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Hisashi Iwakuma Goes Dangerous, 4

M's fans swoop in for some heavy WBC action?

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Dr's Prognosis

The Rays aren't the 2001 Ichiro-Edgar-Boone Mariners, nor even the 2012 Texas Rangers.  Nah, LrKrBoi29, we're not saying that one quality start against the Rays puts Iwakuma back into the $100M powerbroker game.

It ain't even that Mr. WBC-san ran a 6ip 6h 2r 2er 1bb 7k line.  It's about the fact that he demonstrated the ability to miss bats.  Let's chart his pitches as thrown Friday night:

Fastball 90-93 sustained 100% ... much more "hop" ... good command
Shuuto up Foul ball or three-bouncer virtually guaranteed.  +3.5 run value per 100 pitches
Shuuto down Legit MLB strikeout weapon ... excellent deception on it
Slider Still a bit mushy, but as a 3rd pitch, located, does add to timing problems
Change curve Fourth pitch, occasional, to "steal" a called strike

With Jesus Montero calling the pitches, this version of Iwakuma-san consistently changed the hitters' eye levels.  He went up with the fastball, and he took the shuuto down below the knees.  He pitched to miss bats, not to hit them, and as a result his command of 4-5 pitches was effective.

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Rotation 2013-14

Let's recall that Iwakuma isn't in midseason form yet.  He's been in the deep freeze, and is just now regaining some command and the "hop" on his fastball.  It rose 8.3 inches on Friday, compared to 6 against the Rangers, and even that 6 had edited out a bunch of "sinkers" that the Friday data did not.

Hisashi Iwakuma Scouting Report, 7.15.12 - Hitters' Reactions

We had that 14-8, 3.44 season almost within our grasp

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=== July 15:  the Rangers in the Batter's Box ===

If Iwakuma were a good pitcher, and the Mariners buried him on March 15 or 20 anyway, that would be one whale of a feebleminded player evaluation.  Jack Zduriencik not known for feebleminded player evaluations.  So we sat down for Iwakuma's start with an open mind.  Let's see what there is to this idea that batters are fighting to get to the plate and detonate Mr. WBC-san, shall we.

Roll the DVD.  

::blinks::

Sure enough.  The Rangers are right. on. top. of the plate.  They are taking hacks so hard that Ron Washington's got to be fearing jammed necks.  

As close to the plate as they are, Iwakuma can't nibble and pick the outside corner; that's where he'll get barrelled up, where the Rangers are standing.  I didn't see a single half-position in the first two innings - hey, forget that, I didn't see a single swing that wasn't off the back leg.  

And the timing was comfortable.  First pitch of the 4th, was it? Ian Kinsler stood on the plate, and Iwakuma threw an 81 slider right on the black, perfect location.  Kinsler checked himself off the fastball, read the slider, and gleefully swatted the pitch into the LF bleachers.  I'd say it looked like a slo-pitch home run, but that would sell Kinsler short.  Kinsler knew the ball was a home run before he started his swing.  You think I'm exaggerating?

Without a doubt, the first two, maybe three innings, plus Kinsler's AB, the Rangers looked exactly the way that Baker had described the problem.  Absolutely no respect for the fastball, so Iwakuma predictably nibbled-and-picked and grovelled his way through a five-and-dive.

Bear with me now, NPB fans...

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=== R-E-S-P-E-C-T, Dept. ===

The Canary in the Safeco Coal Mine

=== That '70's Show, Dept. ===

Almost the first thing Bill James ever did, was to underline road splits for players and teams.  He wanted to look past illusions and see the reality of underlying ability, and he did this by lining up road performances for his readers.  We remember his doing this with Joe DiMaggio and Ted Williams ... one slugged .610 on the road for his career, and the other .615.   Bill wrote, "Joe was a great player.  But it is fair to say that, in most other times and most other places, he would have been an even greater player.

I got your road splits right here, b'wana.  In 1981, Bill James would have loved to have published this road split:

ROAD BATTING Seattle 2012

Texas 2012

HR's 51 43
Games 43

38

HR per 162 road games 202

183

AVG .259 .279
OBP .310 .342
SLG .420 .437
Runs 211 191

Bill would have certainly have concluded that the 2012 Mariners and 2012 Rangers had roughly equal ability offensively.  He would have published a lead article about Safeco Field, and he would have chastised anybody who failed to see past the Mariners' context and failed to realize that the Mariners were a quality hitting team in 2012.

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=== Are We Having Fun Yet?, Dept. ===

Dr. D might not have ever actually worked in a coal mine, but he did once see Coal Miner's Daughter on TV.  And he slept at a Holiday Inn Express last week, so permit him to educate you in coal labor.

