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why did this comparison start? Franklin has broken records. He is younger, a switch hitter, plays a strong ss, and has a better average on his strong side. still confused about the comparison
POTD Vinnie Catricala - Sept 11 Updated Ranking (3)
=== Pepper ===
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Q. Does Catricala have questionable batspeed?
A. His throughspeed is answered by the distance on the home runs. He has the same batspeed as anybody else hitting the ball the same distance.
A. His launch speed is not Ackley-like, I agree. (Neither was Edgar's, or Buhner's.) Catricala's hands aren't especially sudden, no, but he gets effectively plus launch speed because he's so short to the ball.
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Q. Is Catricala's swing handsy, or isn't it?
A. I agree, mostly, with the scouts. He doesn't hinge his wrists that much.
But! Neither does a PGA golfer when taking a short backswing. That power comes from knees and leverage, not from wrists. Ask a PGA pro whether wrists are an absolute requirement for power.
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Q. So this is why the disconnect existed?
A. I think so, yes. People looked at Catricala's fairly moderate launch speed, and his lack of wrists, and the closed the book. Those things are important but are not absolutes.
They overlooked Catricala's other attributes -- his knees, his physical gifts, his compact swing, and his perceptive quickness.
If you wanted to gauge the next Catricala correctly, the light bulbs would be these: (1) Don't OVER-emphasize High Desert, or any other, park effects. (2) When a hitter, such as Casper Wells or Richie Sexson, can hit home runs with no backswing, don't blow that off. It's a huge advantage in the pitcher-hitter struggle.
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Q. Can Catricala play 3B?
A. He's under the impression he's going to play LF, RF, and a little 3B and 1B. His Jackson stats were terrific at 3B, both range-wise and error-wise.
Here, SSI will be glad to defer to the scouts. If they say he can't play 3B full time, I'll take their word for it.
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Q. How much power does he have, really?
A. His AA Jackson stats pro-rate to 80 doubles* and 28 homers per 155 games. Let me read that sentence again.
He slugged .600 over the course of 600 PA's between A+ and AA. His SLG went from .574 at High Desert up to .632 when they promoted him to the high minors, Jackson.
In almost 300 PA's at Jackson, he pro-rated to 108 XBH per season. Lou Gehrig got 90 XBH per year; Babe Ruth got 85; Ted Williams got 80. Here, let's chart that:
- 108 - Catricala's XBH rate, AA Jackson
- 90 - Gehrig's rate
- 85 - Ruth's
- 80 - Teddy Ballgame's
In other words, Vinnie Catricala parachuted into AA baseball, facing midseason pitchers blind, and was a man among boys.
*(Doubles + triples.)
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Q. How about the age-arc?
A. In my judgment, it's a big mistake to penalize him whatsoever, compared to any hitter, because of his age.
You can use age-arc when somebody finds his level, when he has an average year against competition as good as he is. Catricala has torn through paper bags. How does age-arc give you any sense of his limitations?
He cleaned up in his rookie pro year, and now in his second pro year, AA pitchers couldn't even provide him sensible competition. Age-arc can't be applied yet.
Q. Where does Catricala rank?
A. In exactly three months, he's gone from No Prospect What So Ever to --- > M's best hitting prospect, better than Nick Franklin, and --- > will certainly hit well in the major leagues.
Everybody now says Can't Miss.
Funny thing. I wouldn't go that far; my question is whether he has time for those knees against ML pitchers. I think that Vinnie Catricala has about the same chance as Casper Wells, maybe a bit less -- call it 40% chance of hitting well in the bigs.
I don't think he's a super-dee-do blue chipper, but he's where Shin-Soo Choo was at about the same point in Choo's arc. He's in just about any org's top 10.
100+ XBH pace in AA baseball - facing brand-new pitchers he's never seen - moves him to the head of the line.
He merits a ranking in baseball's top 100 prospects, because there are few guys who could have done what Catricala did in AA, and few guys who can use such a short swing to hit the ball so hard.
