I would argue that FIPs and most of the TTO pitcher systems are designed to be very good "in the center", but tend to break down severely as you run into outlier (low example) combinations.
Remember that the formulas for these stats are based on actual ERAs (over time) for a large population of pitchers, and because of that, they can successfully factor out defense.  And they work -- IN THE CENTER.
At the fringes, these stats almost never match ERAs ... either individually or as a group, (from my observations).
How many comps does Morrow really have?  How many 10-K SPs have there been in all of history?  How many walked 4.5 to 5 guys a game?  If your comps consist of Hideo Nomo and early career Nolan Ryan ... and not much else, what is that actually supposed to say?
But, ultimately, I think the real picture is that when your stats are SO extreme, you game results do not even out nicely.  Morrow doesn't actually throw 10 Ks and walk 5 games a game.  He fans 14 with 3 walks one game and walks 7 and fans 6 the next.  His ERA totals are high because his hits and walks "naturally" bunch up (mostly depending on his control on any given day).  And ERA is driven up (over FIPs) because run scoring events get bunched instead of spread out.  For somebody like ...Vargas, too much bunching is probably more luck.  For a guy like Morrow, it's a reality of the complete (erratic) package that he is.

I have just gotten to the point where I believe in the 400 footers more than I believe in the math :)
I don't think that the Math can account for mindset, and everything I have seen from day one (including listening to parts of his college career as an avid Beaver fan) has screamed "will give in", or for lack of a better word, pansy.  I think that Morrow has self esteem / self view issues as well, HE doesn't know who he is, HE doesn't know what he wants, so how can he have any conviction when he tries for something, or when he is throwing to Big Papi with the tying run on first?  This goes back to the whole, "I am the closer", "well now I am not", "they forced me!  I never wanted to, boo hoo, woe is me", "my diabetes made me do it!" episodes.
Yup he has 10+ ks 3+ walks and .9hrs and phenomenal talent and is the only one of his kind to fail (well at least not dominate), you say bad luck, bad defense and happenstance, it will reverse, I say thanks for the all star closer Blue Jays, enjoy the years and years of frustration and wondering why Morrow doesn't dominate ;)
Also with Morrow there is MUCH MORE than just statistics that were driving him out of town and driving my dislike of him, and as much as we would love to have baseball only be numbers and countable events, fact of the matter is that these are humans and I am a human an thus there will be feelings involved :)
Morrow had at least these 3 strikes against him, A.)  He wasn't Lincecum :) and while this is mostly Bavasi's misgiving, Morrow was the one that had to wear it. Every time I see Brandon all I can see (STILL) is Lincecum's Cy Young and world series ring!  B.)  Persona.  Maybe Brandon needed to get a PR coach or life coach, but seemingly every interview with him he was whining about something!  And I don't think it was just me, Brandon's attitude and persona just rubbed people the wrong way.  Not just the whining, but the bravado without the back up, and other things I no longer remember ;)  C.)  Under performance.  Number 5 pick in all the draft, drafted before Lincecum, drafted in the "Best Pitcher Draft in the last 30 years" (or whatever the rhetoric at the time was).  We expected dominance and we expected it immediately.  And we are STILL waiting for Morrow to achieve it!
And in the end I probably wouldn't have even posted in the original thread if it wasn't for you comment to Mojo:
Am sure you'd agree however - it's awfully embarrassing to have another org immediately deploy him to such great effect -

Like he has already achieved dominance like he immediately became an ace, all of which you acknowledge isn't really the case in the above article.  Bottom line is that Morrow has great, ELITE talent and has NEVER (not even in college) done anything with it!  I for one was glad to get the poor taste out of my mouth and get something good in return for it!

