Yes on all your points.
Well, except that he's going to hit 34 homers. He isn't. Like it or not, Arlington is a friendly place for him. He can't take it with him. He's ISO'ed .262 there over his career. He's .193 on the road. That ain't all home cooking. I said that .180 was perfectly predictable for him in Safeco. That remains a very safe bet. Would Vegas set the Over/Under at that number or would it be .190? All the same, it isn't chopped liver. Ergo: His value.
Especially yes on the idea that Stanton or Braun is the best argument against Cruz. There are a few others, of course. I'm assuming we chased them a bit. I hope we did. If we didn't get them, then Cruz is certainly better than Almonte, I suspect.
And all of that is a bigger yes if we don't commit for three years, I think.
Cruz is a "proceed with some caution" type of guy. Sounds like we're doing that.
He's not the gal that would be my first pick to take to the prom....but he's a decent fallback option.
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Here are six arguments against Cruz, courtesy of Tyler's Think Tank. You go amig-O.
In anti-SSI style, Dr. D's reactions are concise (for once!) so as to leave room for point/counterpoint.
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He's Old
Therefore you're "paying for the decline phase." This is true of every free agent, and was the argument that Tony Blengino made against the Robinson Cano signing.
Okay, no free agents. That's our new org policy.
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He's Injury-Prone
True. Big guys are, especially this big guy.
In this specific case, Dr. D covets an Oakland A's situation, 9 players filling 5 spots. If you want to play tomorrow, give me a pro at-bat today.
That's also Dr. D's reaction to the chimera of "how many slow cleanup hitters do we need?" In Billy Beane's case, frequently about six. In 2006, when they WON the division, they had:
- The hulking, NO-glove Frank Thomas slugging .545 and taking ALL DH at-bats
- Dan Johnson at 1B
- Nick Swisher, Milton Bradley, a 33-year-old Jay Payton, and Bobby Kielty*
In other years, it's been even more extreme. In 2007, they had:
- Dan Johnson at 1b
- Mike Piazza at DH (there's a Kendrys Morales type fer ya)
- Jack Cust (?!) getting 500 at-bats, some in the OF
- Daric Barton at 1B
- Nick Swisher
- Travis Buck
- Milton Bradley, Shannon Stewart, and a gimp Eric Chavez
Think of it like the Seahawks' defensive line. Whoever is playing well is in there. I don't get the blog-o-sphere's aversion to competition; it's not like the Mariners are not going to have a backup shortstop, now is it?
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He Doesn't Hit Well Outside Texas
We've dealt with this. You don't just take a guy's road stats and double them; it doesn't work that way, as Justin Upton showed all y'all.
Cruz' power transcends the park. That's my, and Zduriencik's, considered opinion. (The Mariners diligently chart batted balls against their own stadium before they pursue hitters.)
Still, there is some chance that Cruz would slug .450 as a Mariner, rather than .500. See the previous section.
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His Offense is One-Dimensional
Yes, the precise dimension the Mariners need, to counter the LHP problem. Right handed power.
So the Portland Trail Blazers lack one dimension: a dominant defensive center. Then Dikembe Mutombo comes available, and you avoid him because he's not a jack of all trades.
(Cruz' lifetime batting average is .266 and his OBP is about league average. He's not Steve Balboni; he's Michael Morse, if Morse played more.)
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He's a Defensive Liability
Although if Felix fans 10 men and throws 11 grounders, the range of the RF matters somewhat less than if Aaron Harang is on the mound.
The same applies to 3 other Mariner starters. IFF Taijuan and Paxton are in the rotation, the Mariners SHOULD be factoring in the devalued nature of fly balls in the game.
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True, Nelson Cruz is lousy with the glove and he's getting worse. You want to be thoughtful in your deployment of him -- play him deep, keeping the ball in front of him, and choose those games in which groundballers are pitching.
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He Just Got Busted for PED's
Links on request ... but such players do NOT decline after the bust.
If he's suspended? See the section on 9-to-make-5. You don't have to pay him, so what have you lost?
