Bedard vs Cleveland: Technical diagnosis, 1
Q. Is SSI willing to consider the possibility that Bedard isn't throwing well? That he won't come back all the way?
A. Very willing. Intrigued by the possibility, we sat down two hours ago to see whether this might be the case.
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We saw an article recently, claiming that Bedard used to throw 92-96, and now only throws 90, so he's no good any more.
And, after his first loss against Texas, we saw some post somewhere based on Bedard having only 4 swings-and-misses last start (or whatever) and proclaiming him done as an elite pitcher.
I sat down to this Bedard start to determine whether these two things might be possible -- whether Bedard's loss of velo on his fastball might be causing his game to collapse.
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Q. How much velo has Bedard lost?
A. His career average is 91.5 (not 95). In 2008, when he fanned 8+ men per game, it was 90.9.
In the Cleveland game, when he was smashed for 6 runs in the first few innings, Brooks had him at 90.6 after four innings. Here's the direct link to the velo graph.
Visually, he had a good quick fastball, and had batters swinging behind it. Particularly inside.
Historically, there have not been pitchers I remember, whose game collapsed based on their fastballs going from LH-91 to LH-90.
It's not the fastball velo, no.
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Q. Is the post-surgery arm strength a factor at all?
A. Sure. I don't think he's out of the woods as far as velocity dropoff at 80 pitches, 5 innings, or whatever.
But vs. Cleveland, he was gone after 4. The Indians certainly did not hit Bedard because his FB was not quick enough.
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Incidentally, you'd expect there to be a buildup of arm strength here. The man was off for 21 months. If typical, Bedard's velo would spike a bit in June.
Jon Lester and Francisco Liriano sit at about 90-92, by the way. With those kind of LH curve balls you definitely do not need to rely on pure velocity.
Bedard has never been David Price, Clayton Kershaw or Randy Johnson. Bedard is (1) a plus-plus curve as the $$$$$ pitch, (2) a sneaky-quick fastball that is hidden well, and (3) pitchability.
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If Bedard's fastball were 87-89 with no life, and that's what they were crushing, then fine. That is not the case.
Bedard's fastball, vs. Cleveland, was 90+ with his usual plus-plus deception and excellent late life (e.g., 9 inches of swerve on the 2-seam and 8 inches of hop on the 4-seam).
That's not significantly different than he's ever been.
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Q. Is his curve a problem?
A. Bedard's curve is breaking a little harder than in past years -- a bit more sharply down, and a bit less sideways-tilted.
It used to have a 6x10 inch break; against Cleveland, it had a 5x12 inch break. You can look that one up yourself.
Visually, the curve is Nintendo from the word Go. It's not that, no.
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Q. Is he missing bats?
A. After four innings against Cleveland, he had 9-of-81 pitches for swinging strikes.
That's 11.1% swinging strikes Sunday, through four; his career average is 9.3%.
His career high is 11.1%, the year he fanned 10.9 per game. In Seattle, with the awesome ERA's, it's been 9.1% and 8.7%.
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So it's not his stuff. For sure Sunday, his stuff was normal for him, meaning his stuff was elite.
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Q. That's one game, right?
A. Right. We're asking what happened Sunday, when he gave up six runs.
What didn't happen, was that he was not lacking strikeout stuff. He had strikeout stuff, and in fact he did strike out 6 men (vs. 1 walk) in four innings.
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Q. So how'd they get 10 hits in 4 innings? Was he tipping?
A. Three things:
- Bedard got the ball up in the zone; he didn't have his best command
- Cleveland was hot
- Cleveland got excellent BABIP luck
That's all.
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