Scott Van Slyke vs Nelson Cruz
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Mo' Dawg sez,
Oops! This was #2 (from MLBTR): The Dodgers still have an outfield surplus with Andre Ethier, Carl Crawford, Matt Kemp, and Yasiel Puig in tow, but they don't appear to be in any hurry to break it up. Well, well...there is no mention of Scott Van Slyke there. He isn't playing 1B with A-Gone on the roster. I still would love to see us make a run at him. Especially if Cruz is going to be a three year deal. Figuring both to get 585 AB's, Zips would have Cruz at .259-.316-.469 with 29 doubles/27 homers. Van Slyke would be .249-.325-.420 with 29 doubles and 18 homers (Zips figures Van Slyke for 483 PA's, so I've adjusted). Van Slyke K's 25% of the time, Cruz 22%. Those 9 HR's (difference) certainly aren't worth a third year...if Van Slyke is available. BTW, Zips has Seager at .264-.328-.414 and Kendrys at .263-.319-.425. I don't know how accurate Zips are....But the comparison is interesting.
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Dr. D sez, Let's tick the points off on our fingers.
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0. I hereby accuse Mo' Dawg of liking this guy, only because he likes the 7-iron finish to the swing.
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1. Scott Van Slyke is a player who possesses Dunn-, Thome-like physical power. You could slo-mo this two-hand bludgeon shot to get a feel. Remember, he's 6-and-a-half feet tall, and they admit to 250 lbs.
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2. Despite this, Fangraphs says he is (nominally) a plus defensive outfielder, at +8 runs per 150. (Say WHAAaaaaa?!) BaseballHQ gives his speed score as 80, with 100 being average, with 58 being Nelson Cruz. (Neither Van Slyke nor anybody else, short of Jose Canseco, has Cruz' lack of instincts.)
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3. Van Slyke last year, as a rookie, got 2.7 WAR (prorated). That makes him a very, very sound Fangraphs player as RBI men go.
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4. Van Slyke's leg kick is (a) beyond ugly and (b) about as necessary as Percy Harvin on the Seattle Seahawks.
Let's see, what's "beyond ugly" ... the dictionary gives "repulsive in appearance." I'll ride the bus to that stop, yes.
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5. Van Slyke has a journeyman background similar to that of Jack Cust -- he conquered AAA in 2010, slugged .600 there all of THREE (3) years ago and has been languishing due to a label of "too many holes in his swing." (Always challenge the scout with, "Which hole exactly?")
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6. Van Slyke's Power Index in the first half last year was an un-possible 212. He's got a good fly ball rate and a smooth, natural pull tendency, like Mike Carp. In other words, LrKrBoi29, he could some day hit 51 homers.
Then, in the second half, his BB/K was an outstanding 0.63. This is (again) a Mike Carp type of adaptability and malleability.
If his swing reminds you of somebody, that would be Richie Sexson. Except Van Slyke isn't as gangly.
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7. Shandler sums up by saying "a tantalizing end-game power speculation." That's Shandler-speak for "gives you one chance in five, to become the next Chris Davis."
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Of all the points above, Dr. D is most fixated on #6. Van Slyke gives the first impression that, like Cust and Carp, he shouldn't have been mis-labeled as a guy with holes in his swing.
Dr. D stands to be corrected by any scout with more detailed intel. But, pending that fine-grain intel, then Scott Van Slyke is the kind of Russ Branyan flier that GM Detecto would indeed wager his career on. (In bulk orders, of course.)
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Dr's R/X
Think Mike Carp, except right handed and SuperSized. Or you could think of him as an intersection of Carp, Richie Sexson and a silverback gorilla.
Zduriencik, when he brings in a Respected MLB(TM) Veteran, it ain't because he's in the mood to gamble. Right now Zduriencik is looking for assured RBI. (When he "discovered" the unproven Russ Branyan, that was because Zduriencik wasn't gambling. The two knew each other in Milwaukee.)
Here's the thing, though. If you're playing 9-to-make-5, that's precisely when gambling is in order. You've got LoMo, you've got Corey Hart alongside Justin Smoak, you've got Michael Saunders and Franklin Gutierrez, well ... the next guy in might just as well be a Jack Cust or Mike Carp. That's what Billy Beane does.
Like Mo', I'd rather see Zduriencik make a move on a Van Slyke type here, than a Cruz type. Considering the roster dynamics. Somebody in that crew is liable to go Russ Branyan for you. Remember him, Jack?
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The broad point here is: Dr. D isn't enthused about Nelson Cruz, either, although his calling-card Proven RBI (TM) are undersold by 98-lb. sabertistas who play too much Strat-O-Matic.
That said, SSI would much rather go with a cheap 9-to-make-5 RBI men, and spend money on a #3 starter. All day long. SSI likes Van Slyke better than Cruz, and in this specific case, it also likes [Van Slyke + LoMo + Hart As a Concept] better than [Cruz As a Concept].
Good stuff,
Dr D