September 2011
Posted by jemanji on 09/30/11
1 Comments
Jon Shields has various scouts' quotes on the M's top-100 pitching pheenoms, those being Paxton, Walker, and Campos (with Hultzen next).
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=== James Paxton, LHP ===
For those who just joined us, Baseball America is on the extreme right-side scouting end of the baseball-analysis spectrum. They are therefore not going to give as much weight to James Paxton's demonstrated 115/20 control, as a college pitcher at Kentucky, as they're going to give to the velocity of Taijuan Walker's fastball.
Dr. D aspires to the center of the spectrum, using both scouting and saber to figure out pitchers, and... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/30/11
15 Comments
=== Neyer / James ===
Hey, to settle this whole 2-pitch argument once and for all, what if we did this? ... what if we took a data-oriented approach, instead of an opinions and baloney approach?
What if we sat down and catalogued every pitcher in ML history, and their arsenals? And then we tabulated whether it was feasible to pitch with fewer than 3 pitches?
Oh, wait. Neyer and James did that.
And after looking at every pitcher, ancient and modern, they summarized their findings like this.
"A starting pitcher can win with:
Three decent pitches, or
Two very good pitches, or
One great... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/30/11
10 Comments
I/O: Boston gives up ....
(1) the Eastern League's Flying Mothra Conflagration, a/k/a Video Game Chiang, and .... (2) Trayvon Robinson* for ... ?
.... a tragedy of Bostonian proportions.
As with Michael Vick, the curse of the Bambino was banned only for the short run. I'd like a WtPAIN metric on Boston's disappointments. Wouldn't this one make the top five?
CRUNCH: Erikkk doesn't look likely to return to Boston, now does he? And he'd never play in New York.
Luckily for his arm, he misses the high-stress playoff performances, meaning that his arm has light mileage going into ST next... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/30/11
I think that's about right. Brian Burke's system has it at 0.41, and SSI will go along with that.
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=== Reasons the Seahawks Could Lose ===
Ahhhhhh ... :laughs:
Picking just a couple things out of the bag, Atlanta was 13-3 last year with a +126 points differential. More points differential than any team other than Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers or the Steelers.
Meanwhile, the 2010 Seahawks made the playoffs with a -97 points differential -- and they're far behind that -PtDif this year.
Every weapon bristling on the Atlanta offensive tank rates out at .50 caliber or more, and their points are... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/30/11
8 Comments
Go flip Lonnie some grief for enabling 60 minutes of my incoherent paranoia. MC link here has the embedded audio.
One topic of discussion: how the Mariners will configure this big flotilla of talent. Bill James, in his 1980's abstracts, used to talk about teams like the Mariners' ... okay, you've got a collection of new players; how do you turn this unruly heap into a ballclub?
One problem is this. Did you notice which two players finished the 0H 2012 the strongest? It was Kyle Seager and Alex Liddi. And by a long ways.
Seager had an EYE around 1.00 down the stretch -- while at the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/28/11
15 Comments
TAD sez,
Dr. D, could you explain the following?
If the spiral adds to Vargas’s power – velocity of his pitches. How does the quietness (lack on any visual spiral loading) of a Wells / Catricala not rob them of their power (as you had detailed in an earlier post). Link is a video of a Catricala homerun illustrating the point that it does not look to me that he is physically prepared to swing the bat with any force behind it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j4MnMyTSxwY&feature=related
Perhaps it does rob them of power or better phrased it will. Since both Wells and Catricala are... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/28/11
2 Comments
=== Oh Well Whatever Nevermind, Dept. ===
In Hawaii, Catricala played for a cheesy college. You know, cheesy compared to UNC or Arizona. He parachuted into the pro game in 2010, and hit very well (about 300/400/500) in full-season A in the Midwest League.
Lonnie, G-Money, and others said eyes slideways on this guy. Looks like he can really hit.
Catricala, at A+ High Desert, blazed out of the gate like Secretariat and Spec, G, and Co. really sat up.
.......
Go back and look up all the hyperlinks as of June 2011. The "insider" consensus was ... no, hang on, that isn't fair.
