POTD Kelly Shoppach, C - the Bat
Basking in the luminosity of The Great Batsby ....

.

Now that pic took guts, baby.  

One time Dave Valle hit a home run and took like 25 seconds to circle the bases.  (Usually it took him 23.)  An Angel hit him the next time up.  "It's like he's Babe Ruth when he hits one," the pitcher groused.  You're kinda supposed to know your place in the game.

I looooov eeeeet :- ) ... expecting a tweet from Richard Sherman on this one.

...............

Saber corner?  "Saber" meaning --- > going by results, performance analysis, outcomes, as opposed to going by the scouting eye.  "Major league organizations pay entirely too much information to what their scouts tell them, and entirely too little information to how their ballplayers have performed." -- Bill James

For whatever reason, the reaction in Seattle seems to be that Shoppach's kind of a joke at the plate, one who excuses his existence by hitting the occasional home run.  Like pretty much the second coming of Miguel Olivo.  Oh, maybe a little better than that.

Let's not be pusillanimous here, gentlemen.  There has, so far, been no important difference between the hitting of Kelly Shoppach and the hitting of these two catchers:

C AVG OBP SLG OPS+
Shoppach 226 314 418 96
Saltalamacchia 239 302 418 89
Weiters 260 328 421 102

The above guys get about 4.5 runs per 27 outs, which of course is league average.  Miguel Olivo gets you about 3.5 runs per 27 outs, which of course is about 513 runs per season.

.............

You might ask why Kelly Shoppach does not have a starting job somewhere, making $7M a season.  In my view, his big vulnerability gives him a very high Fangraphs SUNBRN rating; left overexposed he wouldn't be able to maintain the .420 SLG that Saltalamacchia and Weiters can maintain under full pressure.

The big vulnerability is tight-spin breaking pitches moving away from him, and there are a fair number of people on the planet who can't deal with those attacks.  If there were a rule against sliders and power RH curves, like there is a rule against spitters, then I'm sure Shoppach would be a celebrity.

Big Sports Secret:  the difference between a LOT of meatballs, and stardom, is just one some little fatal flaw in their games.  There are tons of guys who are 90% star, 10% jake brake.  Sometimes they run into a genius manager who puts them in the right places at the right times and for all intents and purposes they BECOME stars, part time.  Where is Earl Weaver when you need him .......

Not that we're overselling Shoppach.  But the man has talent.

...............

We said this was SABR corner but we can't resist ... Shoppach doesn't look like Olivo at the plate.  He doesn't load up his swing, cheat and start it during the windup, doesn't look like some kind of Brandon League who likes to play without an opponent.  He looks a lot more like a hitter up there; here's an example of his strike zone coverage.

You might ax why he strikes out so much.  Well, he does have the big hole in his swing, the pitch breaking off the plate.  You don't EVER want this guy to face Jered Weaver or Yu Darvish.

But spot him against guys with less-than-vicious breakers, guys who don't base their entire games off the slider or curve ball, pitchers who have a little trouble spotting their curves at times ... give him those normal matchups, he's going to cause some collateral damage.

Whale of a benchie.  Whale of a bridge guy - if you want to give Zunino an extra month now, you can.  Whale of a job by Jay-Z and by ThirteenOfTwo.

BABVA,

Dr D

Comments

1

Shoppach vs RHP, career: .658 OPS
Jaso vs RHP, career: .927 OPS
Kelly hits lefties for an .868 OPS, which would be great if either Montero or Zunino were left-handed - but they aren't. We swapped out a RHP crusher for a fall-on-the-sword type.
So like you said, better spot him carefully. Instead of Montero getting to take tough breaking-ball pitchers off because Jaso is available, he'll get to try his already-poor luck vs. righties against most of the harder ones. Hope he's good to go to start this season and can close that platoon gap.
But this is probably just to buy time for Zunino to log AAA innings and Montero to get more behind-the-plate time, as you intimated. If the backup can't reasonably be placed in the starting lineup EXCEPT to give Montero a day of rest (because everything he does Montero should do as well or better, except throw to 2nd) then Jesus should get to catch a lot of games. I still would have rather had a LH backup catcher. Any port in a storm and all that. If Montero hits like we all want him to then it won't be a problem, right?
Still hoping we can solve the Zunino/Montero conundrum and get both of them a lot of at-bats going forward while having them be very productive hitters. And Shoppach's insurance and means we don't have to bring Olivo back. Can't complain about that.
~G

