Capuano's Strikeout Rate
But, it's an error to consider Cappy a "7-K" version of Wash. He's more like a 6-K version of Wash, once you remove the K-per-game he was getting pitching to HoRam and Jeff Weaver.
What are you, an AL racist?
:- )
Capuano's lifetime 7.4 strikeout rate in the NL translates to exactly 6.8 strikeouts per nine innings in the AL. We do not accept the attempt to round 6.8 to the integer 6, rather than to 7.
Hey, if you're going to bowl into the lane with elbows doing a washing-machine twirl, I'm going to set my feet :- )
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From a substantive point of view (as opposed to a detail orientation), there were only 18 starters in the National League with more than 7.4 strikeouts, most of them named Kershaw, Lincecum, Halladay, Hamels, Oswalt, and stuff like that.
Capuano, over his entire career, has gotten 104 swinging strikes per 1,000 pitches. The NL average is 85.
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Let's not sell this guy short. His stuff looks funky, but so did George Sherrill's, Sid Fernandez' and a lot of sidearm lefties'.
Chris Capuano is VERY hard to see. He gets a whale of a lot of garbage swings from the best hitters in the game. Luke French goes a month between garbage swings.
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For all that ... although Chris Capuano is a legit 7-8 strikeout guy (okay, 7 in the AL) ... his homer rate is such a glaring Achilles' heel that he'll always be a low #3 or a real good #4.
Capa is a guy who takes his life in his hands on every pitch. Most the time he misses the bat. When he doesn't, it's three runs in a real hurry...
Which is why the Mariners probably won't come within a 10-foot pole, or $3M in salary, of Capuano. Much more their style to find a 4.0 strikeout, groundball pitcher somewhere...
Despite Felix, the Seattle Mariners were #29 in team strikeouts last year, which is no accident: the Mariners' organizational philosophy is to avoid K's on offense and HR's on defense. "Risk" aversion. So Capa would go seriously against their grain.
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His HR rates the first three years in Safeco: 1.2 ... 1.1 ... 1.1 ...
His miracle 2009 season ... he did exactly what he did back in 2002 ... he ran a 0.7 for 20 games ... was traded to Detroit - and was sooooo bad the rest of the season, he ended up at 1.2 for the year.
Wash also ran 4.67; 4.32; 4.69 ERAs those first three years.
Yes, the Seattle defense stunk those years ... but Washburn also had a 109 career ERA+, about 5 points better than what Cappy has shown.
Ya, they were 1.20, 1.11 and 1.07 before his 0.74 in 2009. But that doesn't mean we wave off the number that created the excellent average. Ichiro's career AVG of .331 includes his .372 in 2004. It's not like 2004 didn't happen.
Which is why we have the arithmetic "mean" and "median" concepts, I guess... Washburn's median of 1.09 is a little higher than his "mean" of what, 1.04 or so.
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The point here is NOT to try and dismiss Cappy as a target - but to set up realistic expectations. If everything works out right - (defense remains stellar - new league effect works in his favor for a year -- park effect helps out) -- yes, he might run a 3.90 ERA. If things go south, he could pitch "so-so" and be taking the 5.10 to Yuma.
The 5.10 to Yuma :- ) that is awesome...
If the broad point is that Washburn is somewhat comparable to Capuano in ability, I'd say yeah, that's reasonable. The bottom line is that Washburn's career ERA+ is even a little better than Capa's, so it's a fair point.
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Objectively speaking, I've got to concede that to date, Capa has been no better than Washburn.
Dial 1-800-BET? And I'm with BaseballHQ: Capa is about to come into some decidedly above-average seasons.
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Cheers,
Dr D