Second Verse, Same as the First
Aren't we on verse ten of this song by now?
In the shouts, blissedj had this comment:
Team OPS 97 or not we still need more bats. We need more than Seager, Ibanez and Morales to produce when the game is on the line.
Can't argue with that. And if this year is starting to feel like previous ones over the last decade, you're not mistaken.
In 2012 at game 64 our record was 27-37. In 2013? 27-37. That's not progress in the standings, for sure. We've scored 229 runs and allowed 276. The BOR is KILLING us, but we're still only on pace to give up 700 runs (720 is AL-average the last 3 years). OTOH, we're pro-rating out to just 580 runs on offense. (3.58 R/G). Last year's team with a MOTO of snot-nosed kids scored 619. Both sides of the ball need to pick it up, but only the pitching has players likely to get more callups. This offense needs to do it with the players they have, healthy or not... and they're not.
It's funny: I FEEL better about this year's team than last year's. We've demoted two hitters and I still feel better about it, like if we can just get Erasmo and Hultzen into the lineup to stop the 10-0 hemmhoraging from the back-end we might be able to play .500+ ball the rest of the year. But the offense is not producing runs. They certainly can't hit with RISP ( .199 BA and .670 OPS vs. the .724, .735 and .765 OPS numbers of the three AL West teams we're trailing). Maybe that's luck - our BABIP is bad, and we've seen many hard-hit balls find gloves. We'd better hope it's luck that will turn around the rest of the year, because more offensive farm help isn't likely to be in the cards.
When the year started I thought this was a .500 teams, maybe a couple games over. That's not a bad place to be, to play it out and see if you can squeeze out a few extra wins to get into playoff contention. The BOR disaster cost us, injuries have as well... but other teams have suffered injuries and continued to succeed. We had no depth to handle that early adversity. Wait, I take that back: we did have depth (Ibanez and Bay have played fine in roles they were not counted on for this year, and Shoppach is doing all he can) but it could not overcome the terrible performances of the youth as well as those bad breaks of luck early on.
And the terrible youth performances are what might get Jack fired, IMO. Watching Fister become a top-10 pitcher in another org while the proceeds of that trade have meant nothing to us is bad. Seeing Carp club for the Bo Sox while Smoak struggles to hit singles is also bad. Montero's terrible performance, Ackley's horrendous plate struggles... these are not players who are scuffling, they are players who are drowning.
Is that because they're bad players? If Ackley and Montero go elsewhere and have their talent start to produce the answer will be emphatically no. But can they produce here? If they would, when would that be? Again, it FEELS like we have a raft of talent ready to storm the beaches, but the only talents that have actually stormed anything in the last several years are Seager, Pineda and the bullpen kids. Pineda is long gone. Sandy's been on this train a long while: for whatever reason the Mariners throughout several regime changes have not produced a single bonafide success at the plate since A-Rod, the greatest talent of his generation. Here's hoping Seager is that success, and merely the first of many. Without that, we're in a ton of trouble even with our prospects and high draft picks.
I love all the varied minor league talent we've added, but is this regime the one that can mold all that talent into productive major leaguers, or is that some other organization that will wind up doing that with our drafted players? Jack needs more success on that front soon to justify keeping his job instead of turning over the farm bursting with good talents to someone who CAN take advantage of that bounty.
DaddyO wrapped up his frustration with this bow:
Despite whatever criticisms you might level at those other organizations, they're all run significantly better than ours. They're all run differently, but all better than the Seattle Mariners. The proof is in the pudding.
That works for me too.
The Mariners have won 90+ games just five times in their history. Five. You remember 2007, the cute team with 88 wins and some false hope? That was the SEVENTH BEST WINNING PERCENTAGE IN TEAM HISTORY.
The A's have won 90+ seven times since 2000. The Angels have done it six times, with a couple of 89 win seasons and some fancy World Series ring or another they must have found in a Cracker Jack box. Texas has done it each of the last 3 years, and are certainly on pace to do it again this year.
That's our direct competition. Those aren't AL East teams or NL juggernauts we don't have to care about til the World Series we've never made comes around. Those are the teams we have to leapfrog to get into the playoffs. Did I expect to do that this year? No. But I did expect to be in contention for a wild-card berth in August. We still can be, it will just take some work. A lot of work. And a MUCH better, more consistent performance than we've seen thus far.
Until we do provide those performances, both from the staff and the lineup, our company is not with our above "rivals" but with the Lastros - who have a winning record against us while being one of only two teams in the AL with a worse record than we have.
Same as the first, indeed. We've certainly heard this song before. Hoping for a sweep of the Astros (no more L until we can win some games against those dudes) to put us back on course. Gotta stop shooting ourselves in the feet sometime, right? Jack has the rest of the season left to prove his guys can improve their aim.
~G
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Gordon