2

I've previously identified Bryan Anderson of the White Sox as a possible trade target. Hits O.K., catches O.K., but didn't get along with Tony LaRussa. Was a free agent and signed with WS on minors deal.
Another possible target is Steven Lerud of the Phillies. Good defensive C, and may hit enough.
We have trade bait for this level. I wonder if JackZ will make a swap once who the roster excess is becomes evident. I suspect Peguero will go for Shoppach, but Carp and Wells are out of options, and we have a good surplus of bullpen arms from both sides, plus Liddi, Thames, and Triunfel may need to change scenery to get a chance to play.
If we could spring a trade with Philly for Domonic Brown and Lerud, I'd be happy to give them Liddi, Triunfel, and Thames to help with their problems - and if they signed Yuniesky Betancourt as their backup IF, they have serious depth problems behind Utley,Young, and Reyes. And Thames would make a dandy platoon partner for the other Young in RF

3

But it appears that ship has sailed. Maybe, as you suggest, something could happen later this spring. Shoppach can't be traded yet though and I think it's an MLB deal so that would require 3 catchers in Seattle or Tacoma starting with 3 and one of them being the new lefty. If you're seeing it as at least a few years of a partner for Zunino while Montero switches to 1b/DH/3rd catcher for next year that could be worth dealing with the rosters this year though. I'd have understood that better than Shoppach now, but maybe they valued the idea of a veteran for both Montero and Zunino.

4

I'm looking specifically at guys that could be at Tacoma, but come up and help if need be. We have a hole in experience between Montero and Zunino/Hicks, and all of them are RH, so it would make sense to me to trade whatever we have as excess for a piece that fills a gap in our depth, so we don't have to sign a C equivalent of Yuniesky Betancourt for depth if someone is hurt or ineffective. And since our marginal players are in positions that other teams need, and Philly, in particular, will have a good stock of AAA/MLB C after Ruiz serves his suspension, it's worth dreaming/scheming about as we wait for Pitchers and Catchers to report.

5

...wasn't that hard of a call. Came up with it when I was working under the assumption that Jaso would be the team's primary catcher in 2012; Jaso was obviously going to land a platoon partner so the Mariners needed to add a catcher who could mash lefties and preferably had some sort of track record. So I headed over to Fangraphs and set up the following leaderboard:
>catchers
>vs. LHP
>multiple seasons: 2009-2012
>min. 150 PA
>sort by wRC+
It spat out the following list.
#1-4: guys we can’t have (Posey, Lucroy, Napoli, V-Mart)
#5: Jesus Montero (yay!)
#6: Geovany Soto, would’ve been interesting and cheap but Rangers
#7-9: guys we can’t have (Santana, Hanigan, Ruiz)
#10: Ramon Castro, would’ve been interesting and cheap but Dodgers and injuries
#11: guy we can’t have (Iannetta)
#12: retired guy
#13: Kelly Shoppach
(Ronny Paulino, incidentally, is #18 on the list. Gotta love Z's coherency on this one: Shoppach as plan A, Paulino as injury depth in spring training/plan B.)
When Jaso was traded, that kinda went out the window... but not entirely. Obviously a backup catcher was still needed, and obviously Ibanez was going to see playing time vs. RHP (Morales, the DH, is also historically mediocre vs. LHP), so it was still going to be a right-handed guy. Same list. I did, as you recall, very much like Erik Kratz for a while; by all reports he's a pitch-framing master of defense and game-calling who's known for his vast experience handling MiLB pitching staffs and can also hit LHP at an above average rate. Sort of a Shoppach-esque hitter, actually, if not quite as good. But I guess Philly decided they liked him as their backup.

6

especially if they have a legitimate defensive repertoire. They would be along side of Zunino and Paulino presumably. I don't think the M's want 3 catchers this year, anyway.
AAA def CF is another thing they could use.

7

Great point G, as to Montero's trial-by-fire having to take on all the Jered Weavers, Yu Darvishes, Justin Verlanders, and Ian Kennedies this year.
1.  (Assuming that Shoppach and Jaso are otherwise roughly comparable ... very roughly)
1b.  You trade the platoon synergy (Jaso vs Shoppach) for ... your cleanup hitter.  Okayyyy...
2.  Maybe it's not a bad thing for Montero to face the vicious RH-on-RH righties in 2013.  Won't be good for his 2013 roto value, but ....

