POTD Eric Wedge - Bullpen Switches (2)
Q. Still, was Eric Wedge justly criticized for his bullpen use in Cleveland? If the criticism was fair, how would you know?
A. One way you would know, would be using a little stat called "Blown. Quality. Starts."
Baseball Prospectus has data for BQS over the years 2005-2009. (2010 isn't up yet, and apparently there is no data for 2004 and prior.)
In 2005, the first year for which BP has the data, Wedge was 5th among 30 managers in Blown Quality Starts -- the Indians had 12 of them.
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Q. Does the BQS stat capture skill bullpen management? What if the relievers are just bad?
A. Remember that BQS captures starters left in too long -- if Doug Fister has 6 IP, and 2 ER, and then goes out and gives up 2 runs in the 7th, that's a BQS. He shouldn't have gone out there.* What does that have to do with the quality of your relievers? Little or nothing.
BQS also captures the regularity with which you're choosing the best mediocre reliever to come in to the game against those hitters that night. Remember, with the first reliever in, the manager always has a choice of 3-4 guys.
Most MLB rosters have three or four AAA pitchers at the end of the staff. Eric Wedge isn't the only guy who had to use Sean White or Garret Olson or Brian Sweeney in the 6th inning.
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And, of course, we're talking about a series of years here. Wedge didn't have terrible bullpens every year. But he did have terrible BQS's every year.
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Q. Is the BQS stat driven by the big-money relievers, or by the fringe ML pitchers?
A. Most MLB franchises have to scramble with their 9, 10, 11, 12 pitchers. The Seattle Mariners will have to pick-and-choose their bridge men out of AAA, just like the Indians did.
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Q. In 2005, Wedge's starters had a boatload of BQS? What about in the other seasons?
A. Here are Wedge's BQS totals, and MLB rank among 30 teams, for all seasons 2005-2009:
- ML Average: About 6 to 7 BQS per season
- 2005: 12 BQS, rank #5
- 2006: 14 BQS, rank #2 in all of baseball
- 2007: 10 BQS, rank #7
- 2008: 12 BQS, rank #2 in baseball
- 2009: 10 BQS, rank #6
Game after game after game, Wedge was leaving his starters in too long, or choosing the wrong man to enter the ballgame, or both.
I don't know what his eighth-inning switches were like, but do you suppose that the man who always got it wrong in the 6th and 7th was then getting it right later?
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Q. Perhaps the high BQS totals simply reflect the fact that Wedge left his SP's in longer than other managers?
A. Nah. Baseball Prospectus also ranks managers by 120+ pitch counts and 100+ pitch counts.
Over the period 2005-09, Wedge used his SP's fairly lightly -- which is remarkable when you consider that he had Sabathia, Cliff Lee and Jake Westbrook.
If anything, Wedge has a fairly quick hook. He just kept pulling the SP's at the wrong moment, and putting in the wrong relievers when he did. End of story.
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Q. At least Wedge doesn't abuse his SP's, then.
A. He certainly doesn't. He had a grand total of six (6) games with 120+ pitches over the entire five years; Bobby Cox had 8 of those in 2007.
Wedge also has a low number of games with 100+ pitches. He gets his SP's out of there. As a former catcher, you can imagine that he'd be sensitive to tiring SP's. And he is.
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