It worries me quite a bit that Fister is going to turn right into Roy Halladay.  Just like Halladay Fister has just continued year after year to get better and better and better, and now even his velocity is nearing what Roy has.  Fister is no longer a no k soft tosser.  He is legitemately in the 90s with his fast ball and still painting like Maddux.  If he turns in to a #1 ace like Roy and Greg then we will be crying in our milk for quite a while over that one!  If Doug turns into what I think he will turn into and at pre arb and arb salaries then it doesnt really matter what the boys brought back in trade do, none of them will EVER be worth it, even if the ALL hit their 99th percntiles!
I wonder how much Fister not being one of Jack's own (Bavasi drafted him,I guess that is at least one feather in Bill's cap), went into his distaste for Doug.  Remind me again why it was so important to trade a guy this good and with as many club controlled years left as Fister has???  Becuase the Fister trade is really starting to be a burr in my JackyZ for President saddle ;)

to anyone other than Dustin Ackley.  Just don't.  Z is going to build up depth and redundancy and then trade to shore up where he doesn't have it.
He got 4 of Detroit's top 15 prospects for guys that two years ago had no value to speak of.
Was there a chance Fister gets even better?  Sure.  Was there a chance his trade value collapses?  That, too.
I don't think Z is the type to fuss over might-have-beens.  He's probably busy calculating what he can get for Vargas or Seager or Delabar next deadline.
 

Yes, most 10K guys who "make" the majors are stellar.  But, there are quite a few who never reach the majors - and the #1 reason is control.
People see Morrow on a good day and think Nolan Ryan.  But, I think Nomo is a better comp.  Nomo had a couple of years where his control numbers were good enough that he earned CY consideration.  But, he couldn't maintain it. 
And, Ryan himself was historically a .500 pitcher.  It's easy to blame that on his offense.  But, though he did have some excellent ERA years, for his career, he ended up with a 112 ERA+.  That's effectively 300th on the all-time chart. 
But, I would say the "perception" that 10-K pitchers are (as a group) stars is actually flawed.  Looking at the 1000 IP K/9 top 10, we see:
Unit
Kerry Wood - (starred for about 2 years)
Pedro
Lincecum
Ryan -- (note the 280th on the all-time ERA+ chart)
Hoffman
Koufax
Oliver Perez - (really?  8th best ALL TIME?!?)
Sam McDowell
Johan Santana
 
Certainly there are some stars.  But, there are clearly some whiffs in there, too.  The next ten include: 
12) Scott Kazmir
14) Hideo Nomo
20) Eric Plunk
But, there are only 8 pitchers all time who averaged over 9K/9 for 1000 IPs.  One was a pure reliever (Hoffman), and one a failed starter (Wood).  One was just a failure (Oliver Perez). 
And while Unit is certainly one of the greats of all time ... his career up to age 29 was mediocre/erratic.  Same can be said of early career Koufax.  The "special" 10-K pitchers did not actually produce "special" results, until they developed control. 
Now, this means Morrow's fate is FAR from settled.  If he can maintain a 3-ish walk rate, he could indeed have a Koufax period in his career.  But, if he regresses back to a 4+ walk rate (like Nomo), then he'll likely end up just another exciting to watch .500 pitcher.

Yeah. That trade is a disaster unless we somehow get multiple allstars from that return. And Fister is a warrior mentally, too. Just incomprehensible.