8

1.  If I were a GM, I'd have my interns giving me tons of yellow sticky notes with lists exactly like that one.  "Pick your favorite lists, kid..."  That's EXACTLY the kind of very simple search that yields big returns.
You wonder, offhand, whether Zduriencik actually saw that specific list.  Could easily be that he saw yours, on LL, and you functioned as an un-acknowledged intern :- )
...........
2.  So my takeaway:  the M's have one of baseball's best lefty-mashing catchers.  Montero is himself a lefty-masher.  I wonder if the M's are moving towards a lineup that is "prohibitive" against lefty starters...  not there yet, but they're definitely doing something anyway to counterbalance the Jaso/Ackley/Seager/Saunders/etc lineup of last year.  Having Shoppach and Montero to go with Morales and Morse should mean a radically better situation vs LHP's.

9

I'm glad to have a cleanup hitter of some stripe. :) I've been waiting a few years to get a pair of MOTO hitters on the team at the same time, and we might have it this year with KMo and Morse. Heck, we could have a really nice string of hitters all chained together if things work out right.
Our roster construction is definitely not all about synergy, though. Jaso + Montero was some kind of synergy. Franklin + Ryan would be another (that I don't expect to see). Wells + Thames could be.
But we seem to have half-a-dozen DH/1B on this team (Ibanez, Morse, Montero, Kendry, Smoak and Carp), all our minor league replacements seem to have migrated to positions that are blocked in the bigs (eg, Franklin and Triunfel to 2B along with Romero and possibly Miller by the end of the year) so we need to shift them off-position to keep them on the radar or trade their blockers...
We have vast resources tied up in these spaghetti pots in an attempt to have enough choices to make the RIGHT ones in March. There are 4 rotation slots behind Felix, and we have TEN pitchers (Iwakuma, Erasmo, Beavan, Noesi, Hultzen, Paxton, Walker, Maurer, Mitchell, and Carraway) at AAA or above trying to fill those 4 slots. That's terrific for getting the best possible mix, you would think; 10-to-make-4 is great. Since Iwakuma is guaranteed a slot, really it's 9-to-make-3.
And then what with the other 6? Do we actually leave a pitcher we want to keep in the minors for longer, since Jack believes that major league time really enhances prospect value? Is it better for Paxton to stay in AAA, if in that scenario Hultzen getting to the bigs might mean Hultzen getting traded in a Stanton-esque package?
How does that sort of thing effect the chemistry of the team?
How does Zunino being The Future at catcher affect Montero this year? Is he going to get out of here and then blow up into a star, or can we find a way to make him a star while he's here?
We had youth in the lineup in historic, almost singular proportions last year. Will that help us, or hurt? We have even more youth on the way. The vets we've added are ALL one-year fliers who won't interrupt the ascent of talent from the farm for long... but can they impact us meaningfully for the better in 2013 despite that? Can vets lead when none of them might be here after the trade deadline?
It feels like a really hard way to create a winning team. This whole process (or at least the way we're going about it) seems more akin to baking than cooking, which I guess means I should stop looking to the cook Billy Beane for examples on how to do this. With cooking you can mess with the ingredients until you get it right. With baking you need to leave it alone and trust that you've got the perfect mix. We need to get the right team coming out of Spring Training, at which point I hope a lot of the overlap and lineup weirdness has settled into a recognizable and productive mix.
I'm fascinated to see the Opening Day iteration of this team take the field. If we go for broke with the kids in a sort of AAA barnstorming club augmented by a couple of veteran bats and a Cy Young winner, and backed by a mega-talented bullpen of 98 MPH death, then I have no idea how that performance will go on the field but I'd be glued to the TV to find out.
If we (once again) tread water with NRI veteran invites and semi-castoffs plugged in at the last minute, I'll be less thrilled. But either way, as you said in the shouts, this team could lose a LOT of games. Or they could win 20 more games than last year by catching lightning in a bottle. Several bottles. We have a raft full of bottles just waiting for that lightning strike.
Maybe this is more of a Frankenstein team after all, just awaiting a spark.
Wouldn't it be funny if Morse turns out to be the spark we've been looking for?
~G

11
blissedj's picture

I took a quick look but couldn't find a website with the M's 2012 Won-Loss Record vs LHP. Does anyone know where to look? If it was a struggle could be an area for huge improvement in 2013 as mentioned above.

12

At b-ref.com -- teamwide splits
vs LH starters they actually hit a little better than vs RH ... all the way up to "very poorly."
.............
On paper this club should jell into a very lefty-predominant batting order; having Shoppach and Montero in there, same day, would buffer that a lot.  But in 2012 they hadn't yet been much of a "righty-bashing" team -- because they didn't bash RHP's.  :- )  They were bad against LHP's, probably for a platoon reason, but bad against RHP's, probably for no reason (other than just being bad). 

