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This is just a first-generation triangulation, which is the hardest.  As y'know, SSI is a think tank.  Help us out here.

The thing I like best about a Price deal, is that (1) if you cough up Taijuan, you might get a value on Zobrist, and (2) I think K-Pax is a good ways ahead of Taijuan in line.

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Franklin + ? for Zobrist

According to the best sources, which are okay sources, "has been going on for weeks."  This pairing of names is all over the place.  It's logical of course, especially the positions.

It says here that you've got the definition of a win-win, balanced trade.

Franklin and sweeteners for --- >a final puzzle-piece type guy?  You tell me.

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Sense and Sensibility, Dept.

According the the MGL Axiom and according to Dr. D's observations, the most recent predent is the most important one (thought not to say the definitive one).  There was just now a Grade A starter sold on the white market for $101 simoleons.  Let's be clear about it:

Player	Ability	SSI Remark
Samardiza	Grade A	"Super-sexy" upside and club match
Hammels	Solid #3 SP	Better than, e.g., Chris Young or Roenis Elias
Addison Russell, SS spect	1-10 prospect in MLB	The glamor club-controls 4 WAR guy
Billy McKinney, class A CF	Throwin	Baseball HQ grade:  8D (cf Tyler O'Neill, M's)
Dan Straily	AAA SP	One good year, then imploded (cf Erasmo Ramirez)

In other words, the Cubs accepted a single K-Pax, Taijuan-type prospect in return for ---> Jeff Samadjiza and a good bit more.

 

Fans consistently put together a package of "three jaw-dropping prospects" for 

a single playoff difference-maker - with 1 year left on his contract.  Then they write complaining that any single 2-WAR rookie, by himself is worth more than the incoming superstar.  :- )

This is understandable.  But let's be clear that a great many trades involve no such thing.  This is an important The reality of July trades do not jibe as closely with MLBTradeRumors as we fans believe they do.  Well, maybe with Tampa...

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King Richard for 25% of Everything England Owned

If there's one thing all of the "okay" sources agree on, it's that the Rays are demanding a Lionhearted-esque ransom for David Price.  (The Duke of Austria, in 1192 A.D., captured Richard and demanding 25% of everything England owned, public and private.  He got it.)

The Rays, some rumors (r-u-m-o-r-s) have it, want something akin to Taijuan, D.J., Franklin if not plenty more.  For SSI, that's just the end of it.  

We do not need pitching anyway!  The gap in ERA+, between Oakland/Seattle and the world, is vast.  We just used our pitching to take down the 1,000+ run /A's.

There's a bunch of outrageously discouraging pap about "the Mariners are playing for one game, on the road, against a better squad."

They are (1) playing for a 2013 World Championship.  One game on the road would be the worst thing they would receive for a playoff qualification.  And the 2015 fan following that resulted.  To characterize the entire 162-game season as "playing for one game" ..... wow.

(2) The Mariners need only a tiny lead -- or none -- to start a Cy Young pitcher (Felix or Iwakuma) in that "one game against a better squad."

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Deconstructing Taijuan

Taijuan has, the last 2 years, been one of the "potential Cy Young perennials" in the minors, along with Archie Bradley.  James once said the Red Sox ignore these players because "whoever they are, you can't trade for them."

Meaning, it could easily be that Taijuan -- whose career ERA in the bigs is 3+, and who has passed the MLB test with great makeup -- is at least as "sexy" as (say) Addison Russell.

Look, LrKrBoi29.  You go trade for Archie Bradley or Stephen Strasburg or Gerrit Cole.

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That said, Dr. D's last two looks at Taijuan -- in the majors -- brought two mildly negative reports:

• He seems farther away than we thought (that's no tragedy, but could affect his Net Value over 6 years)
• His overhand shoulder impingement is unpleasant (so was Roger Clemens' as a 22-year-old)

But Dr. D., latest evidence in, is back to his original and usual position.  K-Pax is protected on SSI's expansion list more than Taijuan.

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That said, I'm wavering a little toward Taijuan-for-Price if there is reasonable hope of Price extending.  But of course not if it takes Cameron's "Price, plus your next two best, plus more."

Taijaun and a bit?, for Price, and Walker for a bit?, for Zobrist ... SSI is in the mood to do this.

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Mariner Brainstorm

Spectator laid all this out in a related variation on July 7, proposing a 6-for-2 that bears on the Rays rumor today:

 

Player	Value	Dr D's remark
Price, TB	Playoff nightmare in Seattle	Tampa to deal with
Jennings, TB	4 years of club control, 110 OF	A bit
Elias, Sea	#3-4 starter, maybe fading	6 years club control, CJ Wilson stuff
Franklin, Sea		He and light ? = Zobrist; he and 0 = Jennings
Farquhar, Sea	10K+ reliever	"Sexy" #3, impact NOW, cheap player
Pike or Sanchez, Sea	#5 and #14 org	Victor Sanchez top-200 spect; Diaz 100-150.  Beane-type pilfer
Kivlehan
Almonte

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Cancel the fraction, by clearing Jennings vs Franklin, and you've got Spec offer 5 quality (not glamor) prospects --- > to induce the Rays to pull off Taijuan-plus.  

That is one whale of a lot of quality offered.  Danny Farquhar himself is very hard to acquire; remember when we've needed a single relief ace to stabilize our bullpen?  (The Rays are #12 in the league in bullpen WAR.)  I remember Lou Piniella complaining bitterly, "for a #2 starter they want THREE (3) players off your 25-man roster."  Seattle, in effect, coughs this up -- plus 3 significant prospects.

In principle, this is Dr. D's roto approach for sure.  And Billy Beane enjoys scanning down a prospect list, and selecting those he believes in.  (Suppose the Rays wants Edwin Diaz instead of Victor Sanchez?)

The Rays go for this, beautiful.

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Dr's Prognosis

Any time he can bait-and-switch Quantity for Quality, that's Dr. D's roto game.  You've got that 25-man roster thingy.  

Taijuan, Kivelahan, and Almonte, Dr. D is softening up to consider that for Price :- ) but then they owe you a concession back by softening on Zobrist / Jennings.  Can't ask for everything.

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Strategic Concerns

It's a lot easier to upgrade a 60 player to a 90 player, than a 100 player to a 130 player.  The M's are not forced to do something stupid for Price.

Too bad we can't get a deal like Beane got, though.

Cheers,

Dr D