A "... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/28/11
14 Comments
=== Pepper ===
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Q. Does Catricala have questionable batspeed?
A. His throughspeed is answered by the distance on the home runs. He has the same batspeed as anybody else hitting the ball the same distance.
A. His launch speed is not Ackley-like, I agree. (Neither was Edgar's, or Buhner's.) Catricala's hands aren't especially sudden, no, but he gets effectively plus launch speed because he's so short to the ball.
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Q. Is Catricala's swing handsy, or isn't it?
A. I agree, mostly, with the scouts. He doesn't hinge his wrists that much.
But! Neither does a PGA golfer when taking a... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/27/11
5 Comments
Spec sez,
How about this guy [as a candidate for 1H 2012]. In Sept.
5 GS, 31.2 IP, 2.84 ERA, 1.14 WHIP
0.3 HR/9, 2.6 BB/9, 7.7 K/9
It's Jason Vargas with "the twist." I think he'll be cheaper than any FA, and if the the twist makes him a 7-K/9 lefty, then he's probably just as good.
Dr. D has been a fan of The Pitching Twist since this 1980's pitcher, who for 3-4 years was the only good pitcher the Seattle Mariners had. Later, this pitcher proved to us that you could not only pitch well with the twist, but could also function as THE best pitcher in baseball.
As a completely separate... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/25/11
18 Comments
Mickey Mantle's 565-foot homer ... the one that gave rise to the phrase, "Tape-Measure Home Run."
.....
109 not being historically unique, exactly, but being plenty 'nuff to put his velocity into the top 10% of all home runs. Not the top 10% of batted balls; the top 10% of those perfectly-struck balls that went for four bases.
More to the point, Carp is doing this repeatedly.
Mike Carp's solo shot, on Sunday, can be seen here. Note the compact, controlled followthrough. Since returning from AAA, 50% (!) of his homers have been tape-measure shots, 420 feet or more. Well, you didn't... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/25/11
11 Comments
...
=== Friendly Challenge Dept. ===
After 9 games of Jim Mora's first season as Seahawks' coach, we published Mora Torium. In this article, we plainly and flatly wrote Mora's obituary, with zero chance of parole. SSI tongue-in-cheekly challenges you to find an earlier op-ed in which Mora's chances were put at zero.
Dr. D doesn't keep up with NFL football that much these days, but he was steeped in NFL playbooks back in the days of Csonka, Kiick and Always On the Run. He may have to gum his NFL-roto owners these days, rather than bite them, but his childlike intuition still sees its... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/23/11
7 Comments
Also see: POTD Why Nick Franklin Must Bat Lefty. Exec sum: Franklin has a Griffey-, Ichiro-level swing from the left side ... and a worthless swing from the right side.
Lonnie of MC, reasonably so, doubts Nick Franklin's ability to see ML time in 2012:
...unlike G, I believe that Franklin will start 2012 back at Jackson with maybe a midseason promotion to AAA Tacoma.
The main reason that I say this is because although his AA stats are small, they still indicate that he is stuggling when he bats right-handed against lefites. The split is Grand Canyonesque (.226/.273/.419/.692 batting... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/23/11
8 Comments
Tacoma Rain sez,
So Doc, if Liddi is the next Presley... the question is who is the next Edgar from your list?
Meet Dustin Ackley. He's got the best chance of any player to come through the M's system since 1977, at least, to do what Edgar did. That is, to single-handedly gun the M's offensive engine, and to make all the moving parts around him better.
Edgar posted season after season in the index-150 to 160 range: even after Safeco he hit .300+ with 100 walks, 40 doubles and 25-35 homers.
If nothing goes wrong for Ackley, we can pencil in .300+, 80 BB's, 40 doubles/triples and 15-20... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/22/11
4 Comments
=== Google (TM) Full Disclosure, Dept. ===
Having watched Mr. Seager try the 6 spot a few times, I had graded him at PSA 2 -- that's the grade where my dog ate my baseball card, but here's part of one corner, I think.
We were biased against this concept, heavily so. But since I had two shiny-fresh wax pack games recorded on my TV, I sat down and deigned to grant him a re-boot. Eric Wedge mopped his brow in relief.