13

And to "roundtable" it where I have the whole advantage and every last word :- ) or whether it would be presumptuous to do so.....
Of course, presumption has never been an issue for me before.
...........
As to the Nightmare on Bullpen Street, and being glued to the TV, it will take very little progress (from the two rookie RP's) for Dr. D to go completely off the bend about Wilhelmsen, Capps, Pryor and Furbush.  That could quickly become a 2001-type pen, plus one guy.  And any team which can lay that kind of hurt, innings 6-9, commands respect.
It's soul-draining to be down, 4-2, in the sixth and have a bullpen like that warming up against you.  The late at-bats are embarrassing.

14

I've never had a problem with ideas or words, I just don't make them into good articles. If you can get miileage out of my ramblings, feel free.
And yes, our pen could wind up obliterating the opposition in the late innings. I'm really looking forward to potentially getting to see the Fireman role used with malice aforethought and having a rock-solid setup for innings 7-8-9 as well. Did I mention that we have a potential goldmine of lefty relievers to boot? We'll have the complete set of Ginsu knives as well as the scissors AND knife block. Such a deal.
I also like the idea that if something unfortunate happens to one of the members of the pen we have plenty of arms around to pick up the slack. The pen should be a net positive at worst, and the strength of the team at best.
Just gotta get 6 good innings out of the starters and some runs from the offense. It's the latter that's been the problem, but Lonnie was at FanFest and says the new wall is basically in your lap as a spectator behind home plate, so runs may be a-comin'.
All the more reason an armada of arms to hold down the opposition is a good thing to have.
~G

15

The DH/1b thing is partially due to there being nothing close there in the minors. They're also not appearing to be really counting Montero as anything but catcher just yet. Bay may not have happened if they knew they were getting Ibanez and Morse, but more options are better anyway. It's not a problem in any way except our confusion being raised.
The logjam at 2nd is already being moved to corners in a few cases. Corner outfield depth is going to come from that logjam to some extent and some players just profile well there anyway. Sure they profile better at 2nd overall, but they can still fit if they hit.
I mentioned in a recent chat about the depth of starters. I neglected Michell and Vasquez and didn't think of AA starter Anthony Fernandez that most years would probably be going to AAA. He's still got a shot. Ignoring the org filler, that's actually 14 starters vying for 10 rotation spots between Tacoma and Seattle. That's a lot of options. I don't think it's necessary to bring in a starter since it's only a level of success far above what people are expecting that would make a couple wins worth going for. Save the bullets for a"need".
On the veterans in general, yeah it could go either way. Specifically with Ibanez he's said he came here for exactly that reason. Morse has basically said he's an Ibanez disciple in that regard and sees his place on the team as having importance in that regard. He has just been that type of guy with Washington and there's no reason to think he is only thinking about this year either. Morales and Shoppach may or may not contribute much in the way of leadership, but I think Shoppach is likely to from what I've read. Ibanez credits Javier as his mentor in that regard and I've considered Stan the biggest spark from that 2001 team. That's based on what I've heard from players and reporters. Javier didn't have to play every day and hit 40 hr to be a leader.
I love the bullpen and envision the possibility of it becoming ridiculously strong as well. It's not like those 14 starters can all stay there with us, so even some of that depth may add to the bullpen. Bonderman in long relief isn't a stretch, neither is Erasmo. Many starters have come into the MLB as mop up for their first taste too.
I've had the same thought on if they're bringing one straight from camp should it be the one they want to keep or the one they want to trade. For me the difference is mostly in looking 7 years out, all other factors don't seem as big. If one is up and another is earning it in say June I'm pretty sure they'll find a way to have them both up. That is, unless the one that's up needs to go back down. Anything else is assuming no injuries and good performances while also not wanting to trade any in front or just not having a market. That seems like a good position to be in anyway.
I think the team added some spark already and that Ryan will provide some this year to go along with it. Health and the gambling on the back end of the rotation are my biggest concerns. Excitement and anticipation...it's like waiting 5 years again for the next "Song of Ice and Fire" book...I just know it's going to be good.
There's some chances being taken this year, but if they're the 70 win team the projections are proclaiming shouldn't they be doing exactly that? Why are the same people who put faith in those projections also saying they should take the safe 1.5 win upgrade? Volatility is more likely to get this squad there than safe anyway.

16
Lonnie of MC's picture

At FanFest I took a look at where the wall will be and blast if it doesn't look like a short porch to left. Maybe it's because I am more used to seeing the great expanse of Coors Field, but that left field fence at Safeco sure looks like it needs a very large green wall behind it.

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