Broken Paradigms
=== The Pennant Race ===
On KIRO radio today, an amigo axed, "What if you don't sell, and you go down to the wire, and don't win the division? Then you've lost everything!"
Um, no. I had a pennant race. I had that day on August 17th when Felix fired a shutout to pull us within three. I had weeks, or months, of baseball entertainment.
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The right paradigm is not, "If you don't win the division, it was a wasted season." The right paradigm is, "If you weren't in the fight, it was a wasted season."
Again, think of an Olympic 1500 meter race. You're four strides back with 500 meters to go. Do you quit, or do you give the other guy a chance to falter?
Or -- when Milorad Cavic lost to Michael Phelps by 0.01 seconds in the butterfly, did that mean the race was pointless and he should never have been there?
Milorad Cavic didn't waste his time. He fought like a lion and was a part of one of the Olympic Games' greatest moments. (The silver medal is beside the point. Joe Frazier didn't waste his time in Ali-Frazier III, either.)
We are stuck on the paradigm that, at the moment we lose, we will be proven chumps for having been there. If you'll think about that for two seconds, you'll realize how messed up that whole paradigm is.
Seahawks '05. Did it turn out that they were wrong to push all in? M's 1995. Should they not have traded for Benes and Coleman? The 1995 M's lost, dude.
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=== When IS It Time to Quit? ===
The Toronto Blue Jays are 12.5 back. They can't make the playoffs. THEY should sell. The Blue Jays are NOT IN a pennant race. Their fans are as clear about this as their GM is.
The Seattle Mariners are 6.5 back and they ARE in a pennant race (though underdogs in it). They CAN win. So they should chase the leader.
"I don't like my chances, so I should admit reality." Does that apply the next time the Seahawks are -9 point dogs on Friday? In principle: if you probably won't win, then the smart thing is to forfeit?
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... Granted, the M's will need the Angels to falter. And there's a great chance of that. It is no reach, kiddies, to say you might see the Angels lose 15 of their next 25. Hot-but-flawed ballclubs stumble down the stretch all the time.
That's the underdog's job. To put pressure on their opponent. To wait for them to mess up. To make the favorite's day as unpleasant as possible. That's sports!
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=== Who EXACTLY Do You Expect to Trade For? ===
You deal Bedard, Washburn, and Branyan for prospects, those prospects aren't guarantees. What if THEY don't pan out? Nobody ever asks, what if you take Strategy B and it doesn't work out , either.
It would be one thing, if you were talking about getting back Clayton Kershaw or Matt Kemp or somebody in this fire sale. But no, you ain't getting your 2011 #4 hitter in any trades this week. You're not getting anybody better than Tuiasosopo or Saunders anyway.
By deciding to press the Angels, you're not passing on anything you're afraid to lose.
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=== No Mas, Baby ===
You think of the pain Lance Armstrong is going through, right now, 5 minutes back, hoping the leader will give him an opening .... and .... sigh.
I don't have to win at the end, for me to have been glad I played sports, guys. :- ) I enjoy minute 37, whether or not minute 48 goes my way.
I'm down 25 in the fourth quarter, sure, I get the benchies in there. It's over. But I'm down 12 in the third, and I quit then, what does that make me?
This "we probably won't win, so the intelligent thing to do is resign" stuff -- it misunderstands what sports are.
Cheers,
Dr D