So, although an anti-Seager going in, the switch on the back of my skull was set to "No Preconceptions." Considering my Bruce Wayne-ian mind discipline, meant that Mr. Seager... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/22/11
Play 3. Medium-high popup behind third base.
Seager glides over, taking a great angle with the subtle curve in the banana out towards LF, allowing himself margin for error in case the ball drifts on him. He gets there early and takes the ball with Jeter-esque body language.
High pops are no issue for Seager, who has played 3B and 2B. Kyle Seager the SS can handle skyballs as well as any ML shortstop, no worries.
It's not a big issue either way, but it's a checkbox you can tick and move on. Popups will be outs, end of story.
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Play Zeroth. A brisk single up the middle -- no SS could... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/22/11
Play 1, Second Game. Again! The game leads off with Span serving a three-hopper off to Seager's right.
Again Seager runs around the ball to take it forehand. (This is slower but more sure.)
Seager this time takes two steps to set, not three. He unfortunately submarines the throw, using a 3B/2B flip, and the throw sails up the 1b line into the runner.
The throw is within Kennedy's reach, and Span is out.
...
Play 2. Span chops a two-hopper, almost a Baltimore chop, to Seager's right.
Seager blitzes in like Dr. D charging the buffet table, takes the ball with nice timing off the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/22/11
Play 6. A high pop behind shortstop.
Seager backpedals from wire-to-wire, almost cheekily, drifting left with ease and taking over the skyball with initiative.
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Play 7. Another very high popup on the infield, shallower. See previous. The body language is almost overconfident.
You wonder why we talk about dirt-dog mentality sometimes... the idea is that a ballplayer enjoys being in the middle of the action, enjoys baseball, let's play two. I hope they hit more balls to me next game. Y'know.
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=== With Grades Like These, At Least You Know He Ain't Cheating, Dept. ===
Here are the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/22/11
Q. Could Seager play 140 games in a season at SS?
A. He could, yes. If he ever got his catch-and-throw footwork down.
It's funny, but like Marco Scutaro, Josh Wilson, Jason Bartlett and Nick Punto, I like Kyle Seager better as a shortstop than as a 3B.
Lonnie had asked about core training, whether it could give him the explosiveness to step-and-dive like Liddi. My opinion is No, because Seager just doesn't see the ball off the bat like Liddi IMHO.
But at SS, this lack of suddenness doesn't cost him. Seager has time to read the ball at SS, and he can take advantage of his natural... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/22/11
5 Comments
Q. Would SSI endorse Seager at SS, along with Ackley at 2B?
A. Yeah, now you are talking about both middle infielders as bat-first players. How many teams do that?
You could look it up; I'm sure the Yankees had some bat-first second basemen beside Jeter and the Red Sox have probably had some bats at 2B...
Seager and Ackley are not gifted MI's, but they are super-reliable, super-intelligent players. As Bill James said, "In any sport, there is no overstating the importance of having intelligent players in the middle of the field."
PROVIDED that the Mariners had a high-K, high-FB... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/21/11
29 Comments
... I knocked off the Liddi "POTD" in a cursory fashion, having watched him for one game and having spent about 10 minutes thinking about him.
Liddi fanboyz were quick to declare unto me the Cheney word more perfectly, notably Lonnie and Malcontent. Lonnie assures me that the Wells-type scatter chart doth not apply, and Malcontent presses the differences with just as much gusto:
If you let go of Liddi's April and look at his season in progress, Liddi was much better than his overall season suggests, his post April OPS was .857 (compared to his overall .821), his strike out rate was 25.9%... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/21/11
13 Comments
... being as we're running the M's an' all. :- )
SSI waves the white flag on this one, and with gusto. Kelly sez,
I know you see a starter in Wilhelmsen, but there is value to leaving well enough alone :) .... Maybe he's figured something out that he can implement on the mound no matter what his role is, but maybe he is mentally/emotionally better suited to relief pitching.