A short time back, say, a hundred years ago, Loretta Lynn's daddy would swaller coal dust by the bucketload but he knew he wouldn't die of asphyxiation.  They would compassionately bring a caged canary down with them into the mine.  The canary was more sensitive to toxic gas, such as carbon monoxide.  When the canary fell off its perch, well, there you go.  The toxin levels were rising and it was time to get out of the mine.

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John Jaso made a remark today that had, for Dr. D, a rather canarylike feel to it.  Geoff Baker asked John Jaso about the dreary games at Safeco Field:

Mariners catcher John Jaso had some interesting insights. Jaso had his team's only scoring on the day with a solo home run off Parker in the second inning.

I asked Jaso why the Mariners turn into a different offensive team at home than on the road. He politely told me I should check out what the A's did offensively -- the point being that teams don't exactly light it up at Safeco Field.

"It's hard because no team that plays here really has the production that they would somewhere else,'' Jaso said. "You look at Texas and how many runs are put up on both sides when we go play at Texas.

"I mean, they are different places. But this still is a great place to play,'' he added. "And the challenge is doing the best with it, knowing things like, if you hit that fly ball, it's not going to go out. 

"So, you concentrate on hitting low line drives, hitting grounders and that's what will beat the other teams that are coming in thinking the fly balls are going to go out. So, it's kind of a mental swing, kind of a different approach.''

The Mariners have been saying things like this all year.  And they've been doing things like this, like throwing their helmets on the field after they get a fly ball caught.  We knew that they were frustrated with Safeco.

This is the first time, that I've noticed, that they've said that they've GIVEN UP ON their normal hitting games, what little games those might be, when they're home at Safeco.

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=== Excuses, Caveats, and Quid Pro Quo's Dept. ===

Somebody else says, Bah humbug.  Don't give me any excuses.  Don't worry about the horse, just get the hay in the wagon (John Madden).

Athleticism

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In his latest article at Bill James Online, co-author John Dewan discusses the best baserunning teams in the majors:

 

The Atlanta Braves are in the thick of the National League playoff race and can thank good baserunning for part of that. The Braves rank first in the 2012 Baserunning Net Gain statistic featured annually in the Bill James Handbook. Baserunning Net Gain evaluates each player's opportunities to advance on hits and avoid outs on the basepaths, crediting him for the bases advanced better than average and penalizing him triple for baserunning outs. Led by outfielders Michael Bourn and Martin Prado, the Braves have a team Net Gain of +54, comfortably above the second-best Oakland Athletics.

 

Top Baserunning Teams, 2012
Team Net Gain
Braves +54
Athletics +46
Giants +30
Mariners +28
Phillies +26
 

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In terms of baserunning - not stolen bases - the 2012 Seattle Mariners are motoring around the bases at drag-race speed.  Man on first, long single between the outfielders, the local nine are more likely than just about anybody to spin around for a 1st-and-3rd.  Considering that my man Jesus Montero cannot reach second base on a double, I'd say the other dozen guys must be into time warps.

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The 2012 Mariners have been famously good at fielding batted balls.  As measured by UZR/150, they rank 4th of 30 major league teams.  Wow:  a team built on speed and defense, eh?

An Old, Ollllllllddd Argument

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To a certain extent this is exactly the kind of issue that Bill James, in 1975, developed sabermetrics for.  

Back then, a 21-year-old Jim Thome would come to camp and be obviously a much better hitter than the 32-year-old Brook Jacoby in front of him.  And Mike Hargrove would tell Bill*, you don't get it.  Brook Jacoby has a knack for the tough RBI.  Jacoby knows when to get those base hits.  Sure, maybe Thome is slugging .550 and Jacoby only .350.  But Jacoby knows how to break up the double play, knows how to move a runner over, just does the things you don't see in the box score.  Plus I play cards with Brook.

James said, I prefer the things that do show up in the box score.  And off we went into a new, more accurate understanding of what creates runs and wins.

Do you feel me here?  In a very fundamental sense, sabermetrics was invented for the purpose of turning the game over to the Jesus Monteros of the world.  The idea is to minimize the cost of feeding the invisible elephants if you can't find their tracks in the snow.

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The Mariners are 12-21 with Olivo starting (.367) and 11-15 with Montero starting (.423) at catcher.  

Changing Safeco?

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Chris sez,

I was messing around a bit on the Safeco scatter plot for this year, and overlaying some of the other parks. It doesn't seem, at first blush, as if just the distance is the problem. Obviously, air quality plays into it as well. For instance, if you look at this year's scatter chart, and overlay Rangers Ballpark, roughly one quarter of the home runs in Safeco this year would be long outs in Texas. I believe maybe the humidity has something to do with it?

