Jason Vargas' Universal Spiral
Spec sez,
How about this guy [as a candidate for 1H 2012]. In Sept.
5 GS, 31.2 IP, 2.84 ERA, 1.14 WHIP
0.3 HR/9, 2.6 BB/9, 7.7 K/9
It's Jason Vargas with "the twist." I think he'll be cheaper than any FA, and if the the twist makes him a 7-K/9 lefty, then he's probably just as good.
Dr. D has been a fan of The Pitching Twist since this 1980's pitcher, who for 3-4 years was the only good pitcher the Seattle Mariners had. Later, this pitcher proved to us that you could not only pitch well with the twist, but could also function as THE best pitcher in baseball.
As a completely separate issue, aikido is stuffed with spiritual mumbo-jumbo about the place of the spiral in nature, from DNA through whirlpools up through spiral galaxies.
Koichi Barrish sensei, at Kannagara in Granite Falls, was particularly obsessed with the spiral. We ate, lived and breathed spirals up there. (Yes, it's true, if a guy throws a big slow drunken right hand, and you time it right, you can throw him 10 feet across the room and out the window with a Seagal-style spiral. Seagal can execute those moves in real life -- against drunks.)
Suffice it to say that, yes, a spiral is one of nature's purest forms of power. Ask a shot-putter or hammer tosser.
Quarterbacks don't have the time, on the clock, to spiral. But baseball pitchers hold the ball. They should most of 'em spiral, like Tim Lincecum does.
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Q. How well is Vargas, personally, integrating the twist?
A. It's off-and-on. At times I've been appalled: he (1) shows his numbers to the hitter, (2) turns his shoulder back around perpendicular, and then (3) begins to accelerate the ball.
That's no good. It doesn't make any difference to tuck your shoulder, if you're going to untuck it before you get torsion. In two games (don't remember which ones) Vargas was twisting ... and hitting 87 mph. Statically.
At other times, Vargas has legitimately put the load onto his back muscles, kept the front shoulder turned until he began to accelerate ... and then he hit 89-90 with superb deception.
That was the way in this last Oakland game, which we watched. Those 10 strikeouts weren't by no blinkin' accident. He'd throw 89, on the black, and the Oakland hitters looked simply blindfolded. Called strike three.
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Q. How well will it be implemented, for 1H 2012?
A. His motion genuinely meshes well with the dynamic spiral. He pitched well with it in his very first game.
An aiki sensei would assume that Vargas should be up to speed -- loading his back consistently -- after spring training next year.
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Q. How much benefit can you legitimately assume?
A. Well, Vargas has demonstrated +2 mph. As Fister did.
It also seems to camoflage "tells" in the head and shoulders, to turn them away from the hitter. The dynamic spiral seems to "sell" the fake-FB changeup.
I don't care for Jason Vargas. He's not my kind of pitcher. But objectively speaking, this shoulder tuck has already given every indication of taking his game up a level.
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Q. Is SSI concerned about Vargas' "finish" to 162-game seasons?
A. Not too much. Because:
- It was the M's fault that they let him pile up 7 near-CG's in a row in July-August
- He's having a great September, with the dynamic spiral
- He's been worth $21.0M the last two years
- 1H vs 2H splits are a minor, not major, consideration compared to the $21.0M stat
You can't kick a $10M pitcher to the curb because he's going to cost $5M. The talk of non-tendering Vargas is way off the mark.
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Q. Leaving him where, in SSI's skeptical view?
A. Lots of MC/SSI readers have viewed Jason Vargas as sort of a modern-day Jimmy Key. I always thought that was over the top.
But, at minimum, Vargas' plusses are indisputably:
- He's a soft-tosser above Shandler's 5.6 strikeout line
- He's a tremendous match for his home park
- He has a changeup that is a fearsome weapon
- He has piled up 5.0 WAR in 2010-2011
He went into 2012 as a proven #4 starter in the American League. There's a whale of a lot of guys who aren't.
Doug Fister's plateau leap was discerned by SSI after his 3rd and 4th starts of the 2012 season. Though we do so with less gusto, we've got to admit that Vargas is showing almost as much evidence of a plateau leap, now, as Fister did then.
.......
If Jason Vargas were a Texas Ranger, I'd be very concerned that this shoulder turn / dynamic spiral has lifted Vargas into actual Jimmy Key, Mark Buehrle territory.
There's potential for even more. In September, Vargas' 8k, 2bb, 0hr results -- and his stuff -- raises the question of whether he could post five years as Jamie Moyer.
He has been a solid 2.5 WAR number 4 starting pitcher .... he looks like he very well may upsell to Mark Buehrle, and he's raised the question of whether he has become Jamie Moyer.
You've got to assume his spot in the 2012 rotation, or you've got to get a big return for him in trade. The latter's not out of the question. GM's can read September splits, too.
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BABVA,
Dr D