Dylan Unsworth's 44:1 CTL in Short-Season
Yahoo 20-team champ Cool Papa Bell sez,
Dr. D, are you aware of the damage Dylan Unsworth did in his first round of pro ball? In 50 innings, he had 44 strikeouts and only ONE walk. And he was only 17. Yet he wasn't mentioned in Churchill's Top 30. How is that possible? I'm sure Churchill would respond by saying that he has underwhelming velocity or whatever, but there are tons and tons of mediocre pitchers of all ages who pass through the minors and they don't put up those kinds of video game numbers. Is there really any way that he isn't a serious prospect? I can't imagine there being 30 players better than him in the M's system alone.
Am hardly an expert on, or even interested in, short-season ball, but ... from what I gather scootin' around the internet James Thomas style...
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1. No complaints here, if somebody has him on their top 30, although
1a. He's not in mine
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2. He'll get his chance this year to hit the radar (figuratively and literally), so no use overreacting if somebody doesn't like him
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3. He sounds like a high-school type pitcher: [non-pitcher body, non-pitcher fastball, pretty much just a guy off the street] type
3a. Yes, I realize that doesn't explain why they signed him from 9,000 miles away
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4. The 44/1/1 three true outcomes are interesting -- as you note, at least he's not giving up taters...
4a. But a LOT of guys run gigantic 7:1, 10:1, 15:1 control ratios in that rookie league ... I think six or eight teammates of his were over 7:1 ...
4b. Notice that two more walks would have produced a 44:3 ratio, so I don't think either of us would sell the 44:1 CTL as being comparable to scoring 60 points a game in NCAA D2 hoops or anything
4c. Relative to Justin's point about hits yielded -- definitely, but consider the fielding also: Erik Bedard gave up a bunch of hits when he was in that league in 2010, to teenagers and stuff
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5. Summary: first wild-eyed guess at the kid is that he has real nice natural control, Scott Bankhead type, but that he's really just a HS pitcher outfoxing other non-prospects right now
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6. What do you figure, about a 30% chance that G, J or Jon will inform me that's not Unsworth in the photo
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Going back to 3a ... there are any number of high school kids, just in the Seattle area, who can throw 85 mph with nice command, so there has to be SOME reason the Mariners brought Unsworth halfway across the world.
Whatever it was they liked, and we have no idea what that was, they'd have to like it a whole lot more after the 44:1:1 results as a teenager.
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Basic SSI crunch is this, FWIW, which is not much: short-season stats do have to be lumped with high-school and small college stats - hard to make much sense of them. Weird things can happen there statistically, from prospects and non-prospects.
I noticed that Churchill did give Unsworth his Short Season Man Of The Year award or whatever, qualifying it by saying it's a dead end unless Unsworth grows into a fastball.
In this specific case, my guess would be that it's pretty well on track.
I can't see anybody in HQ's minors book that I'd give up for an Unsworth type.
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But I would like to know what the Mariners saw in Unsworth to sign him, because whatever it was, it's amplified after 2010. Unsworth passed his first filter and passed it huge.
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Or not,
Dr D