Rotation Seedings - SSI's World
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1 Felix.
Fun fact of the day for yer. At the -62 runs per year Felix has established for himself, he could team with two 1.5 WAR starters and exceed the 2011 WAR of Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, the three best SP's of the 2011 Boston Red Sox.
Felix + 1.5 WAR + 1.5 WAR > Boston's Big Three.
::: MUFASA!! :::
::: shudder ::: ... >:-} Hey, say it again!
::: muuuufasssa! :::
::: oooo-hhoooo-hoooo ::: >:-}
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2 Vargas. He's one of the top 5 finesse LHP's in MLB, and the park goes with him like itchy and scratchy.
... that said: the Mariners traded Doug Blinkin' Fister because Fister "wasn't one of our best five going forward." You think you can take it from there?
Eighteen months from now, August 2013, it's Felix, Paxton, Hultzen, Taijuan and exactly one guy from The Field. Who won't be Vargas.
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3* Iwakuma unless his arm is shredded, in which case ... um, what DO MLB teams do with NPB free agents who are hurt?
Figure a 30% chance that his arm is feeling good in the first half, in which case we'll see who the best pitcher in Japan was, Yu Fewl.
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4 Noesi. The guy's game is very simple, very repeatable, and 100+ ERA+ effective. They gave up Pineda for him. He's in there.
SSI doesn't know where it stands on Noesi. I honestly think that he was getting swingthru's on his slider because MLB hitters were amazed that it did not break. Gimme a pass on filing Noesi until May, wouldja?
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5 Paxton or Hultzen, whichever is more overwhelming. It's going to be a whale of a contest. Go with Paxton, who will drop jaws farther open. To an audience that hadn't seen them before, Clayton Kershaw would turn heads faster than Cliff Lee would.
Weird how, one Pineda later, the very next Pineda, the next year, comes in stealth again. If James Paxton is the M's 2nd-best pitcher in camp -- there is an 80% chance of that being the case -- they can't keep him back. And they wouldn't want to.
The delicious situation will occur if Iwakuma's thrashed and Millwood is throwing lousy and Hultzen has a 13-inning scoreless streak going. SSI's dream rotation, Felix-Paxton-Hultzen-Vargas-Noesi.
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6 Millwood or Iwakuma - Dr. D figures a 75% chance that one or more of these two will be scratched due to basic ability to throw a baseball hard, but will exit having served their purposes: they'll have put Paxton and Hultzen into fighting-for-scraps-of-meat Vick City.
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7 Furbush. The super-finesse analysis 'round the 'net is keen. The real problem with Charlie Furbush is not elusive. His mechanics are way max-effort, graceless, and he's wild -- not wild so as to walk people, wild so as to center pitches for home runs.
A year or two from now, if he's healthy despite the inverted W, he'll likely find his release point and pull a Gio Gonzalez type of breakthrough.
I'd have him in AAA, if possible, logging innings.
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8 Beavan is a stoploss, obviously, a Brad Radke wannabe with a strikeout rate WAY short of minimum for his template.
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9 Ramirez and the field.
It's volatile. You got Felix, four different #4 proven starters, and two rookies who are wayyyyyyy better than the #4 starters. Let's us-and-Felix watch the doggies break out of the gate and tear around the corner.
BABVA,
Dr D