A relief pitcher has to be able to deal with the stress and anxiety of high leverage situations, but a starter has to maintain a razor sharp focus for 2+ hours. That is hard. Ever try to sit through a 2+ hour... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/21/11
1 Comments
.. G-Money cosigns with Dr. Kelly on Tom Wilhelmsen:
I would love for him to start. I've always wanted that.
But if he wants to close, has his head around being a late inning reliever...I'd take the next JJ Putz and be grateful. ...
I still think Lueke is miscast as a multi-inning reliever, but we'll see where they go with him next year too. Hard to promote a guy who will give up 3 or 4 runs every few games to higher-leverage innings.
Tom seems like he's growing more into a late-inning beast with every appearance.
For a while Lueke was first in line, but then he took the mound. You'll... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/20/11
2 Comments
Q. What's the exec sum?
A. This one's easy. Think Casper Wells, with a third baseman's glove in his locker.
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Q. Wells has about a 60% shot at a substantial ML career. Does Liddi have that much chance?
A. He doesn't, not yet. But Liddi is farther along at age 23 than Wells was, that's for sure.
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Q. Liddi can stick at 3B?
A. We've seen some shtick in different places, questioning Liddi's glove. Hard to say what games they were watching.
Tonight he was pulled way in on the grass, and then there was a line drive by him down the line ... we slo-mo'ed it several times. Liddi... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/20/11
12 Comments
Q. Why do you say Casper Wells at the plate?
A. Only because everything's the same.
Similar size, similar body type, same natural power where if either man connects with a pitch (THWOCKKK) the ball travels a considerable distance over the fence.
Similar flat-arc'ing RH swing shapes. Similar desire to pull everything over the LF fence. Similar compact paths to the ball -- both men prefer to let their muscles, not their backswings, do the talking.
Similar K/BB ratios at the same age ....
Liddi has been running 50:150 ratios while maintaining a blue-chipper's age-arc (20 = A, 21 = AA, 22... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/20/11
5 Comments
Before Wilhelmsen came into the game on Tuesday, Mike Blowers announced that starting two games ago --- > Wilhemsen had found total confidence in his breaking ball.
Huh, I thought. Mike Blowers is not The Gospel According to Leo Durocher, but he is indeed (1) a baseball-savvy individual who (2) is currently in personal contact with Tom Wilhemsen. That beats me on two counts, so I sat up.
Wilhelmsen warmed up angrily and decisively, as always. But then he reared back and not only fired 96 mph, but did so with the body language of Rickson Gracie stomping across the ring to break a... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/15/11
25 Comments
Lonnie of MC finally taught me enough Skype to get a podcast together. :- )
We know that few are gullible enough to believe in the existence of Sasquatch, crop circles, or Dr. D, so here is a Mariner Central thread and a podcast link with clear evidence to the contrary. As to the crop circles, at least.
In the first 10 minutes, a Steve Delabar POTD lurks, albeit in audio form.
...
Lest you (sensibly) categorize the audio report as one more SSI overreaction ... we did hear on Geoff Baker's show, after-the-fact, that the Mariners are giddy over both Delabar and Wilhelmsen's "knockout... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/15/11
5 Comments
....
Once knew an aikido sensei who would set his students to drills, then watch from the sidelines to see if he could catch anybody with .... compressed lips.
Body language isn't a sham science, like astrology or palmistry. We human beings are hard-wired to express our emotions through our faces and through our gestures. We do it automatically, without thinking about it.
Take your autonomous response to lying, for example. If you think I'm lying, or about to say something really embarrassing ... well, that second part is nothing you'd blanch at, on SSI, but you know what I mean ... you... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/14/11
9 Comments
......
How about a quick-shtick on each lineup position? ... we'll go for the top half on Thursday. :- )
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Miguel Olivo hit a ball, about 10 feet foul down the LF line, that cleared the upper-deck facade like James Belushi hitting a tennis ball over the chain-link fence against Big Sak. It literally disappeared back into a tunnel.
As Jeff Sullivan pointed out, Olivo's out ratio is farrrrr above the legal limit and if a saber patrolman ever field-tests him, Miguel will not be driving his own car home.
