Athleticism

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In his latest article at Bill James Online, co-author John Dewan discusses the best baserunning teams in the majors:

 

The Atlanta Braves are in the thick of the National League playoff race and can thank good baserunning for part of that. The Braves rank first in the 2012 Baserunning Net Gain statistic featured annually in the Bill James Handbook. Baserunning Net Gain evaluates each player's opportunities to advance on hits and avoid outs on the basepaths, crediting him for the bases advanced better than average and penalizing him triple for baserunning outs. Led by outfielders Michael Bourn and Martin Prado, the Braves have a team Net Gain of +54, comfortably above the second-best Oakland Athletics.

 

Top Baserunning Teams, 2012
Team Net Gain
Braves +54
Athletics +46
Giants +30
Mariners +28
Phillies +26
 

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In terms of baserunning - not stolen bases - the 2012 Seattle Mariners are motoring around the bases at drag-race speed.  Man on first, long single between the outfielders, the local nine are more likely than just about anybody to spin around for a 1st-and-3rd.  Considering that my man Jesus Montero cannot reach second base on a double, I'd say the other dozen guys must be into time warps.

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The 2012 Mariners have been famously good at fielding batted balls.  As measured by UZR/150, they rank 4th of 30 major league teams.  Wow:  a team built on speed and defense, eh?

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You probably got to the punch line before I did:  Jack Zduriencik didn't build this team around small players.  The 2012 Mariners are essentially home run hitters.  Zduriencik, having a choice between outfield and infield with Dustin Ackley, put him in the infield.  The 2012 Mariners, having a choice between LF and CF with Michael Saunders, put him in CF.  Their Opening Day lineup was a typical Zduriencik player, Mike Carp, a power-hitting lefty.

The 2012 Mariners have 51 homers in 43 road games, which is the road HR rate typical of a 200-220 homer team.  Texas has 41 homers in 38 road games.  Zduriencik has put a whale of a lot of effort into putting homer-prone ballplayers into the lineup throughout.

How could a team that was selected for its lefty power --- > also be a speed-and-defense team?

Zdurienik likes him some athletes.

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The 1970's and 1980's Mariners liked athletes too, Marc Newfield types.  Zduriencik likes athletes who can also play baseball.  As Mariners fans, we should all be clear about Zduriencik's stylistic tendencies.  Furbush and Wilhelmsen, for example, are here because of those stylistic tendencies; the pre-Zduriencik M's would have gone nowhere near either pitcher.  

... by the way, Casper Wells' OBP is .365 right now.   Players with comparable OPS+ lines include Shin-Soo Choo, Curtis Granderson and Ben Zobrist.  Andre Ethier, from the other side, produces at a level comparable to Wells' part-time production in 2012.

 

Comments

1
Taro's picture

The Ms have several quality position players at this point (offense+defense+speed). Most of which are going to get better. The only true holes in the lineup at this point are 1B and DH.
It also makes you wonder how bad the pitching staff has become?
The Ms have finally built their team to the park (Lefty hitters, speed in OF) and at this point I think changing the dimensions would do more harm than good. This is the only year that the Ms have had such extreme home/road splits and will likely turn around.

2
Taro's picture

The biggest issues with the offense are once again 1B and DH.. Theoretically the 'easy' positions to fill. This offense is nearly solved.
Jaso in particular isn't the player type to suffer from Safeco (hes a good fit), and hes actually hitting for power with more BBs at Safeco. I wonder if hes just more selective at home? Probably a good adjustment once the BABIPs normalize.

3

I said before that Safeco was designed and built in the heart of the steroid era, when shortstops were hitting 30+ HRs. There were 17 seasons between 95-04 at 30+ HRs for shortstops, SIX since and none more than 35. CF? 38 in that decade, 15 since.
Overall, there were 356 player-seasons between 1995 and 2004 with 30+ HRs, 187 since. We haven't gone a full decade, but the HR totals are still falling. What Safeco was designed to create (a fair park for pitchers) has been compounded by unforeseen elements (the marine layer and LF wind off the Sound) and by the removal of roids from the game to skew the park FAR out of the bounds it was designed to create.
For a long time I've been an advocate of leaving the Safe alone, but we're gonna need to do something.
The question is, of course, do you trust all your young pitching to be good enough to get you wins in a more hitter-friendly park? Does changing the park now undo all your efforts to get LH hitting and good-defense outfielders?
I'd just move the fence in a dozen feet the whole length of the outfield and let your lefty advantage stay, but more and more it looks like something should be done. If the park breaks your young hitters and teaches them habits that mitigate their upside, how is that helping you? If no free agents will come here because of the tough park, what then?
When it was BUILT Griffey and A-Rod complained about it, and they're two of the top 5 HR hitters of all time. No more of those are coming along. You just drafted a RH power catcher who will be park-crushed as well.
Assets are assets. Devaluing your offense to help your staff can be a non-starter, especially when your pitchers can still get hammered at the Safe. Do Hultzen, Paxton, Walker, Erasmo, Pryor, Capps et all REALLY need the Safe at full offensive-crushing impact to be good pitchers?
If not, then do something for the offense. Prince Fielder is not coming here. We have no top-tier offensive help on the way, nor huge-average slap hitters. The Safe will cut down the Catricalas and Franklins of the minors too.
It might just be frustration, but I've come around on the fence issue. The Safe can be made less secure against offense, thanks.
~G

4
Taro's picture

It comes down the best way of maximing your advantages. If moving the fences in makes your offense 7 OPS points better and 13 OPS against worse, then you've lost production.
So you'd have to analyze where we are on that scale of maximizing the current roster's production is. Where are we now on that scale and where do we need to be?
Presently the offense+defense is actually far ahead of the SP IMO. Most of the core position players fit the park well, either than Montero. Our best position player prospect in AAA is a lefty.
Personally not sure how good Hultzen is, but hes another guy that fits the park. Walker+Paxton may never pan out. It remains to be seen. How about Felix? He wouldn't decline significantly but would probably start looking more like a top 15 guy.
Our ERA+ is 89 despite great D and speedy OF in a park where flyballs hang. What happens to that pitching staff when you move the fences in?

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