Seattle Sports Insider

Shaun Marcum and Hisashi Iwakuma

I'll take about a million of 'em ... well, gimme two, at any rate

Posted by

1/19/13

We break from our moratorium on actual baseball pictures in order to bring you this virtual representation of ... sunlight.

=== Do We Really Need Matt Damon AND Mark Wahlberg? ===

Ghost mentions about Marcum in the comments. (My wife's family is a Marcum family, third-gen from Ireland and England - cf. the Shaun spelling. Betcha they're not too distantly related.)

Shaun Marcum and Hisashi Iwakuma are two of the most-comparable pitchers in the majors. Both use a 25-25-25-25 type ratio of pitches; Marcum uses a killer 80 changeup, Iwakuma a 84 shuuto in order to glean the necessary MLB(TM) respect. If Marcum didn't have his straight change, if Iwakuma didn't have his shuuto, they'd be AAAA pitchers. Those signature weapons are the keys to their careers.

They pitch in VERY similar ways.

As well, Marcum has a lifetime Three True Outcomes of 7.3 K, 2.8 BB, and 1.2 HR, compared to Iwakuma last year, which was 7.4, 2.7, and 1.1. Here, let's split that out, just for the brainiac Big Blog lurkers among us:

	K	BB	HR
Marcum	7.3	2.8	1.2
Iwakuma	7.4	2.7	1.1

We kid, we kid. You know we love ya, LrKrBoi29 ... :- )

Marcum and Iwakuma would be statistically identical, even if they didn't pitch the same way, which they absolutely do. Seven+ strikeouts is almost impossible when nobody respects your heater, but these two guys have cornered the market on pitchability. They are solidly in the Greg Maddux / Jamie Moyer template.

Both get a huge amount of whiffs for their stuff, but both also have to be careful about the gopher ball. In this respect Iwakuma has the nod, because he gets groundballs. The grounder ratio is the big thing that creates an important difference between the two.

In Marcum's corner, you've got the counterbalancing factor that his major league history is much better established. That's the same thing as saying he's a more sabermetric-friendly asset; saber is about PAST PERFORMANCE analysis. Marcum's past is superior to Iwakuma's.

=== Said All That to Say This, Dept. ===

If you don't pair these two guys off, you don't believe in baseball comparables, period. You couldn't find two pitchers who were cut from more similar cloth. Pretty rare to see two guys pitch the same way, and yet wind up with SUCH identical statlines, not when those statlines are unusual.

There is a payoff here - a generalization that you can draw about pitchers within this template.

Bill James once said that this kind of pitcher "will be able to get outs as long as he's able to raise his arm above his head." SSI is a bit squeamish about Hisashi Iwakuma's ability to munch 200 innings, and Marcum also poses questions about his TJ elbow. Neither is a bankable 600 IP the next three years, but both will be #2-3 quality starters whenever they are able to pitch.

=== Blue Tag 99c Mondays ===

There's an excellent Fangraphs article rat cheer with a .gif that captures Marcum better than 500 words could. As Mike Axisa puts it, "when people see a swing like this, with a radar reading [of 87], it kinda freaks them out a little. It doesn't look or feel right" .... which echoes the way the Seattle Mariners froze Iwakuma-san out of their rotation in the first half of 2012.

Shaun Marcum has THE slowest fast pitch in the major leagues.* This does not win him friends in baseball dugouts, any more than Iwakuma's wussy-looking repertoire made people any quicker to understand him. Put Jamie Moyer in a doppleganger body, so that nobody knew who he was, and he wouldn't have a chance...

Marcum figures to be way undervalued in the FA market because (1) it's "ugly" to watch him pitch, and (2) his durability is a legit question. But what that means, for the discerning shopper, is a huge value opportunity. The M's paid 50c on the dollar for Iwakuma, and perhaps could do something similar on Marcum.

=== The Tools of Victory, Dept. ===

Let's finish up with Ron Shandler's take on Marcum for 2013:

[High Base Performance Index of 75, making him an HQ roto favorite]

Elbow injury cost him two months, but his skills remain those of a solid starter. Miller Park has done him no favors -- he was over a run a game better on the road in 2012, over two runs better in 2011. He's a FA and a flyball pitcher. If he lands in a decent pitcher's park and the elbow is sound ... UP: sub-3.50 ERA

Me personally, I dunno that I wouldn't just want to go with:

Felix
Mr WBC-san
Erasmo Ramirez
Paxton, Hultzen, Capps and/or Wilhelmsen

With the kids we got in this org, man, let them pitch. Get their year of learning out' the way in 2013. As Gordon has emphasized, other orgs let their Gio Gonzalezes pitch before they are 100% suitable for baseball's All-Star Game. Why are 4-walk rookies okay for the backs of other rotations, but the Seattle Mariners are morally above the muck and grind of watching a rookie SP take his lumps?

But if the Mariners feel the need for a #4 pitcher, Shaun Marcum looks like the man. Between him AND Iwakuma you can bank on 250+ star power innings for about $15M.

As a #4 starter, Shaun Marcum would make a whale of a #2-3 starter.

BABVA,

Dr D

............

*The exceptions are not relevant.

Comments

Younguns

Pick one to bring up. Likely scenario that he gets sent down in a couple months with a better understanding of what to work on and bring the next one in. If they're pitching with a quality you just can't deny, then oops you lost a year on that one and that ones a front runner for rookie of the year. Chances are they have their struggles and sending them back down pauses the clock again.
They don't have to stay down until June, any 2+ month period will work. This scenario isn't all that odd either, many pitchers have started out with the big club, gone down and come back.