Olivo is averaging 24 walks and 153 strikeouts (!!) per 162 games on his career. I'... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/14/11
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There's no apparent on-field rationale for giving Trayvon's and Casper's allowance to Wily Mo Pena. Especially since he's squandering the money on a 2:32 EYE ratio.
...
We conclude, therefore, that Wily Mo is in the M's dugout in a coaching capacity.
There's nothing wrong with this. Dr. D, in real life, has been consulted about work environments on about 5 or 6 occasions ... it is true that, if you can get 2-3 really positive examples into the mix, that they can almost by themselves install the new attitude.
Get you 15 workers, all used to grumbling and murmuring and complaining,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/14/11
.......
In 2010, L-Rod had maintained his career-long 433:337 minors batting EYE ... but had, improbably, added lots of power -- at absolutely no cost to his EYE.
400 at-bats said that he'd learned some things, and his minors coach Chris Chambliss thought as much.
He didn't get much of a chance in 2011 ... 100 at-bats in Safeco, and not many in Tacoma ... but the EYE remained at 13:15 in the big leagues and L-Rod gave the M's a lot of tough at-bats.
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One season on, what's the conclusion?
L-Rod doubled twice into the right-center gap on Wednesday, absolutely nailing the ball both... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/14/11
4 Comments
When the Mariners traded for Trayvon Robinson, SSI found one convincing player-comp in the major leagues for him, that being Curtis Granderson.
SSI's coefficient of confidence, on this one, was very high. The list of similarities, both saber and physical, is a mile long.
...
Watching the actual Curtis Granderson on Wednesday, and having watched Trayvon for 100+ at-bats, my confidence has gone UP.
Granderson lofted a high fly ball the other way, to left field, and for a second I thought I was watching Trayvon. :- ) Same low CG, same stick-your-face-in-there, same long look at the ball... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/14/11
5 Comments
=== April 1, 2011 to July 6, 2011 ===
Vargas pitched very well, notching a 3.49 ERA for the first two-thirds of the season.
Though Dr. D remained unconvinced, many (most?) SSI cave-dwellers believed that he was being stubborn. Comparisons to Jimmy Key, Jamie Moyer and similar finesse aces were finding their level.
Dr. D didn't particularly object. Vargas is a soft-tosser who stays around Ron Shandler's magic 5.6 strikeout line -- the line at which soft-tossers can be not only solid pitchers, but actually stars. Think Brad Radke.
Vargas has good finesse-pitcher stuff; he can paint with... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/14/11
17 Comments
Dr. D is, by the way, a huge fan of the Erikkk hip pivot. Thusly:
1. It improves velocity by engaging your back muscles. Some pitchers just turn in order to hide the ball, but Vargas is "loading" the back muscles and using them to generate velocity.
That's good. Anything that takes load off your arm is good.
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2. It hides the ball, making offspeed stuff tough to decipher. It seems to add "noise" to the pitcher's motion. A Michael Pineda comes right down the pipe at you, and any little difference like a head bob or shoulder tilt is easy to see, and can "telegraph" an offspeed pitch... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/13/11
7 Comments
......
MtGrizzly axed, reasonably, how you'd pitch Safeco to Prince Fielder.
Benihana lined the pitch back through the box at 102 mph:
My pitch would feature such things as:
1) Jack Z - the guy who drafted you, gave you a shot in the league, still has a major man crush on you, etc. And has the eye for talent that made your current team what it is - and in regards to the M's has them...
2) Loaded w/ potential - Felix, Pineda, Ackley, Smoak, Carp, Seager at the ML - in the minors arms like Hultzen, Paxton, Walker and Campos and bats like Franklin and Catricala, that just needs...
3) A... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/13/11
32 Comments
........
Mojo Esq., argues:
Morrow beat up on the Mariners earlier this year in one of those Morrowesque one time games of unsurpassed brilliance. He presumably did this for the Mariner's crimes of rushing him to the major leagues, and relying on him to play well, and drafting him over Tim Lincecum, and then trading him for a better player.
Is leading his team (the one with Jose Bautista) into the American league cellar with his 9-10 record.
Which co-counsel OBF cheerfully stipulates as true (though lawyers on the same team probably don't often get to stipulate each others' claims):
I... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/13/11
9 Comments
........