Catricala should rank about wherever Nick Franklin does -- Nick will probably be in the top 50 again -- Franklin has the physical gifts, but Catricala has the stats accounts closed. Of the two of them, Catricala is the one who has detonated the high minors. Objectively speaking, performance counts more than talent.
But of course, Catricala won't be given full credit for the 108-XBH pace in AA. Labels die hard.
For us? It will be fun, finding out who Vinnie Catricala is.
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BABVA,
Dr D
Comments
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And I agree with this:
I wouldn't go that far; my question is whether he has time for those knees against ML pitchers. I think that Vinnie Catricala has about the same chance as Casper Wells, maybe a bit less -- call it 40% chance of hitting well in the bigs.
Catricala is a blue-chipper, not a can't-miss-er. I think he's gonna be moved to the OF, a la Braun (oh, if only he hit like Braun...), and I like his chances better than Wells at a corner. He's 3 months behind Casper (who was promoted to the bigs half-way through last year) and 4 YEARS younger than him. Whoever is comparing Catricala age-vs-level and coming up short is a numbnuts.
Catricala is the same age in AA that Dustin Ackley was - which makes his college numbers look better. He entered college as a 17 year old, not 19 like some of these kids who are held back to make their high-school numbers look better against younger kids. He started slow being younger, then got much better as he matured. He's still growing into his game, and I'm fascinated to see what it looks like when he finally peaks.
Vinnie gets dogged for his BABIP being extremely high. As ghost said earlier in the year, "Take a hundred points off his average and OBP and he doesn't thrill me."
I've never figured out why that would be a linear equation. Mike Carp had a .361 BABIP in Tacoma this year, but it didn't fall to .270 in the bigs - more like .340. Why? Because he was smacking the tar outta the ball. It won't stay THAT high, but if he hits like this, it'll stay high.
My question about Vinnie is whether he can keep his LD% high like he did in AA this year, after being below average in LD's in previous years. IIRC, line drive percentage is usually around 19-20%. Vinnie was at 16% in High Desert, and in the MWL.
LD% is not the be-all, end-all, but it helps keep the BABIP high and more contact goes for hits that way.
In the MWL, Vinnie would sky a few mis-hit balls. That was not happening to him in Jackson. He, too, was smacking the tar outta the ball.
I liked him in the Midwest League. I liked him this year. I don't see any reason I'll stop liking him any time soon. He can absolutely fail - like you said, maybe the knees don't work, maybe they can bust him inside better in the pros, maybe Safeco kills him and neuters the effectiveness of his fly balls.
Maybe he's a tweener who can't manage in the OF but can't hang at an infield corner either. Pedro Grifol doesn't seem worried.
Vinnie Catricala for example: he came to us as a third baseman but now he has seen a lot of time at first base and left field. Do we think he is a third baseman, first baseman or a left fielder? We're not sure...
He hit .300+ in Pulaski, hit .300+ in A-Ball, hit .300+ this year. That's the great thing is that there are players that aren't expected to do much and then, boom, they're right there for us. He can be a left fielder for us or he can be a first baseman or he can be a third baseman, we're just creating some versatility for Jack and Eric, but he's got a bat.
Translation: "No matter where we wind up plugging him in on the field, the kid looks like a hitter, so we're preparing him for whatever fielding position will allow us to get his bat in the lineup."
That'll work for me too. Next year will be interesting, as we'll have taken a lot of talent out of the minors for use at the big league level. Vinnie's now a system headliner, and we'll see how he deals with that instead of with being an underdog. Keep it up kid - in a system that should have a few more serious arms than bats next year, you'll have a big spotlight all to yourself in which to shine.
~G
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I've been following this kid since Hawaii and it's been a shame to see the critics rip him apart saying he's "reached his potential." How can you say that when he just keeps increasing his stats season after season?
They put all their faith behind Franklin because of the sign on bonuses... compare numbers and stats not dollar signs.
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You were on the kid before SSI was even innerested... a nice line on the clipboard resume, my man...
If things fall right for Catricala, who is your ML prototype for him G?
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Check the "story" sequences, top right, for a 9-post breakdown of his magical swing.
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The comp isn't going to run for very long. :- ) But IMHO, Catricala comps very well to Franklin right now, and Franklin's a slam-dunk top 100 prospect.
