Roundtable: IS Cuts Done?
Sez Coug, who this week is locked in mortal kombat with BABVA in the AL-only league:
Raul Ibanez looked finished the first half of 2007. It was so painful to watch that I was practically begging Bavasi to give the spot to Jones because a pennent was on the line. Clearly Ibanez wasn't finished.
When power hitters struggle (Sexson in the first half of 2006 as well), they look finished. But if Cust isn't finished can you think of a player with a higher upside than him just floating around the league? Mike Wilson doesn't interest me because even if he beats the long odds and makes it in the bigs, Safeco isn't the park where he will succeed. If he were a lefty... maybe.
Great examples on Ibanez and Sexson.
And I was one of the doorstops who figured it was time to bail on Raul, based first of all on fading LH vs LH splits. Embarrassing to judge a player washed up when he has three (3) full 100-RBI seasons in the tank.
Gotta allow for a decent possibility that Cust will bounce back. Obviously Zduriencik is allowing for it as we speak.
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At the same time, guys are finished some time, right? Can't keep throwing good money after bad in a refusal to recognize when the player is washed up .... so the decision is tough, no doubt...
Reasons that I judge Cust to be over the hill, all of which might be wrong:
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=== HR/F Rate ===
Remember, James sabermetrics emphasizes trendlines over periods of years. These data are seminal.
- 2007 - 32% - age 28
- 2008 - 30% - age 29
- 2009 - 18% - age 30
- 2010 - 15% - age 31
- 2011 - 00% - age 32
Sometimes numbers don't mean anything. Sometimes they do. Sabermetrics isn't as easy as buying BaseballHQ.com for a year. There's guessing involved...
Personally, I judge these HR/F numbers to reflect an effect that has cause. That cause being the physical decline of Jack Cust.
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=== Age 32 ===
I experienced the ages of 28 and 32. They aren't the same ages.
Most people are surprised when a decent ballplayer, say Jeff Cirillo, is no longer good at age 32. Bill James was surprised when a non-star ballplayer was still good at 32.
In the 1970's, he waged a long and determined war on Stan Musial's famous statement that a ballplayer peaks at around age 32. That specific age, 32, is one that should be associated with a hitter's decline. Unless there's reason to believe otherwise, of course.
I believe we underestimate the impact of passing age 30, when we're talking about rank-and-file ballplayers.
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=== Old Player's Skills ===
It's even more likely that an age-32 player will be done if he plays in an Alvin Davis profile.
The principle isn't especially deep .... don't think of 25% of age-32 players as being done. Think of 75% of them being done. If they're not realllllllly good.
Your evaluation of Cust's struggles will be different if you're coming from the 25% assumption vs. the 75% assumption.
If an aging Shawn Alexander is running a 5.1 forty and he gets crushed three times, that's not small "sample size" (sic). It is confirmation of what we should have seen coming.
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Is 25-75 the right number? I don't know, but whatever the split is: it's worse for guys like Cust than for guys like Figgins.
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=== The Oakland A's ===
The A's gave up on Cust.
They gave up on Cust more than once. 2011 was simply their final word on the subject.
I believe that the Oakland A's probably had a profound understanding of Cust's situation.
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=== The Clipboard ===
It does not look to me, from the CF camera, that Jack Cust has the explosiveness needed to (1) load up and hit a ball 400' while (2) being quick.
You and I have the ability to either hit somebody really hard, or else to hit somebody really quick ....
Bruce Lee called that second one "flickiness." You have to hit really quick without flickiness, Lee said. Only great athletes, in their prime, can do that.
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=== Context ===
Cust is making contact every bit as well as he ever did. But John Olerud's only problem was ever that his doubles and homers started dying in front of the warning track...
The A's DFA'ed Cust the first time for running an OPS+ of 104. Think about it: 104 isn't acceptable to the A's at DH. They've got kids they wanna try.
104 is now our dream scenario for Cust, is it not? When your best-case scenario results in you losing, you've got to change the discussion.
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It would be one thing if Cust had Chone Figgins' contract. He doesn't have any contract, to speak of.
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It would be another thing if he played third base, or something, and you couldn't give his AB's to anybody.
But at DH you can give his AB's to anybody, and I don't care which of these two things it is:
- The RLP snipe
- Any developmental player, e.g. Saunders, if there's no snipe
Tough to believe there is nobody, not one player, in AAA or Safeco who is worth spending AB's on, if only to gather data to make a decision.
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Let's see some backup for Coug. And if Cust hits three homers in Boston, this tape will self-destruct.
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BABVA,
Dr D
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