Re Brandon League, Mojo likes what he sees:
Contrast Brandon League:
Cooler tattoos,
Better control, League can paint the corners when he wants, and can throw his sinkerball for a strike.
Good stuff too, He hits 98 on the radar gun, has a good sinker ball, and has that fork thing as his offspeed pitch.
Has thrived in Seattle, with 3.42 and 2.82 ERAs while pitching high leverage innings for the lowest run scoring and most disappointing offenses in history.
Does not whine, Last year, he never whined, that we know of, during all those 1-1 and 0-0 tie games where he pitched his... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/12/11
17 Comments
Has it occurred, the similarities between Tom Wilhelmsen right now, and Brandon Morrow ... just before the Seattle Mariners traded him? All of these Morrow factoids are true of Wilhelmsen:
Morrow threw an easy 95-98
But with inconsistent location of his FB
The fastball was impressive enough in flight, but even MORE impressive as hitters swung
Morrow's breaking stuff was intriguing but totally unreliable
Morrow just finished a 63:44 CTL season in SEA, with 8.5 strikeouts; Wilhelmsen's at 25:13, with 8.2 strikeouts
velocities the same in the pen or in the rotation
Both had extreme starter's... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/11/11
22 Comments
...because if Matty checks in to the site, sees the Seahawk stuff but no Mariners shtick, he's going to be grumpy for three days ;- )
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....
=== Tom Wilhelmsen ===
Checked into the game on Sept. 10th and threw his first pitch at 98 mph.
He threw 10 fastballs, only one of which was less than 97 mph. (That one was 96 mph.) As we get later into the season, and later into Wilhelmsen's career, he throws faster and faster ... with less and less effort. He is now 97-99 with a batting-practice motion.
It is not a relief-pitcher thing. It is a blessed-by-nature thing.
You'll rarely find a... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/11/11
4 Comments
.....
=== Ichiro ===
Is closing in on 3,700 base hits between MLB and NPB, with NPB being the league that smokes MLB every time they play in the World Baseball Classic.
At this point, it's very similar to talking about a Negro League ballplayer who had 3,700 hits for the Monarchs and Yankees -- if the Monarchs were kicking the Yankee's keisters in the exhibitions back then.
Forgetting for a second what 3,700 hits does not mean, think for a second about what it does mean. Early next year, Ichiro will pass Hank Aaron be baseball's all time hits leader, except for Cobb and Rose.
Ichiro has... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/11/11
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=== Michael Pineda's Changeup ===
As the M's season went fszzzzlt, my primary goal for the ballclub was for Michael Pineda to finish with more K's than IP. :- )
He's doing it, as are two other AL pitchers, Justin Verlander and Brandon Morrow.
...
His strikeouts are over 9.0 in July, August, and September -- even as Pineda has eliminated his fly ball tendencies in the second half of 2011. Let me read that sentence again.
Pineda threw 1.5 and even 2.0 fly ball ratios in the 1st half, as he threw all those fastballs over hitters' bats for strikeouts and flyouts.
But Pineda has... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/11/11
2 Comments
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=== Charlie and the Loss Factory... er, the #28 Hitter Rule ===
The M's lost 3-1 to the Angels on Sept. 7th. We saw the furor over Eric Wedge saying that he didn't want to turn Maicer Izturis around at the plate -- didn't want Izturis batting LH (against Tom Wilhelmsen) in a game situation.
An uproar resulted when the fans, led by Baker, immediately realized that Izturis doesn't hit better lefty.
However, the basic problemo was that the manager can't come back into the clubhouse and say "I was ready to change, but I suddenly grokked that my Independent League Reject was going to... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/11/11
2 Comments
.......
We pos-i-tron the Mariners from the 3rd deck; from the Seahawks it's more like the 7th deck, if not from the space station. That's okay. Sometimes the experts are a little too close to the situation.
How about a naive take on the day's action?
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=== Context ===
Seahawks lose game one, which is a divisional road game. The operative word being "road." Also, we can write off game two in Pittsburgh.
These dubious NFC West teams seem to swap home-and-home games, and here's a division where .500 would probably keep you in the hunt.
