Brandon Maurer for Seth Smith
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Discussion thread :- )
Taro has been arguing for Seth Smith since before Dr. D was arguing for Felix Hernandez. G-Money wasn't far behind, as we recall.
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Ron Shandler sez -- Baseball Forecaster for sale here; you can download the .pdf right away --
- Mildly surprising: he hit in SD. Reversed skills decline, was able to hold down a defensive position.
- Not surprising: New manager kept him away from LHP, in line with most of his career.
- Even though 2H seemed rough, plate skills remained, and HctX and PX call for continued pop in 2015.
For those who just joined us, "Hard contact expectancy" is a super-refined metric that tells us how often he's able to hit the ball hard. "Power Index" is a metric that tells us how hard he's able to hit the ball often. :- )
These both popped back to about 120 last year, his career norms, after a slump year in 2013 ... that's what Ron's first line was talking about.
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Smith played 50% of San Diego's left field games and 25% of their right field games. The Padres were -6 runs in left and +14 runs in right. That's all Dewan has.
He snicked 2.6 WAR off the Fangraphs leaderboard last year, in a short season.
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He hit .270/.360/.450 against right hand pitching last year, with a 100 speed score and a wonderful 53:78 EYE.
Comparable players, once you compare Smith's platoon game to their overall games? Actually guys like Carlos Gomez, Starling Marte and Jose Altuve, without the wheels, of course.
For one year, he'll give the M's a kinda-sorta MELKY generic drug substitute in the 2 slot. OBP figures to be a good solid .350 in Safeco, hits the ball with authority, lacks the "specialness" of a Melky or Altuve, but will get it done in (ugh) Orc-like overachiever fashion.
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Brandon Maurer is one whale of a talent to give up, but you gotta give something to get something. You got 13 red socks and one blue sock, then one-red-for-one-blue is doable.
Cheers,
Dr D