Add new comment

.

So the pro scouts rave about Paxton as having #1, #2 starter stuff and usually they are not giving much credit for the curve ball.  What are they talking about?

.

=== Fastball ===

In the AFL Rising Stars game, Paxton was clocking 90-93 ... it was clear that he was taking it easy, not finishing his pitches, not putting his shoulder into it.  Maybe he didn't want to get hurt, revving up from a cold start.

Even so, the gun looked kinda slow; the catcher's mitt was yanking as the pitch slammed it and the hitters were behind several times.  Mayo, in the booth, gave Paxton credit for an upper 90's fastball earlier in the 2012 season

In 2011, we ran this article Let the Wookiee Win, which demonstrated the amazing proportion of LHP + 90 MPH success stories there are in the majors:

There were 58 starting pitchers in the AL and NL who averaged 90.0 MPH or more on their fastballs last year.  Of these, 12 threw with their left hands:

SP	MPH	2011 ERA+
David Price	94.8	107 (and 144 in 2010)
Derek Holland	94.2	113
C.C. Sabathia	93.8	147
Clayton Kershaw	93.4	163
Matt Harrison	92.8	131
Jon Lester	92.8	122 (worst year of his life)
Gio Gonzalez	92.5	130
Ricky Romero	92.1	146
Cole Hamels	91.7	138
John Danks	91.6	97 (and 111 lifetime)
Cliff Lee	91.5	161
C.J. Wilson	91.0	152

That's every left hand starter who threw 90.0 or above.  

And in 2012, here's the list of LHP's with fastballs anywhere 90 and above:

• David Price
• Matt Moore
• Clayton Kershaw
• Gio Gonzalez
• Derek Holland
• Jon Lester
• CC Sabathia
• Matt Harrison
• CJ Wilson
• Cliff Lee
• Chris Sale
• Cole Hamels
• Ricky Romero
• Jon Niese

Maybe throwing 90.0 MPH and above isn't a guarantee that your LHP will be a Top Of Rotation starter.  But you're telling me you don't like your blinkin' chances here?  "Lots of teams have better young pitching to offer the Royals," do they.  Wake up and watch a ballgame, dude!

We don't say that every minor leaguer who ever touched 91 MPH is a mortal lock to win fifteen games.  The above guys do a lot more than just "touch 91 MPH."  They throw hard, and they've got secondary pitches, and they throw strikes.  

A lefthander with stuff as electric as James Paxton's, who has shown the ability to throw strikes?  Yes he IS two-thirds of the way there.  Most fans have not noticed this general truism about baseball talent development; they undersell the value of high-octane stuff from the left side.

...............

Paxton doesn't throw as hard as Cole Hamels or Jon Niese.  He throws as hard as David Price.  You're at the higher end of that velocity table. NOW how do you like your chances?

..............

Paxton's fastball is heavy, "CLONKING" the bats when they make contact.  He's a groundball/K pitcher, like Bedard was.

.............

Paxton's got the EASY velocity, the velocity that comes off leverage and long arms.  He's got the velo that will sustain in the 7th and 8th, the Kershaw velocity.

.

=== Deception ===

Lemme catch a blow here.  Take Sabathia's fastball, Bedard's curve, and now tack on George Sherrill's deception.

Paxton has a real high front side, hides the ball, comes through with great arm action, and you just flat can't read the curve until it's halfway there - wayyyy too late.  Like Zito used to.

Paxton hides the ball.  A lot better than most guys.  Move on.

.

===Curve ===

If Paxton didn't have anything but the heater, he'd be a Grade A pitching prospect.  For easy velocity, for workhorse mechanics and for deception.  

The curve is the best thing about him.

So why are Seattle-ites going "ahhhhh, he ain't as good as the good kids, but he's a'ight." ... ?  Because 99% of 'net rats have to see a pitcher win before they perceive that he's got the goods.  At what point did any other blog believe that Michael Pineda was a first-class pitching talent?  Some of them are still arguing that he never was.  Takes a lot to get past a label.  Paxton's is that of being wild.

Whateva man.  :- )  Other fans will wait around to see whether Paxton's good.  You, the discerning SSI consumer, know exactly how good he is, and how good he's going to be ... pending one asterisk.  And you know what the asterisk is, too.

That being ... 

NEXT