I said, I guess I need to trust my talent evaluator who just gave up 4 years of Fister for his left-handed, less-reliable cousin, a 4th OF, a 3B prospect who is unlikely to pan out and a PTBNL.
I'm still trying to trust him.
- I like Furbush, I actually do.  But he's trying to learn the lessons now that Fister already mastered.  It's a setback.  Doesn't mean Furbush won't become an ultra-reliable, stone-hearted killer like Fister, but he's not there yet.
- I don't like Wells very much as anything other than a CF.  I don't think he's gonna get a look there, so hopefully he can surprise me on a corner.  As an older, RH version of Carp who walks only intermittently, though (he likes to get HBP) I don't like his chances.  Hoping I'm wrong and he can be a great RF in a year.
- F-Mart has a scary toolset for me, but it IS a skillset he used to hit .300 as a 20 year old in AA for us.  But talk about somebody who never walks...sheesh.  He's 6 months older than Nick Franklin, and still has time to mature his skillset.  
A word of caution:  There have been six 3B in the last 50 years who have walked less than 30 times, struck out a hundred+ and slugged .420.  That's his current skillset.  Add a few more BBs and that's an approximate Kevin Kouzmanoff/Vinnie Castilla skillset - still nothing to scream about since we don't play in Coors.
A word of hope:  His ISO has gone from .028 to .088 to .082 to .137 as he's climbed the ladder.  There's power in there somewhere.  His batting average has climbed a similar arc over the last 3 years.  The guy you WANT him to be with that skillset (and adding power as he fills out) is Tony Perez.  I still don't see it, but if Jack sees a shadow of that in there, then I hope to see it soon too.
- And Ruffin is a bullpen arm that I have a mild fondness for.  I think he'll get comfortable next spring and be a viable pen option, but he doesn't make me jump for joy yet.  Still, bullpen arms are good to have.
But so are TOR starters, and Fister still looks like a really good pitcher.  We got a grab bag with lots of interesting things inside, but I would still rather have Fister.  That said, Jack's job isn't to plan for one way to achieve victory, but for all ways to achieve it.  He needs to build in failure failsafes so that even if Wells doesn't work out, Trayvon does.  If Martinez doesn't he already drafted a couple other guys who might.  If 70% of blue-chip prospects fail, then you need 3-4 blue-chippers to be reasonably assured of nailing one of em.
I get the strategy.  It just hurts me to see it implemented in Fister's case, that's all.
~G

I was being maybe a touch hyperbolic, but my feeling is not that the trade is a disaster because of what we got (quantity over quality, interesting pieces) but for the opportunity cost of what we did obtain with that valuable chip.
Fister should have been way more valuable than Putz.  IMO we should have been able to get a sure thing for him (maybe a player like Zimmerman... established but getting expensive blocking a promising near ready player- like Rendon... or one of Cincy's catchers).  If the value wasn't there at the deadline, try in the offseason.
Finding a Fister out of thin air is really like a lottery ticket.  I hope we didn't waste it.

I'll admit that I was always a Fister skeptic.  But, comparing his trade value to Putz is IMO a really poor comp.
Fister at the time he was traded had still never exceeded 6 K/9. 
He's been a solid control pitcher helped by a stellar defense and a park that suppresses homers. 
His aggregate Seattle ERA was 3.81 with an aggregate ERA+ of 105. 
What he had accomplished in Seattle at the time of the trade was comparable to what RRS did in his first couple of years. 
Vargas is one year older, but putting up similar stats, (and despite the worse ERA, consistently winning more games ... go figure). 
The view of Fister that shoves his value way up is not based on what he HAS done.  It is based on what he "might" do.  That's why Putz and Fister comps are dubious.  Right or wrong, MLB managers put FAR more value on actual MLB performance.  And they include things in their calculations like wins. 
Putz was ... for a time ... one of the most dominant closers in all of baseball.  His upside was not a guess.  It was an absolutely known value.  The question with Putz when traded was "will he get it back?" not "will he improve?"
Heck, what Fister has done with Detroit so far he didn't even do in AAA. 
From my view, many Seattle fans significantly overvalued Fister based on their perception of what he 'might' become.  When the name Halladay comes up when waxing poetic, that (IMO) demonstrates how over the top the love affair is.  In reality, Washburn would easily be the most apt comparison. 
 

But whither the rotation you ask? Repeat after me: Felix, Pineda, Paxton, Hulzen, Walker and Campos.  

