Beltre to Oakland?
Per MLBTradeRumors, the A's are very interested in Beltre. They would need for him (and Boras) to scale back his $10-15m per season price tag, for something designed for 'an Oakland economy sized package.'
The catch-22 is that if Beltre accommodates Oakland with a value contract, at that point San Francisco, Detroit, and St. Louis are supposed to be interested.
Odd that the A's, with a hole at 3b, would deal Brett Wallace and then start arguing with Boras about the degree of Beltre's career downslope.
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=== Transition Year ===
If I were Adrian Beltre, and had just hit a grand total of 8 home runs, I'd be thinking in terms of one year in a hitter-friendly park -- and then a killing on the FA market.
Everybody, and I mean everybody, knows that Beltre is one of the greatest defensive specialists in the game. Soccer moms on the Oakland chat board know that Beltre's mitt is his calling card.
So why wouldn't you play one year in Fenway or Wrigley or someplace, hit 30 homers, and then hit the free agent market sizzling?
The answer could be in the "agony startin' to pile up,'" as Rocky put it to another Adrian. If your body were starting to unravel like a K-Mart sweater, you might well be interested in locking up your last $30-40m right away, rather than taking $8m and hoping your body held out. $30-40m is a lot of dinero...
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=== QOTD Dept. ===
So WHY. In the WORLD. Would Adrian Beltre be interested in declining arbitration?!
He'd have made what. $13m for one year? And now he's talking to Oakland about far less than that?
Scott Boras is not known for miscalculation.
And I don't buy the conspiracy theories here: I've never heard of MLB teams cutting back-room deals, "hey we'll offer arb and you decline it."
Even if Bud Selig would enable teams to cut sham arb offers with their players to score draft picks from rival teams .... why would Scott Boras allow his player to float around in the sky with an arb-pick anchor attached to his shoe?! Scott Boras would agree to hamstringing one of his FA's to do a team a favor? C'mon.
Cognitive dissonance.
Only thing I can think of: that after those long, painful years in Safeco, Adrian was just too sick-and-tired of the place to return for even one more year.
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=== BaseballHQ Dept. ===
Shandler's take on Beltre:
- At 31, is more into his skills-decline phase than people realize
- 4-year decline in AB's -- signalling injuries that will get worse, not better
- Reasonable production possible if he gets large AB totals, which he won't
- 270/310/425 line, 4.4 runs per 27 outs
Which is another interesting, 30,000-foot perspective that had eluded us in Seattle -- we're pretty much caught up in analyzing the effects of Safeco and of his "temporary" injuries and not much addressing the question of whether he's shortly going to be over the hill.
That makes a lot of sense. Beltre, when 17-18 years old, was way too good for his stated age... A 4-, 5-year contract is extremely problematic for Beltre.
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=== Dr's Prognosis Dept. ===
For me, Beltre going to Oakland would be just about the ideal outcome.
This guy is a genuine pleasure to watch, both defensively and on a personal level, and if he went to Oakland, we'd get to see 19 games' worth of his exquisitely beautiful defensive play.
While, IMHO, not having to worry about his setting us back in the standings. Beltre is fun to watch, but IMHO doesn't do a lot at this point to help teams win. What he gets you on short-hop snags, he gives away fishing for strike three with two men on. Hey, it's just my opinion.
In Oakland, we'd get to see Beltre's ballet-like Hot Corner work 19 games a year. And we'd get to see Ian Snell and Doug Fister ring him up three times a game :- )
Cheers,
Jeff