Catricala's liable to be shafted in the offseason rankings, and SSI is taking a stand on it.
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As mentioned in the article, Franklin has physical gifts that few others have, but Catricala is the one who has laughed high-minors pitching off the stage...
The performance-vs-tools debate is one that's going to provide us a lot of energy, for a long time...
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We'd be delighted to review Lisa... a real pleasure getting your take ...
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Just from the other side of the plate. Soft knees, not at lot of load or leg movement, an almost lazy launch and sway that uses rotation of the body to lift the ball. I don't see that ridiculous level of HRs that Shawn got in his prime, but "normal" Shawn Green is what Vinnie looks like to me. Same sort of eye, same long-legged body. Green had more movement to what he does IIRC, lower body too, but he's also a lefty - for some reason all lefties, hitters and pitchers, seem to have extra rotation/sway over righties.
It ain't exact, but that's my thumbnail sketch that I've had in mind for a year and change now. Alex Rios has the same sort of no-step, open-the-hips and torque the shoulders approach, but he crouches and does interesting things with his hand load. Another same mold of hitter though. Both of those guys would make me really leery of investing a lot of cash in Vinnie as he got closer to FA... ;) But we can talk about that once he's a 115, 120 OPS+ hitter in the bigs, right? *laughs*
~G
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...to show any interest or to even promote Catricala as a top-level prospect last off-season. I got poo-pooed at several websites for having the audacity of thinking of him as a player of interest. Now, I find it hard to not return to those said websites and stick my tongue out and say "I told you so!".
Last February I posted an article on Catricala at MarinerCentral looking at The Cat's early professional returns. Some of you may find it interesting...
Linkedy-doo-dah!
This off-season my seemingly obscure player of interest is CF Mike McGee who just completed his first pro season with Clinton. You read it here first, folks!
Lonnie
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Werth has Vinnie by a good 3 inches, but both look their hitting a 90 yard knock-down approach when they swing. They also share handedness, OPS, the .5 EYE and the bat-first corner OF profile.
Three large RH power hitters to look at next year in Liddi, Wells, and Catricala. Would love for the first two to make Catricala more a trade piece than a future conderstone.
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still confused....you think franklin gets consideration over catricala because of bonus?
if that's the case, then what about ackley in AA when he batted .240 and got promoted - just because of his bonus?
again, franklin broke records last year and has a tougher job at 20. this year .300 on the left side in high A and .385 in AA...hmmm.
cat can hit - but he can't switch hit and he can't play ss. compare him against who will be fighting against for a job.
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Check out some fun stats from the ACC in 2009 if you haven't already.
Couple of younger dudes named Miller and McGee were keeping pace with hotshot juniors named Ackley and Seager.
Yeah, Miller had more walks than Ackley and McGee had a higher SLG. This when Ack was clearly the best college hitter in the country.
McNamara and his crew were obviously drinking it all in. Someday we'll have an all-ACC lineup.
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Engle and his crew are doing just as well. Who did Bob Engle personally select to come to the states after a visit to Venezuela?
The guy who got 113 hits, 30 doubles and 42 walks in just 82 games. As many XBH as slugger Johermyn Chavez got in 126 games. A .464 SLG for a 5-10, 170-lb. middle infielder (yes, it's all from doubles).
Looks like he's got at least Seager-level hit and eye skills. Let's get him on the Mike Carp core-strength routine and see what happens.
He's my nominee for seemingly obscure player to emerge: Felipe Burin.
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Yep, as we M's fans adjust to the minor-league vertigo we're going to discover a few new ideas...
Such as, a guy's place in line matters a whale of a lot ... if Liddi rips it up in ST and bangs 24 homers in 2012, he's a starter (for somebody) end of discussion...
To put it another way, M's minor leaguers are now going to need to find places to play where Mike Carp is not currently hanging out...
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I've been on the McGee bandwagon since the day we drafted him! This kid is a baseball rat along the lines of.. well, heck, there are too many baseball rats currently in the Mariners system to name them all, but he's one of them!
Lonnie