Campos just finished a few innings in short-season as a teen.  I don't expect him in the bigs for 3 years at the earliest. 
Walker mowed down low-A as a teen as well but that won't put him in the rotation next year either.  He's 2 years off, best-case. 
Hultzen hasn't thrown a pitch for us so his ETA is entirely undetermined, and Paxton...well, Paxton's a freak.  I do expect him in the rotation next season.  But the (6 man) rotation you're talking about is assuming the health and success of prospects with very limited innings on their arms, several of whom are not in next year's plans or probably the year after.
I think we'll be all right without Fister.  I do believe Plan A would have been to move Vargas, but once he tanked in the middle of the year and we wanted to capitalize on our pitching (especially with a return on Bedard being entirely up in the air due to injury) we pulled the trigger on the Fister deal.
And I think we got useful pieces back.  The question is whether they'll be as useful as 200 innings of a 128 ERA+, 4 WAR pitcher for several years, which is what Fister has been this year and looks like he could come close to going forward.
That's not quite a Cy Young candidate...but there are 20 guys in both leagues with an ERA+ that high that qualify for the ERA title and he's #18, right behind Matt Cain, who also gets to throw to pitchers during games.
Matt Cain, I might add, IS a multiple-time All-Star who has gotten Cy Young votes.
WAR? 21 pitchers have accumulated 4+, and Doug makes that list at #15, right ahead of 2-time Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum.
Doug's not likely to win that Cy Young...but this version of Doug, right now, is a VERY good pitcher.
Hopefully Furbush and Ruffin are too, and Martinez and Wells can carry some water for this offense either on the field or via trade.
~G

But for what his salary is for the next few years, he doesn't have to be.  He's not making Max Closer money like Putz was.  Heck, he's not even arb-eligible yet.
A couple of bucks to Putz and you still have plenty of money to fill out your lineup while getting a LOT of bang for your buck.
Wash had a couple of 4 WAR years too - I don't mind him as a comp for Fister in some ways. But if the Angels had traded Wash the year he got his 4 WAR and Cy Young votes, how much uproar would there have been in A-Town?
If you think Fister is over-valued by this community, okay, I can see that I guess. But he's undervalued by Ms fans as a whole.  Not by Detroit though - they gave up quite a bit for him.  Vargas would not have netted the same 4 prospects, I'll tell you that right now.
I don't know if it'll make up what Fister was (or if you prefer, could be), but at least we have a shot at it.
~G

I didn't say Fister was more dominant than Putz... I said he was more valuable. He has what... 5 years of club control? Durable, never injured (as Putz was). Demonstrating improvement, baseball Smartskins and guts. Cheap compared to Putz, and a good starter is more valuable than a reliever. So yeah, I think Fister is more valuable than Putz (partly because Putz was overvalued like most closers). Sure having a dominant closer is nice (if healthy) but honestly by war (not even war/$) I think Fister wins.

I don't fault Z for that.  Like you said, we needed more talent to plug holes, and a 4-for-1 is a decent way to start that.  It's not his fault that Vargas started sucking at the wrong time, or Bedard tweaked something and put his tradability in jeopardy.  We're not trading Pineda or Felix.
So Fister was the one pitching himself to the forefront of the trade market.  Talented guy, not your ace but certainly a contributor, cheap, would win a lot of games if he got run support at any time...
And we hauled 4 good prospects out of Detroit for him.  I don't think Beavan will be 80-90% of Fister, but I think Furbush could be (if he can stay healthy as a starter).  That leaves 3 prospects to make up the difference.  Problem is, I like concentrated WAR.  I think it's harder to get one 4 WAR pitcher than two 2 WAR pitchers, so I always want to get skyscraper WARs when I can and allow for 2 WAR surprises from the minors, FA or trades.   
For me, Martinez is the key.  I think Wells will stay as a 4th OF if nothing else - having a RH pinch-hitter for power in a lineup of lefties (which we seem to be amassing) isn't a bad thing, either.  Ruffin is a pen arm who could be great but will at least get a long look.  Furbush will try to start, with a fallback plan as a setup lefty that would be non-optimal but still useful.
Francisco Martinez, though, makes the deal great, or just a wash/slight loss.  Because we can get a pen arm or a 4th OF in another, lesser deal.  I can get a setup lefty by trading Vargas and keeping Fister, making the rotation stronger and cheaper in the process.  Or I can use one of my half-dozen outfield potentials for a 4th OF instead of needing to make a deal.
But a 3B with average and decent power?  That'd be nice.  It'd be nicer if he could walk his way on base, but that's not going to happen.  I'll be satisfied with average and power.  Next year I'm VERY interested to see him when he comes through town.
Furbush is showing he can start and have success.  He has some nasty stuff at times.  Wells will be on the 25 man, as will Ruffin.  So there's 3 men on the 25 for one gone.
But I think the true value of the deal is in the maturation of Francisco, and while I'm not bullish on him...Jack's got a GREAT eye for talent.  I wouldn't be surprised if F-Mart is our starting 3B in a year or two, which would make this 4-for-1 a very successful trade, even if Detroit is hoisting a trophy and spraying Fister with bubbly in the meantime. 
~G

This guy Wells was a real stud in AA - OPSing around .900 in nearly 700 PA as a 23-24 year old.  And his best hitting was as a 23 year old, OPSing .965 in 300+ PA's that season (interesting that Casper basically skipped High A ball).  And now, in 338 MLB PA's he's pulling a .788 lifetime OPS.
I think a real decent estimate is that Wells is a .800 OPS guy going forward.  Good OF glove, legitimate right handed power.  That's a nice return for Fister.  A year ago, we'd have traded Fister for Wells straight up.  But instead, we get a lot of interesting pieces to go with him.
Don't dismiss this kid simply because of a recent slump.  He has a history of production, at every level.  And I mean every level. 
Anyway, I see him as a middle-class Jay Buhner - somewhat better than a poor man's Jay Buhner with the potential to be a rich man's Jay Buhner, (which I assume is an actual Jay Buhner).  He probably strikes out a little too much to be an actual Jay Buhner, so drop his OPS down from the .840 you'd get from a young Jay to around .800.  I can live with that.
As a 26 year old major leaguer, Buhner K'd at a 24% rate.  Wells' MLB K rate is around 26.5 % at the same age.
Now...suppose Z is right and we did receive a decent Jay Buhner comparable.  If so, consider that Jay gave us OPS marks of .936, .909, 926, and .889 from ages 29-32.  I can really live with that, and Dougie is welcome to collect all the Cy Young awards he wishes to in the meantime.  I won't look back.
Let's look at the trade from this perspective.  We're afraid we gave up a Roy Halladay.  But  what's more like to happen?  Fister becomes Roy Halladay, or Wells becomes Jay Buhner? 

That's a good question. I agree with you that he'd value the Fister return higher... As well he should. Because Zman gave up more value on the Fister trade in Fister alone. However we can't forget that he also sent over Pauley, a perfectly serviceable fifth starter. That's potentially 2/5ths of a rotation. Now I will have to trust Z based on his track record.
I kind of wish Z had offered Fister, Pauley and ALSO Bedard also to Detroit to secure their best of the best spects. LOL, how bad would that have tweaked the Yanks!

Don't get me wrong... Jay in CF? That'd be a big win... Maybe more valuable than Justin Upton. Kind of a big dice roll for your biggest trade chip, but that's why Z gets the big bucks. And he does have the track record to back it up.