At Qwest (yeah) the Seahawks probably would... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/11/11
8 Comments
.........
=== Quarterback ===
Dr. D was definitely not a Tarvaris Jackson skeptic going into the season. I've got nothing against the guy, and you had to figure: if anybody knows who a quarterback is, Pete Carroll does.
But point blank, Tarvaris Jackson doesn't look like he enjoys playing football.
I mean, I'm sure he does. But his best moments are all flag-football darts and outs ... he seems to have little taste for the ball downfield ... he is so calm, courageous, and inert in the pocket (normally very admirable) that he appears to not care whether he is sacked ... when he runs he... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/06/11
2 Comments
Kelly Gaffney writes,
The problem with WAR in my mind is it fails to accurately account for the scarcity of opportunities. While you can build a roster of 25 player with 1 WAR ability for basically $15 M, you only get to use 9 of the hitters at one time. You need to focus acquiring the best 15 players, not the best 25 (stars and scrubs).
At the micro level, Bill James' most important insight was appreciating that the second most important counting stat in baseball is outs (following runs). Players that make a lot of outs to generate runs were hideously overvalued in the 70's and 80's... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/06/11
9 Comments
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=== Tier III Thinking, Dept. ===
Related to Dr. K's idea, is the roto "tier" concept.
Suppose that you gave 10 historical HOF third basemen to the AL East and Central ... Schmidt to Tampa, Brett to the Indians, Boggs to the Orioles, etc.
That would raise the industry average at 3B, and therefore would raise "replacement level" which is about -20 runs below average.
But would it do the Mariners any good, if they don't have one of the ten HOF'ers, nor one of the ten good 3B's playing right now?
...
Let's say the league happens to be stocked at a position, at the moment --... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/06/11
3 Comments
.......
My favorite at-bat of Tuesday's ballgame, Dustin Ackley's against Rich Thompson in the 8th inning.
Ichiro had singled, swiped second and advanced to 3B on a throwing error. Ackley stepped in against slopballing Rich Thompson with a one-run lead.
...
Thompson started Ackley with an 89 fastball in precisely the location that Ackley does not prefer, two inches outside. Ackley can't hit that pitch with as much authority as he can most other pitches. Ackley let it go by, and the ump gave Thompson the call. 0-1.
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Then Ackley saw two offspeed pitches, well clear of the strike zone... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/06/11
2 Comments
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=== Well, Consider What Was at Stake For Him, Dept. ===
Pitching for the 58-and-82 Seattle Mariners, Felix Hernandez came out to the mound in the 7th inning with a slim 2-1 lead. The M's are done for the year, but the Angels are not. The Angels wanted this game approximately as much as they'd want Game One of a playoff series.
With a loooonnnnng 9 outs (and about one hour) to go, Felix tore into the Angels like a rottweiler finding a stranger in his living room at 4:00 a.m.....
***
Peter Bourjos up, Felix reared back and fired .... an 82 mph curve ball. A little high. 1-... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/06/11
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=== Hope Springs Eternal, Dept. ===
In Tacoma this summer, Michael Saunders had ripped up the PCL, again, posting a tremendous OBP of .441 in the second half. With his SLG of more than 50%, this floated his OPS dangerously close to 1.000.
Even better, the scouts proclaimed him an all-fields hitter, capable of blasting doubles home runs all over the park. Fixed now? Well, if so, the M's have even more of a CF traffic jam than we'd already feared... :- )
Saunders back up today to give an exhibition of his newfound skills. Dr. D flicked on the Pos-I-Tronic Mainframe and hoped... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/06/11
12 Comments
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=== The Bad, Dept. ===
So it ain't like Dr. D wouldn't give him credit for improvements that accrue to his account. Just so you know.
The problem is Michael Saunders' swing shape, and it is a fatal flaw.
...
