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Nelson Cruz - Con

Here are six arguments against Cruz, courtesy of Tyler's Think Tank. You go amig-O.

In anti-SSI style, Dr. D's reactions are concise (for once!) so as to leave room for point/counterpoint.

He's Old

Therefore you're "paying for the decline phase." This is true of every free agent, and was the argument that Tony Blengino made against the Robinson Cano signing.

Okay, no free agents. That's our new org policy.

He's Injury-Prone

True. Big guys are, especially this big guy.

In this specific case, Dr. D covets an Oakland A's situation, 9 players filling 5 spots. If you want to play tomorrow, give me a pro at-bat today.

That's also Dr. D's reaction to the chimera of "how many slow cleanup hitters do we need?" In Billy Beane's case, frequently about six. In 2006, when they WON the division, they had:

The hulking, NO-glove Frank Thomas slugging .545 and taking ALL DH at-bats
Dan Johnson at 1B
Nick Swisher, Milton Bradley, a 33-year-old Jay Payton, and Bobby Kielty*

In other years, it's been even more extreme. In 2007, they had:

Dan Johnson at 1b
Mike Piazza at DH (there's a Kendrys Morales type fer ya)
Jack Cust (?!) getting 500 at-bats, some in the OF
Daric Barton at 1B
Nick Swisher
Travis Buck
Milton Bradley, Shannon Stewart, and a gimp Eric Chavez

Think of it like the Seahawks' defensive line. Whoever is playing well is in there. I don't get the blog-o-sphere's aversion to competition; it's not like the Mariners are not going to have a backup shortstop, now is it?

He Doesn't Hit Well Outside Texas

We've dealt with this. You don't just take a guy's road stats and double them; it doesn't work that way, as Justin Upton showed all y'all.

Cruz' power transcends the park. That's my, and Zduriencik's, considered opinion. (The Mariners diligently chart batted balls against their own stadium before they pursue hitters.)

Still, there is some chance that Cruz would slug .450 as a Mariner, rather than .500. See the previous section.

His Offense is One-Dimensional

Yes, the precise dimension the Mariners need, to counter the LHP problem. Right handed power.

So the Portland Trail Blazers lack one dimension: a dominant defensive center. Then Dikembe Mutombo comes available, and you avoid him because he's not a jack of all trades.

(Cruz' lifetime batting average is .266 and his OBP is about league average. He's not Steve Balboni; he's Michael Morse, if Morse played more.)

He's a Defensive Liability

Although if Felix fans 10 men and throws 11 grounders, the range of the RF matters somewhat less than if Aaron Harang is on the mound.

The same applies to 3 other Mariner starters. IFF Taijuan and Paxton are in the rotation, the Mariners SHOULD be factoring in the devalued nature of fly balls in the game.

.......

True, Nelson Cruz is lousy with the glove and he's getting worse. You want to be thoughtful in your deployment of him -- play him deep, keeping the ball in front of him, and choose those games in which groundballers are pitching.

He Just Got Busted for PED's

Links on request ... but such players do NOT decline after the bust.

If he's suspended? See the section on 9-to-make-5. You don't have to pay him, so what have you lost?

Bonus Section

There's an argument against Cruz. That argument is "Giancarlo Stanton." Or it's "Steve Braun." Or it's "Anybody better than Nelson Cruz, who solves our 2013 problems."

It is NOT the argument of "we don't want 30 homers, because HR's are overrated; just give the money to Howard Lincoln."

....

Nelson played 2/3 of one season in 2013, and hit 27 homers. That's the same as 41 homers, when he's in the lineup, and each one of those homers would have been out of Safeco.

It could be that we've lost sight of what 30, 40 homers look like. That would be understandable, because in the Blengino Era nobody has been out of the low 20's, other than Rauuuul and Russell Branyan. In 2010, they were led by Branyan's 15 (!!).

But trust me: