Whale

If Montero Used ... I'd Be Pretty Surprised

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Q.  If Montero was using, how come we didn't see any 440-footers in 2012?

A.  I was kind of surprised to see that he actually did hit some home runs pretty hard.  I remembered his season, visually, as being like Kendry Morales' ... a big guy who really spent most of his time lining the ball around the park like Johnny Damon.

But Montero did average 104.7 MPH on his HR's and smack three or four pretty good ones.  As the GM of the Twins said one time about Scott Erickson in arbitration, "I guess some guys had a lot better seasons than I remember him having."

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Q.  You don't think he used?

A.  I would assume that he didn't use, certainly, and that despite the allegations.  Am wide open to being proven wrong.

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Q.  Why not?  Montero fan much?

We're Number One

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Gordon sez,

 

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This is the year when Z either proves he can build a team out of all these nice pieces, or he gifts the next GM of the Mariners with the #1 farm club and tons of club controlled pieces to use for his own benefit.
Montero, Ackley, Smoak, Seager, Saunders, Zunino, Franklin, Miller, The Big Three, the whole bullpen... it's a monster, but is it Godzilla or Frankenstein's? If it's Godzilla we should see big footprints soon... right?

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Zduriencik was on the Hot Stove a few weeks back, pointing out how young the M's MAJOR league roster was in 2012.  

He said something about 13 of 25 players being first year, or something like that.  If you totally ignore the minor league system -- which is probably #1 in baseball -- then as a totally separate issue the Mariners have

  • Dustin Ackley (these three guys were, in effect, the three Ryan Brauns of their AAA classes)
  • Jesus Montero
  • Justin Smoak 
  • Kyle Seager (3.6 WAR as a rookie ...  could be 4-5 WAR in year two, as an SSI Best Bet)
  • Michael Saunders (3 WAR last year in CF if you discount UZR ... headed north)
  • Erasmo Ramirez (SSI near-Best Bet)
  • Wilhelmsen, Capps, Pryor

Zduriencik claimed that the Mariners were unique in baseball, the only team with so many core rookies.  It's worth considering.

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=== MLB.com ===

M's with five more guys in MLB's top 61.  As G says, the M's farm system may be mathematically #1 in baseball.  

POTD Kelly Shoppach, C - the Bat

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Now that pic took guts, baby.  

One time Dave Valle hit a home run and took like 25 seconds to circle the bases.  (Usually it took him 23.)  An Angel hit him the next time up.  "It's like he's Babe Ruth when he hits one," the pitcher groused.  You're kinda supposed to know your place in the game.

I looooov eeeeet :- ) ... expecting a tweet from Richard Sherman on this one.

...............

Saber corner?  "Saber" meaning --- > going by results, performance analysis, outcomes, as opposed to going by the scouting eye.  "Major league organizations pay entirely too much information to what their scouts tell them, and entirely too little information to how their ballplayers have performed." -- Bill James

For whatever reason, the reaction in Seattle seems to be that Shoppach's kind of a joke at the plate, one who excuses his existence by hitting the occasional home run.  Like pretty much the second coming of Miguel Olivo.  Oh, maybe a little better than that.

Let's not be pusillanimous here, gentlemen.  There has, so far, been no important difference between the hitting of Kelly Shoppach and the hitting of these two catchers:

C AVG OBP SLG OPS+
Shoppach 226 314 418 96
Saltalamacchia 239 302 418 89
Weiters 260 328 421 102

The above guys get about 4.5 runs per 27 outs, which of course is league average.  Miguel Olivo gets you about 3.5 runs per 27 outs, which of course is about 513 runs per season.

.............

You might ask why Kelly Shoppach does not have a starting job somewhere, making $7M a season.  In my view, his big vulnerability gives him a very high Fangraphs SUNBRN rating; left overexposed he wouldn't be able to maintain the .420 SLG that Saltalamacchia and Weiters can maintain under full pressure.

Shaun Marcum and Hisashi Iwakuma

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We break from our moratorium on actual baseball pictures in order to bring you this virtual representation of ... sunlight.  

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=== Do We Really Need Matt Damon AND Mark Wahlberg? ===

Ghost mentions about Marcum in the comments.  (My wife's family is a Marcum family, third-gen from Ireland and England - cf. the Shaun spelling.  Betcha they're not too distantly related.)

Shaun Marcum and Hisashi Iwakuma are two of the most-comparable pitchers in the majors.  Both use a 25-25-25-25 type ratio of pitches; Marcum uses a killer 80 changeup, Iwakuma a 84 shuuto in order to glean the necessary MLB(TM) respect.  If Marcum didn't have his straight change, if Iwakuma didn't have his shuuto, they'd be AAAA pitchers.  Those signature weapons are the keys to their careers.

They pitch in VERY similar ways.

As well, Marcum has a lifetime Three True Outcomes of 7.3 K, 2.8 BB, and 1.2 HR, compared to Iwakuma last year, which was 7.4, 2.7, and 1.1.  Here, let's split that out, just for the brainiac Big Blog lurkers among us:

  K BB HR
Marcum 7.3 2.8 1.2
Iwakuma 7.4 2.7 1.1

We kid, we kid.  You know we love ya, LrKrBoi29 ... :- )

Conspiracy Theories

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=== Plot Spoiler and Caveat Emptor ===

Here there be philosophy, ethics, and politics, as they relate to business and baseball.  If that's not your thing, you might wish to click on past this one.

Tacoma Rain axs,

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Guys - hang in there with me on this, cuz' I'm really not trying to prove Bigfoot killed Oswald here....
The Mariners are always tight lipped about everything. Right? EVERYTHING. But the M's are ALWAYS - NO COMMENT - on any trades proposals, ESPECIALLY the ones that do not work. Jack has made it a point NEVER to include names.
Yet for THIS trade proposal, we know EVERY name.
Now at first we would say, yeah but the Diamondbacks are in volved too, so Towers is talking... BUT this story is on the Mariner's web site. This story is on Shannon's blog. This story has even had Jack himself talk about it. AND we know EVERY name. It's like the Mariner's are broadcasting this story... and the Mariners are fanning the flames too, by trying to keep people talking about this story.
Harold Reynolds is talking up the fact that UPTON does NOT want to come to Seattle EVER? Harold Reynolds, MLB TV Host.
What is going on?

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The only thing that makes ANY sense to me is that Jack is doing this to get the attention of the MLB or the commissioner.
I am sure there are reasons to do this... like take pressure off the Marlins so they can make a trade, or get a first round draft pick next year, or ???
I am open to your suggestions and comments.

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=== Talking Points ===

1.  Conspiracies do occur.

Some how, some way, at some date, the modern American press was able to stigmatize this phrase "conspiracy theory."  Just the mention of the phrase is enough to falsify any protest against a political agenda.

There is a rich, complex set of arguments -- on both sides -- available on the subject of gun control.  The NRA sincerely fears an agenda to completely disarm the American populace and in the NRA's view, this could lead to a totalitarian government riding herd over its citizens with impunity.

Most NRA members don't particularly feel like they need 30-round magazines for their rifles, but what they do feel like, is that some segments of American society are trying to incrementally work towards a situation in which no American legally owns a gun at all. 

Very often the logical retort against the NRA consists of --- > laughter, pointing, and "Look at the conspiracy theorists!"  And very often this retort is completely effective.

How many U.S. senators and representatives would like to see private gun ownership outlawed?  Of course there are some.  Why, then, respond to the NRA's protest with Conspiracy Theory Kook ridicule?  Why not simply make the case that citizens should not own guns?

It's not about right wing or left wing, as such.  The left wing might oppose prayers at school assemblies not because a 30-second prayer is so repugnant, but because of its fear of an underlying agenda -- that the right wing, if left unopposed, would saturate the K-12 system with Bible education.  And that's a concern well founded.  Many on the right actually would do this, if it were possible.  

Why then ridicule the left over its concerns that an agenda exists?  An agenda does exist.  Those who deny the existence of the agenda are being dishonest, but they're being effectively dishonest.  The "Conspiracy Theory" accusation wields tremendous power in our society.  Too much power.

Paxton, Franklin, Furbush and Pryor?

 

Q.  Paxton*, Franklin, Furbush and Pryor?

A.  The DBacks should be DDEEEEEEE-LIGHTED with that return.  Man, if I were dealing a problem attitude for a rebuild ... two big time ML-ready blue chippers, one arm and one bat, AND two 10-strikeout ML relievers.  KA-CHING baby!

Furbush and Pryor is one thumb to each eye, but can you hold up your blockbuster over middle relievers, when you've got pitchers coming out your ears?  

Super impressed if that's what the DBacks did, squeeze the sponge to get those two middle relievers that the M's can't afford to argue about.

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Q.  Earlier you called Franklin your fave trade chip.

A.  Nick Franklin has become the single trade chip who was most superfluous, since according to Geoffy the Mariners have Brad Miller pencilled in at SS.   He is both (1) hyper-talented and (2) crowded out in Seattle.

And giving up one of the Big Three ... Big Four now, right, with Erasmo?   We talk all the time about this:  only 25 men go on a roster at once.  You have GOT to take into account that players 26-150 are wasted horsepower.  

Rauuuuuul's Production in 2013

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=== Slow Down One Second, Guys ===

It's not far-fetched to believe that Rauuuul could be a better hitter, at age 41, than any of the in-house options available to Zduriencik.  I was surprised to see that a fair number of age-41 players have hit well, including recently:

  • Brian Downing - .407 OBP (!), 138 OPS+ in 400 plate appearances for Texas 1992
  • The Edgar - 300/400/500 season at age 40, roughly league-average hitting at age 41
  • Carlton Fisk - a 135 OPS+ at ages 41 *and* 42 for Chicago 1990-91
  • Paul Molitor - more BB's than K's, nearly league-average hitting for Minnesota in 1998
  • Dave Winfield - 138 OPS+ with 108 RBI at age 40, better than league at 41, almost league at 42 for Minny
  • Pete Rose - hit .325 with a .391 OBP for Philly in 1981, hit league-average at 43

Of course, you have a bunch of Ted Williamses, Ty Cobbs, Luke Applings and Honus Wagners who were bona fide stars at age 41.  We wouldn't consider these old-timers relevant as it pertains to the question of 21st-century competition at age forty.

Swisher in Safeco

 

Fascinating peek behind the curtain from, not James in this case, but the Red Sox' VP:

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The phils new SP, John Lannan , is 2-5with a 6- plus era in Citizens bank park. How much stock do u give such things generally and how much does it mean for pitching in cbp for lannan facing the nats braves mets etc?

Asked by: PeteDecour

Answered: 12/16/2012

 

It doesn't mean anything, except it expands my respect for the Phillies a little.   If a player plays well against YOU, you'd be surprised how much that drives demand for him within an organization.     It's unusual that a team would sign a player who has pitched poorly against them.  

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Dr. D had to sit and digest that one for a minute.  I mean, it's definitely true; you think back over the past 20 years and it's hard to think of even a single exception.

And it's true, it seems, to a HUGE degree.

What is hard to figure, is how exactly this works within an organization.  Obviously you don't have six field scouts telling Jack Zduriencik, hey, Josh Hamilton hasn't hit very well in Safeco so far.  That isn't how it works.  

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