When did it become a sin for a mega-prospect to bounce

With these Ackley, Smoak, Pineda types ... people act like with THEM, if you call them up and they don't stay up, then you rushed them. Whereas with a Mike Carp or a Michael Saunders, if they have to go back and forth several times, hey, that's how baseball works.
No idea why the double standard.

yeah...but...

I agree with you about choosing one young gun to start in April. But...look carefully at our rotation. If you pick just one young pitcher to try in the regular season, you are still short one starter. Felix, Iwakuma (who may not pitch the full season), Ramirez, ??????, young kid. The ????? would currently be filled with Blake Beavan. That will not be fun in the smaller ballpark.
Marcum gets grounders and Ks, pitches deep into games as long as he's healthy and you don't have to sign him uber-long-term. It's a no-brainer.

Expectations?

I understand that an A-Rod can take some time and a couple trips back down. So many seem to think if they don't gangbust like Trout then they're a bust. I am not sure where the perception comes from. Less patience maybe? I know there was almost daily talk of Ackley from the day he was drafted while A-Rod was only mentioned here and there. No blogs then though. Anderson was talked about alot, then Felix. Felix wasn't considered a bust exactly, just a disappointment in that he "should be so much more, but just isn't getting it". But Felix never really struggled in comparison to how much Ackley has. I don't know, but I never expect a prospect to just come on immediately upon entering the show. Not that it hasn't excited me, but all the mariners prospects that i recall doing so, at least since Griffey, never panned out in the long run.
I've never believed that there was one answer in regards to how to bring a young player along that was best for all of them. Pitchers used to often get introduced in the bullpen but teams have mostly gone away from that. It worked for maybe 50% of the ones in the Hall though. I think a lot of that has to do with not wanting to see a stud pitcher go max effort and damage something. It's on the teams to figure out what's best, it's just seems to me that they aren't when the approach is "one size fits all".

What's your expectation of his contract?

The M's having traded Vargas, and Iwakuma-san being as fragile as he is, I definitely would not be against a 2-year deal for Marcum. Not sure whether it would take three.
MLBTR predicted "appeal to many teams if he's open to a two-year deal." Maybe that's the holdup? So you'd go 3/$30M or what?

That makes sense - running scared with super-assets

Why that provides a feeling of security, though, I dunno. Keep Paxton down until he looks perfect, then bring him up to stay forever, not sure why that "feels" safe. Maybe it is, though.
Or maybe they figure that if he's going to bust, they want him to do it incognito, rather than under the bright lights. ::shrug::

Marcum is the pitching equivalent of Napoli

Real nice player, ordinarily he'd have a nice market, but there appear to be serious injury concerns that are scaring teams off. Of course, that makes him exactly the sort of bargain buy that the Mariners should be in on. If he stays healthy, great, you got an Iwakuma clone for two seasons. If he doesn't, dang, guess I have to give Danny Hultzen a shot.

Kids as risk hedges

I never thought of that.
I wonder if that means that, having a "Perfect Storm" of high-minors prospects, if your theoretically-correct strategy moves towards risk acceptance?

I have no idea

That's kind of my point is that I think you'd have to know what makes them tick to have an idea at how and when tobring them along. Not just what they need to work on, though that's a big part of it too. Things like how they respond to adversity, how ready they are for the spotlight and probably multiple things I wouldn't even come up with.
I wasn't saying not to go after a Marcum or anyone else, always figured there was room for 2 more. I don't know that anyone is "ready"either, just noodling with a thought in the post.
Beaven could still be more than anyone is crediting him for as well. Was he trying different things late in the year or maybe it was just fatigue. His pitch velocities were all over the place the last month plus on all his pitches.

The Ms would say the reverse. :)

They'd see risky, bargain basement veterans as risk hedges for the kids. IOW, the kids only get to play en masse if the fogeys all break, and in the meantime, you have a higher stoploss.
But either way you want to look at it...there's no reason the Mariners should be worried about Marcum's health...we have BEAVAN...I don't like him as a front line option but as a stoploss....he's fine.

Kids

Bring up all the kids! I'm with Doc on this one. Felix, Iwakuma, Hultzen, Erasmo, Paxton. The only chance the Ms have is by catching lightning in a bottle. They can ONLY do that with premium arms. I'd let Walker stay down for a minute, pitch him out of the bullpen when he comes up, or until someone gets hurt, or when his performance dictates that he's one of the best 5 arms that give you a chance to win. No reason for Marcum. That seems like a waste of resources.
I actually like the way the offense is being constructed under the circumstances. Short term commitments to see how things play out. Think 2014

dung beetles

The Mets sign Shaun Marcum and the Mariners want Joe Saunders (shudder of horror)
EW!!! And EW again!

Yea, the kids are the way

I've had the feeling that Porcello in front of a good infield might not be a bad deal for the Ms, but I understand other's reservations. None of the FA pitchers looks like a fit. Maybe Bonderman has something left, maybe Beaven can find a third pitch and improve.
But I can't see a disaster waiting if we just rotate Paxton and Hultzen through with Felix, Iwakuma, Erasmo, and Beaven until we know what might work. Both of them are mature, solid guys. They know they're going to take lumps. It's not like some Latin kid who's in culture shock already, and who's not used to failure, so can't handle the transition to the grind of the majors. And we limit their innings increase by doing it (both had ~130 innings last year IIRC). So, yeah, EW! to signing a journeyman, let's see some of the future.