Dustin Ackley singled to LF in the 3rd inning off a low-away 94 mph Ervin Santana fastball. In order to get the bat to the ball, Ackley changed his swing shape in the following ways:
He dipped his back knee to lower his weight
He bent over at the waist to bring his hands over the plate
He lowered his hands before he swung
He did not snap his wrists as hard
He finished with... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/03/11
30 Comments
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Rick, who thankfully left Caffeinated Confines to favor us with his baseball perspective, sez,
[Speaking of position switches] Carp sounds like a 60's throwback, but then, our era also saw Tommy Harper (as well as Pete Rose) move from 2nd to 3rd. Good hitters. Tommy transformed himself from a speedster (73 SBs with 95 walks as a 2nd baseman in '69) to a power hitter (31 HRs as a 3rd baseman in '70) with the move.
Now THERE'S a guy who knew how to play a role. Harper wasn't a good 2nd baseman, but you had to make room for Rich Rollins and Tommy Davis. But I sure don't suggest... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/02/11
1 Comments
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Good read from Geoff Baker on the need for power hitting in modern baseball.
There is no dout about the Corner Power historical trend in baseball. In my view, the Corner Power imperative is driven by these laws of baseball physics:
MAJOR LAW: You want good hitters at the corners.
MINOR LAW: If you don't have tough RBI men, your chest is going to collapse. Somewhere in that 162-game stretch.
MINOR LAW: If you don't have tough RBI men, you get pitched differently and your synergy is negative - your players have bad years together.
COROLLARY: Good hitters are power hitters. At... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/02/11
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=== #1 - Get GOOD Hitters ===
In the American League in 2011-12, "power hitting" is pretty much the same thing as "good hitting," or at least the same thing as "reliably good hitting." In the photo left, you can see Prince Fielder decking himself for this measly single against the Cubs.
Look. If you could get nine Wade Boggses and Rod Carews, fine. Get them, pay them $20M apiece at nine positions, and you'll score 7 runs per game.
But we're not talking Wade Boggs. We're talking Casey Kotchman, and Endy Chavez, and Kyle Seager. A guy who relies on singles, and a few walks, is... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/02/11
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=== #3 Timothy Gallwey Dept. ===
Sports psychology is all about --- > convincing yourself that you can win.
Put me in the back yard, playing 3-on-3 with the local junior high kids, and I've got no problem shooting 80%, 90%. The positive visualization is absolute and it is more than skin deep.
However, put me in a strange YMCA in Tacoma, playing against the brothers, and if I miss my first couple, I might shoot 3-for-21. Why is that? They're the same shots.
Fear of failure, self-doubt, embarrassment.
***
MLB players will tell you that the physical size of the players in... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/02/11
36 Comments
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=== #4 Don't Kid Yourself about Gloves ===
The stock of UZR is falling fast....
Hey. If you could get banjo hitters for LF - RF - 1B - 3B who you could depend on to hit real good, despite no power, that would be one thing.
You haven't been talking about paying $15M for Johnny Damon. You've been talking about spending $2M for Endy Chavez.
The argument isn't truly about power hitters. The argument is about saving a buck, by putting a glove-first player in the corner.
From 2006-2010, the avant garde believed they had found the new Moneyball. Get you those UZR players whose WAR... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/01/11
4 Comments
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"RBI" being a dirty word to saber-only folks, but to Eric Wedge, Carp's RBI are one manifestation of the fact that Mike Carp enjoys bare-knuckle fighting.
Angels up by one run late, bring in Downs precisely to face Mike Carp, and how many times did we see the May-June ballclub roll over and die right there?
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It was one of Bill James' earliest insights that, in 1978 --- > the RBI stat was overrated. And that "clutch hitting" was overstated.
However, it's also sad that non-athlete observers now try to argue that RBI are worthless.
Mike Carp is an RBI man, and since his... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 09/01/11
17 Comments
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Megadittos to G-Money's org overview, in this thread. /cosign G. It's a legitimately strange organizational situation.
... EVERYbody has got to give it up for Zduriencik's talent development, and for me the signature decision was to draft Dustin Ackley and to move him to the 2B position. That represents Zduriencik in so many ways.
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The Mariners usually contract some famous saberdweeb or other, to propose them a schematic for the next season's moves. Maybe they should retain your services, Gordon?
Personally, I never understood why a Mat Olkin would want to submit an "... Read More