SSI cosigns the Chone Figgins idea
.......... though we're not brimming with confidence that the idea will hold up.
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=== Consider the Source, Dept. ===
The best objective source on Figgins, that is to say one not from Seattle, is over at BaseballHQ and their expectation is:
| COMPONENT SKILL | 2012 bounceback | 2011 train wreck |
| AVG | 250 | 188 |
| OBP | 325 | 243 |
| SLG | 310 | 243 |
| BABIP | .300 | .220 |
| EYE | 0.67 | 0.50 |
| PX | 50 | 42 |
| SX | 100 | 100 |
| RC/27 | 3.6 | 1.7 |
And Ron sez,
"Hip injury caused him to miss final two months, but things were bad long before then. To hit this poorly, you have to be both bad (see dreadful PX, bad expected AVG of .238) and unlucky (see BABIP).
"Good news is that his AVG should rebound some. Bad news is that he's at an age where those one-trick speed skills should rebound."
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=== STOPLOSS, Dept. ===
If Chone Figgins is producing 1.7 runs per 27 outs in April, he'll be out of the leadoff spot by game 10 and out of the lineup by game 15. Shall we start a pool? ... Hey, let's...
If you're a Mariner fan, DON'T pencil in 650 ABs' worth of a .188 Chone Figgins. That's not going to happen. They're sweet-talking Figgins because they have to sweet-talk him. G-Money talked about mental midgets. Well, if there's any way to prescribe anti-anxiety drugs to a head case, you do it. Give it ten games.
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=== NEGATIVE INDICATORS ===
Two things bug me about Figgins, his age and his park. I mean, aside from his 9,000 outs in 2011 and his "sure, I'll play around the diamond on condition that I play every day" shtick...
Watching 2011, Figgins seemed a terrible match for the park to me. When he did connect with a pitch, the ball seemed to have a Safeco-esque parachute on it... I dunno, though. Probably that was just his pathetic little decelerating arm swings. Why? Because in 2010, his BABIP was .320 as a Mariner. So, that factoid is a relief. It's not impossible, exactly, for him to find holes.
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Figgins is 34, and most overachievers are well-and-truly done by then. SSI does not like Figgins' age. Joey Cora, in my mind a similar player when standing in the batter's box, retired at 33.
Riddle me this, Batman. How many players had terrible years at age 32 AND at age 33 ... and then a good one at 34?
Not many, but Brett Butler is also a similar hitter to Figgins, and he was terrific from ages 33-37. The basic job of getting on base, and running, is one of the few baseball jobs that can usually be done well at age 35.
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In a vacuum - strictly from a baseball standpoint - we'd get Seager or Liddi in there, flush Chone Figgins, and get on with the rebuild. That's the idea, right? Bring in players we can win our next pennant with?
But politics and financial considerations exist. Nobody's got $18,000,000 to spare. Even if you got it, you don't got it to spare, know what I mean?
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=== Key Takeaway ===
Shandler projects Figgins to hit 250/325/310 with 30+ SB's (prorated) and a 3.6 runs per game offense. Okay, are you ready? Go look up Chone Figgins' 2010, year before last, his first year as a Mariner. Shandler projects Figgins to his 2010 levels, exactly.
Let's say that Figgy is excited about hitting leadoff, and his leg feels good, and he accelerates the bat through the strike zone (as he did in his one game at leadoff in 2011).
Let's say that he reproduced --- > not his star years of 2007 and 2009, but --- > his lukewarm year as a Mariner rookie. Would that be enough?
It would be passably enough, yes, it would. If he had a .340 OBP in Safeco, and swiped 42 bases, with an 85 OPS+, well .... that's into Joey Cora territory as a leadoff hitter. He wouldn't be a big problem.
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=== /cosigning Jay-Z Dept. ===
Chone Figgins is a whale of a third baseman when he's right. If he posts 2010 production in the leadoff spot, and scores 1.5 or 2.0 or 2.5 WAR, that'll work. A happy Chone Figgins, posting a .340 OBP, 40 SB's and a gold glove 3B at third base, that's 2.5 or even 3.0 WAR.
And it'll be another (invisible) +2.0 to +3.0 WAR out of the offseason. I would do it. Give Figgins a chance to be mediocre at the plate and good with the glove. The more I look at it, the more I like the idea, and I'm Chone Figgins' worst critic. All Riiiighty Then, Mr. Figgins, let's see the .340 OBP now that you're happy.
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If Figgins WON'T accelerate that stick through the strike zone, fine. Get Seager in there.