What I was looking for was a scatter plot of home runs, as well as warning track flyouts, in various parks, just to see if there was any way to justify moving the center field fence in ten feet. Obviously, there are so many other factors to consider, that just looking at a scatter plot would not do any justice to the idea. If it is the air in Seattle that is killing the ball, then maybe the move MAY make sense. BUT, then we may be doing damage to our pitchers in the long run. I'm not sure where the happy medium is, to be honest.

Cool air blows in from LF to RF.  It comes off the ocean.  The result seems to be a "pillow" effect in which balls to LF and CF get air under them like in ping-pong ball lotto machines.  As the batters have mentioned, when the roof is closed this pillow effect is much reduced.

I'm not sure what the happy medium is, either.  If you move the fences in, you've still got this weird effect in which any ball hit in the air haaaaangs and then parachutes down softly into fielders' gloves.  Mike Cameron commented on this way back in 2001, and it's one reason that CF's stats look so good in Safeco...

Michael Saunders has the #3 UZR/150 among all of baseball's qualified center fielders right now.  Does anybody remember when he was a "tweener" and his use in CF was controversial? 

When Ichiro played CF in 2007, he was #4 among baseball's CF's in UZR/150.

When Jeremy Reed played CF in 2005, he was #3 among baseball's CF's in UZR/150.  You telling me that Jeremy Reed was +14 runs per year over other major league CENTER fielders?

When Randy Winn (!) played CF in 2004, he had a +7.4 UZR/150, right ahead of ... Mike Cameron, who scored +7.3 in Shea Stadium.

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This is part of what, in Safeco, makes very good center fielders ::coughgutierrezcough:: appear to be great center fielders.  

Millwon't?

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I've spent my entire career on horseback or on a motorcycle. It boxes you in, the way people perceive you - Sam Elliott

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Q:  This is a fluke couple of months for Millwood.  There's maybe a 2% chance he'll pitch well all year.  Millwon't.

A.  Great quip on the Millwon't :- )

As to the Level 201 Scan here ... Kevin Millwood is entitled to put 2009 and 2005 on his resume.  In those seasons, he established levels at which he's capable of performing.

The 3.67 ERA in 2009 was over 198 innings.  Ranking #8 in the AL in ERA, pitching in that ballpark in Texas, is extremely impressive.  In 2005 he actually led the AL in ERA, #1 in the league, in a Cleveland ballpark that is hardly Safeco.  

For his career, his HR rate ain't 0.4 of course, but it is better than average.  True, he was throwing the ball for slop in 2009 and 2010.  But his velo was down in those years, the pitches were obviously mushy and the gopheritis in those years is not indicative of his career trends.

So if you're asking Dr. D, and you did when you clicked the bookmark :- ) I wouldn't call the chance 2%, not unless a 2% chance is likely to come up 2 of the last 6 iterations.   If a guy hit 30 homers twice recently, I wouldn't peg his chances for 30 dings this year at 2%.

Swagger.

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=== Und Take Zis Mit You, Dept. ===

... after Seager's GWRBI in the top of the 6th, the Angels rolled their eyes at the cute li'l M's and prepared their answer.  Leadoff man, base hit.  Second man, base hit.  M's up one, true, but there's the tying run and there's the lead run, brother.  Let's get this over with and then you guys can fly out and console yourself with your one win in the series.

Except Eric Wedge brought in Steven Hyde, er, Jekyll, er, Pryor ... it's late here.  Howie Kendrick topped a ball to Justin Smoak who started a gorgeous 6-3-..... PRYOR'S THERE!  BEE YOO TEE FUL!  And the M's ran laughing off the field, pumping their fists, high fiving... reminded me of a few of these recent upstart U.S. soccer teams, Brek Shea diving a header for a goal and getting up pumping his fist and screaming in the faces of his world-superstar enemies.

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=== Follow On ===

Michael Saunders, on the postgame, made a remark that would have slipped by you if you'd blinked.  "Guys are walking around the clubhouse smiling" and ... now they are starting to believe.

M's 0 ...

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=== Still With Fangs Down To Their Chins ===

 .... though Danny Haren doesn't strike you as all that goth, probably.  I dunno, is the werewolf look included in the fad or is it just vampires and, um, zombies?

Bill James' 'Pitcher Rankings' paradigm basically treats the last 2-3 seasons as one continuous season, underlining pitchers who have demonstrated their excellence.  My favorite use of the 'World's #1 Pitcher' tool right now, is the large, overarc'ing insights into which teams may be playing over their heads.  And which teams may be ripe for a surge in the standings.  

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