

It's too bad he's 1-1 in SB and -1.6 in BSR because his WAR is consequently only .4

Catcher just kinda feels like a lost cause for us.

We keep swinging and missing on top picks, and our depth seems to be... well, shallow.

Here's hoping Zunino takes whatever Gamel got down in Tacoma. But then again, he's already had a few rounds down there... I'm beginning to think C is the actual FA/trade location to spend our bucks at the deadline.