Minors:
Buhner: .293/.386/513, .63 eye,  9 HBP in 1686 ABs, most before age 23.
Wells: .252/.342/.494, .37 eye, 58 HBP in 1715 ABs, most at age 23+.
Wells has a FAR lower average, much worse eye, and an inflated OBP thanks to getting plunked a lot.
I don't consider him a good comp with Buhner.  If he can keep getting HBP, though, it'll help.  The guy he could be maybe is Carlos Quentin (with double the Ks).  That'd be nice - but Quentin in the minors exceeded Wells in most everything handily, including getting HBP.
But I'm telling you, it's really hard to have a batting average under .260, get a good chunk of your on-base value from getting rib-tattooed, and hit HRs without walking a lot.  His skillset doesn't bring up a lot of comps.
I'm trying to think of more.  
For corner success, the guy who comes most to mind is Josh Willingham.  He was a better minor leaguer than Wells but they have very similar skillsets.  Willingham is a good player - I'd be happy if Wells turned into him.  But if he's a poor-man's Willingham, can he play a corner?
That's why I want him in CF. Chris Young (.238/.316/.436/.753) does just fine there and is completely worth it with that line.  It's the line I wanted from Guti.  Wells wouldn't have Guti's D, but Guti doesn't have any O at all these days, so something's gotta give.  Wells DOES have a phenomenal arm and I think he can hack it in center.  And if he was Josh Willingham in center instead...well look out.
But if he's more Young-like, well...Chris is a legit middle-of-the-pack offensive CF. On a corner, IMO he's more like Jonny Gomes, who's the kind of guy you get when you want a placeholder for somebody good.  Of course, if Gomes had better D, which Wells has, he'd be a more worthwhile player, and I'd take a basically free one.
Wells IS gonna make the roster better.  But I think Jack was hoping for a Young/Willingham type, rather than a Buhner MOTO type.  So let's hope he found him - I would take either player-comp for Wells.  I just wish I saw more Willingham in him to have more faith in that corner position for him.
~G

It already is. Wells and Buhner are very comparable at ages 25-26. What Buhner did in his 27-29 years I'm very comfortable penciling Wells in for, adjusted for Safeco of course. We'll get good OF defense, right handed power, decent OBP, good arm, clubhouse leadership. Call that Buhner, call it Joe Slotbotnik. I call it a good return for Fister. What Fister gave the Tigers list night, Beavan could and did provide us. What Wells added, that's what's been lacking.
I don't expect Wells to take it to the next level that Buhner did. The K rate probably restricts his upside. But if he does...

Wells and Buhner are very comparable at ages 25-26. What Buhner did in his 27-29 years I'm very comfortable penciling Wells in for, adjusted for Safeco of course. 

I believe Wells can do what Buhner did in his age 27 season too, since it was his worst year between ages 24 and 32.  .240/.330/.420 is obviously achievable by Wells since he's hit that this year in half a season (.240/.320/.440).  But I don't know how much more than that Wells has, even though I love his "If I hit it, it's LEAVING the yard" power as a righty.  
I can't see his batting average rising much - he's never, ever hit for average with .269 being his high-water mark.  Now a .270-hitting Casper Wells would be really dangerous...but I don't see how he pulls that off, and he's already hitting for a ton of power so there's not a lot more to get there.  I'd love for him to be Jayson Werth or Josh Willingham.  If he is, brilliant.
But Buhner's age 28 and 29 seasons were .270/.380/.475 and .280/.395/.540 - even adjusted for the Safe those aren't lines I expect Casper to approach, let alone am comfortable expecting.
If Casper posts a .900+ OPS in 2 years, then Jack is even more of a genius than we thought he was.  I'd be thrilled with .800+.  
I hope you're right about him, though - it'd be spectacular to run him out there in RF post-Ichiro as a new dirt-cheap Buhner.  With Furbush (hopefully) a decent starter and Ruffin in the pen, at that point we do win the trade no matter Fister's prowess.
~G

Ok... This is the last time I will whine about this anymore. I just think that all the deadline deal players we got back are all huge dice rolls (especially concerning when you consider that with Bedard, Pauley, and Fister we traded two TOR starters and a number 5 starter). Maybe that was the best we could do... I'd think that was the case with Bedard. But Fister has a reasonable chance to out-WAR even Pineda (factoring in health concerns, getting deep into games etc), who was rumored to be able to get us someone like Justin Upton before he even threw a MLB pitch. No, I wouldn't trade Pineda for Fister, but you guys get the idea.

Mistake by me. Didn't mean to include any .900 OPS comparables for Wells. He's a high .700's to mid .800 guy. If that's closer to Willingham than Buhner, I'll take it.