Felix = 29 slow pitches Thursday
Q. Felix never left, y'say?
A. There is a whale of a lot of luck in sports. Or, "baseball is a game of inches." Or, "90% of baseball is half mental." Or ....
Over Felix' 6-start travail, there were any number of balls that ticked off lines, kicked up chalk, nicked the yellow line going over the fence ... Give me a 9th-level Time Stop spell, and the ability to move a batted ball about three feet once or twice a game, and I'll cut all those 4-5 ER starts down to 1-2 runs.
The biggest single factor - not the only factor, but the biggest single one - was that Felix couldn't catch a break. In effect, you saw the outer bounds of the worst Felix is capable of, if he's throwing at his bottom end and every bounce is going against him.
So did he get racked up for 40 runs in five starts? No, he gave up 25 runs in six starts -- 4.2 per outing -- and Seattle melted down.
That's a testament to Felix' consistency. His consistency is simply incredible. It looked weird to see a hiccup in the consistency.
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Q. Bad luck was only one factor? What were the others?
A. Well, it's true that he's got to get used to pitching without his 94 fastball. Once in a while he over-challenges with the new 91-92 fastball.
But there is a factor that annoys Dr. D: he falls in love with his 89 MPH changeup, and if he's throwing 91 fastball, 91 cutter, 89 change, a few 86 sliders .... the batters can cheat, time their swings, and nobody's in between. Kelly Gaffney pointed out this velo separation issue.
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Q. Felix wasn't tipping? It was velocity separation, you think?
A. Tipping was a first muddled guess by Dr. D, just because the batters were never out in front, never checking their swings.
Following the last two games, we triangulate the reality: That if Felix is only going to throw 10%, 15% of his pitches offspeed then --- > the batters can cheat 89 MPH, ignore 82 MPH, and tip their caps if Felix ever gets a curve over.
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Q. Felix established his curve against the Red Sox?
A. Read it and weep. This is the Brooks Baseball velocity scatterchart from June 28 against the Red Sox, with 29 pitches clocked at less than 86 MPH:
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In sharp contrast, here's the velo scatterchart when he was mashed by the Padres on 6.12, with only 13 offspeed pitches -- few enough that the hitters could ignore them:
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So you know it's no accident, here is the velo chart from June 1, against the White Sox: also a piddling 13 pitches below 86 MPH ...
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Q. Is 13 vs 29 really the difference-maker here?
A. Let's not argue about it. Watch a game. Felix dropped the hammer in early and often. He ESTABLISHED the overhand curve.
The Boston Red Sox were early on the curve, late on the fastball, just looked like they were guessing wrong every pitch ... under those circumstances the 5-way pitch movement was untouchable.
Do you remember watching Pedro Martinez? Every time he wound up, you were scared out of your shorts that he was going to crack off that yellow hammer. The curve was in your head every pitch. You might look up at the end of the game and he'd only have thrown 20 of them, but ... he tortured you with it. Nobody cheated on Pedro's fastball, because he enjoyed showing them up.
Felix, the last two games, has been dropping the hammer. That's got them in between. That's all.
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