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Bonus Section
There's an argument against Cruz. That argument is "Giancarlo Stanton." Or it's "Steve Braun." Or it's "Anybody better than Nelson Cruz, who solves our 2013 problems."
It is NOT the argument of "we don't want 30 homers, because HR's are overrated; just give the money to Howard Lincoln."
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Nelson played 2/3 of one season in 2013, and hit 27 homers. That's the same as 41 homers, when he's in the lineup, and each one of those homers would have been out of Safeco.
It could be that we've lost sight of what 30, 40 homers look like. That would be understandable, because in the Blengino Era nobody has been out of the low 20's, other than Rauuuul and Russell Branyan. In 2010, they were led by Branyan's 15 (!!).
But trust me:
- Robinson Cano #3
- 34 homers in the #4 slot
- Added to last year's offense
And you'll like the look of it. You liked the look of Kendrys Morales; you'll like the look of Cano and Cruz a lot more.
BABVA,
Dr D
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Comments
OK, so assuming Cruz now is on the team... he plays what 150 games, starting 125 games as a guess... with roughly 1100 innings maybe... with roughly 900 innings in the OF, and 200 or so at DH.. So, based on last year's rate, we are now at roughly 30 homers... Safeco effect - probably less.
So the rest of the OF/1B/DH's play how many innings... assuming roughly 1450 innings per year per position... 1B, DH, LF, CF, RF = 7250 innings
Hart - 130 games, starting 110 as a guess? so roughly 1000 innings... with 700 innings at DH, 200 at OF, and maybe 100 at 1B
Smoak - 120 games, starting 105 as a guess? so roughly 900 innings... with all 900 innings at 1B
LoMo - 110 games, starting 85 as a guess? so roughly 800 innings... with 500 innings in OF, 200 at 1B, and maybe 100 at DH
Ackley - 150 games, starting 130 games as a guess? so roughly 1200 innings... with 1150 innings in OF and maybe 25 at 1B and 2B?
Guti - 100 games, starting 75 games as a guess? so roughly 700 innings... with 500 in OF and 200 at DH
Saunders - 140 games, starting 120 games as a guess? so 1200 innings... with all 1200 in OF
Bloomquist - 110 games, starting 50 games as a guess? so 600 innings... with at least 200 innings in OF
Then Zunino / Buck / other playing 100+ innings at DH...
That is rough, and the numbers do not quite line up... and obviously no one gets called up from Tacoma for these positions...
BUT this is roughly what Lloyd has to try to do... so I guess it is possible, but keeping guys healthy, happy, and maintaining a decent defense..
Good Luck Lloyd...
This time with 40% less snark.
Point 1: He's old and declining, as free agents generally are, so therefore we shouldn't ever sign free agents (in a mocking tone).
Counter point: I wouldn't argue that you shouldn't ever sign an aging declining player, rather you should sign one that has further to fall and still be useful. If he starts declining this year, which at age 34 might be more likely than not, then you go from 265/320/490 (last 3 years average) to what 250/300/460? Ask yourself this, which of those two lines is he more likely to produce this year in Safeco? And for how many games?
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Point 2: He's injury prone/big base clogger
Counter point: The example you gave about the 2006 A's misses the mark for me. Frank Thomas put up a wRC+ of 139 that year in exchange for his -15 defensive contribution, not the 116,106,122 Cruz has put up the last 3 years. And according to B-R, Beane paid 500k for those 2.5 WAR. As to the rest of the regulars on that squad that you called slow cleanup hitters, Swisher, Bradley, Kielty Jay Payton and Jason Kendall all posted positive base-running scores individually. They weren't a team of DH's.
The next year, 2007 they subbed out clogger Big Hurt for clogger Cust, and Cust put up a 912 OPS and was paid 400k pre-arb for his efforts. The rest of the team was slightly positive as a group in terms of base-running value. For comparison Cruz has averaged about -3 the last 3 years. So for those two cases I think the comparisons and insinuations were off the mark.
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Point 3: He doesn't hit well outside Texas
I do agree that you can't just look at road numbers and extrapolate from there what to expect. But if you don't think there will be some drop in pure OPS numbers, well, want to bet a dollar? That's why I think using wRC+ is a good stat because it park neutralizes.
