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Q.  Why would anybody read an SSI "article" when --- > the shout box (SBox 5) is available?

A.  They don't.  We've been approached about using article area (below the fold) for encoded messages.  The Shout Box is Dr. D's first stop in the mornin'.  B'lee DAT.

I defy you to show me the baseball area that offers the SBox' blend of wit, wisdom, diverse personalities, "hard" news delivered on the nanosecond, and ... its absence of Dr. D.  Eh?  Thought not.

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Q.  What's the CIA encoded message on this trade?  Start with the depressing.

A.  It's depressing, to me, to focus 80% on what you PAY rather than what you RECEIVE.  

(In Rembrandt's "Rich Fool," you can palpably feel the old man's mezmerization with the cold metal.  He's in a deep hypnotic trance, lost in thought about all the things this metal means to him.

It feels a little claustrophobic, because in surrounding himself with the coinage, he's created a blockade situation.  Tightly blocked off is, um, Life.  Not "life" in the cliched sense, but "life" in the higher sense - the ability to grow, to be vital, to give, to be free, to manifest activity, to leave a legacy, etc.)

General principles aside, the Mariners did score a MOTO hitter, Safeco-proven, and gave nothing.  In this specific case, Dr. D would have snapped the Twins' hands off.  But in a depressed way.  This trade rat cheer, it is the quintessential Fangraphs trade.  Which does not make it wrong.

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Q.  Kendrys is Safeco-proven?

A.  His career Safeco line, this being the results he has achieved while playing inside the Seattle ballpark:

Other players who might hit .287/.340/.498 -- with 28 homers and 52 doubles -- inside the Park of Doom:

• Mike Trout
• Miguel Cabrera
• Edgar
• Nick Franklin, once he gets to Oakland's Park of Doom

We don't say he'll slug .500 again.  But we'll say it one last time:  Kendrys Morales can rake.

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Q.  Are 39 games in Minnesota an effective spring training?  Is it uncomfortable to trade for somebody who has NOT hit six homers in the last week?

A.  You never trade for that player.  A guy who hit six homers in the last 8 games, let's hold off on that deal.

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Q.  How about Kendrys getting too old?  He just now turned 31 in late June.

A.  Age-arcs defy a dogmatic analysis, but:

• Kendrys is a switch hitter, therefore not lacking a "tick" against either LHP or RHP - that's nice
• He is non-greedy, willing to line a double the other way - that's nice
• At his level of competence, a whale of a lot of players become horse manure at 31-32 ... that's not nice
• Do note that the M's, armed with internal info on his health, gym results, etc., offered 3 years

Here is Shandler on Kendrys going into 2014:

• PX (essentially "normalized" slugging) took a dip in 2013
• But 2nd half HR/F rebounded nicely
• xPX (expected SLG, derived from BABIP velocity) looks positive
• Contact rates, and BB%, set a nice floor
• Solid effort hitting RH (in 2013) adds to the good news
• Finally healthy?  UPSIDE:  return to 2009 glory in 2014

Wowza-pa-looza.  The component stats point to a player getting better?

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I've always taken Kendrys as a 70 HITter and a 55 PWR guy -- "fat Ichiro," Inside Pitch used to call him.  We saw this in the Twins' visit to Safeco.  

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Q.  Remind us of the backstory again?

A.  A little while ago, Fangraphs ran a little story saying that Morales, Konerko, and 3 other guys were baseball's most average players, hitting 2.0 WAR on the dot.

Dr. D responded to this by pointing out that WAR achieved from the actual batter's box are at a premium.  A few months later, having noticed that Morales can flat-out rake, USSM recommended a large, long extension for Morales at 3-WAR territory.

:: shrug ::

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Q.  What hitters are comparable?

A.  In the 70's they had a Billy Williams doll -- "wind it up and it hits line drives."  Morales has been a 100% legit 120-130 OPS+ bat, almost no defensive value.  But Kendrys enjoys "pitcher's pitches," savors the opportunity to bounce them off the oppo-field fence, and that's the point here.  

That is what the Mariner lineup needs:  players who make their money off of GOOD pitchers.

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Q.  What do you mean, "line drives?"  His Fangraphs "LD%" is not remarkable.

A.  We're talking about the time the ball is in the air.  Morales has a topspin swing; the ball gets to grass quickly, whether they grade it a fly ball or line drive.  (He's got the tennis groundstroke followthrough, the 1.4 grounder rate, and the nice HR rate.  He's a topspinner.)

He hits the top half of the ball.  The grounders have pace on them, are unpredictable in location.  The fly balls get between the outfielders with the "groundstroke" shape to their arcs.  It's just hard to get under the balls he swats.

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Morales projects to very "hard" .270-.280 in Safeco, 50 walks, 20 homers, 30 doubles, and lead the team in RBI.  Other players who might do the same as Mariners:

• Kyle Seager (if he were a DH)
• Ryan Zimmerman (DH)
• Bryce Harper (this year's version)
• Chase Utley DH (if he's not done)
• Justin Upton
• Angel Pagan
• Pablo Sandoval
• Adrian Gonzalez
• Aaron Hill

Also, this year's incarnation of Prince Fielder was doing about what Kendrys does, park-adjusted.

Which brings up the question of baserunning speed.  There's a legit thumb on the scale against Kendrys for that ... -2, -3 runs a year.   Edgar/Olerud rule:  Kendrys walks with two out, it's going to take four more offensive events to score him.

Get his 80 ribbies.  But score you only 60.  Kendrys is a "hitter."  He is not a "star."  He's a Scrub, but Dr. D's kind of Scrub, the kind he'll go to war with.

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Q.  Is SSI at all worried that such a line-drive machine will flop down the stretch?

A.  Every player up to and including Kyle Seager has a 10%, 20% chance of a huge funk starting this month.  I like Kendrys' floor.

BABVA,

Dr D