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Point 4: He's one-dimensional
I would argue that they've already done quite a bit to shore up the vL problem. Cano's career against lefties is 788 OPS, Corey Hart kills lefties (if he can play) and Gutierrez has pretty good success against lefties (until he breaks). I don't like the Mutumbo analogy because the offense doesn't just need right handed power, it needs all around good hitters.
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Point 5: Busted for PED's
I would like to see the links you've got for how returning PED users stats don't deflate. That seems strange so I'd love to read about it.
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If you told me that Cruz is going to OPS 825 this year and play -6 D for 120 games, shoot, sign me up. Yesterday. Problem is I think the likelihood of 750 and -9 is higher. It's not my money, so I don't really care if they sign him for 10/per, I just don't agree with your dismissions of the red flags.
No no no. Spend slightly more and you can land a Jimenez. Then trade for a real outfielder like Span. Give this team you've invested $240mil in a chance.
If people were saying that, I'd be right there with them.
If that's what we're saying, "Sure, if he plays well by his own standards, that's a player you want for $10M. But I don't think he'll play well next year." Absolutely. That's reasonable.
In support of the point you're making ... Shandler projects Cruz to reprise his 2012, essentially his worst season, batting for a 265/320/450 line. If that's what Cruz is going to do, I'll take the kids, Hart, and LoMo.
if you'd post the links about steroid users returning.
There were two articles on the players who have gotten 50-game suspensions, charting before and after performance, and showing a surprising lack of decline. I almost sat down and wrote a Ryan Braun series, based on the findings -- either on Fangraphs or Hardball Times, I think -- but got sidetracked. I remember thinking, "Wow, so Braun *isn't* a candidate to lose slugging percentage?!"
I don't say that it's the end of the discussion, of course; I think it IS a concern, whether a player will decline, post-ban. But the evidence is mixed.
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If I can't find the articles again, it's easy enough for anybody to take the list of players who have received suspensions and look over their performances afterward. Palmeiro, Mike Morse, Mike Cameron, Manny Ramirez, Jhonny Peralta, Miguel Tejada, etc.
I think, after you "normalize" for the player's aging anyway, it's pretty intuitive that these banned players have not collapsed after their suspensions. At BaseballHQ, for example, they don't adjust player projections after receiving suspensions.
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I was worried about Richard Sherman being caught for "Adderall" but obviously, he had no performance dropoff after coming under the magnifying glass.
Like I say LR, it's not the end of the discussion. Could be that players do drop off.
When I read "such players do NOT decline after the bust" I took that as declaration that the issue has been solved. "Could be that players do drop off" seems more reasonable. There would be a lot of factors to try to sort through: age, proving when a player actually started taking and when he stopped, what types of substances the player took, etc. And that's all assuming any player you're trying to project ever even quit taking PED's. There are players taking banned substances even now that are passing any and all drug tests they are administered. Some players only get caught because of paper trails, not failed tests. Anyway...
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An obvious case would be Melky Cabrera. His career high in any season for WAR was 1.6 in 2006. He posted a -1.4!! in 2010 with the Braves, with a .288 BABIP mind you. THE VERY NEXT YEAR he put up 3.7 WAR as a Royal with career highs in nearly every category. He kept it up with a 4.4 WAR season with the Giants the next year before getting busted. He signed as a free agent with the Blue Jays and promptly returned to earth with a -.9 WAR season (with a .313 BABIP lol) in just over 1/2 of year. We don't know precisely when he started and stopped taking PED's, but his timeline seems to indicate rather strongly a correlation between his use and his performance.
I will look around and see if I can find the articles you are talking about. It's a really fascinating issue.
I should have said "Most MLB shot-callers worry a lot less about post-suspension dropoff than fans realize."
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Yep, Cabrera's a good example of what you're talking about.
And, after all, if ARod taking sublingual tabs in the 1st inning was NOT helping him, then why would he be taking them? ... maybe the guys who do not drop off are simply using PED's more carefully after the ban.