Whale

Carolina 7 ...

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Q.  What qualifications does Dr. D have, if any, to post on sports that feature balls larger than a coffee cup?

A.  Definitely NOT that he has kept up with X's, O's, 3-Techs or dollar dimebacks.  And not even that he could do a decent job in fantasy football any more.

One thing he does have that you kiddies don't ... the number of games watched, lifetime.  Dr. D definitely passes the Black Ink HOF Test (top 10 in league appearances) there.  Once again the 3rd deck point-of-view comes into play.

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Q.  What is the difference between a blog post and an e-zine article?  Or a chat thread?

A.  The original "weblog post," before you were born, son, was a type of diary entry.  It might contain light tips or brief information of very limited use to the author's friends.

An "article" purports to analyze or explain a topic in a more comprehensive way.  The content in it is supposed to be high-quality, and of considerable value to the 50th-percentile reader - who likely isn't living in the same house as the author.

When Dr. D posts on the NFL, he is launching a 3rd type of entry:  the "chat thread."  :- )  Feel free to do the same.

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Q.  What do you make of a 12-7 victory?  Panthers probly woulda won if that running back hadn't dropped the ball on his way to The Promised Land.

Dana Point

If you need some time away from city life, consider a little excursion out onto the ocean.  DanaPoint is located along the California coast, about an hour southeast of Los Angeles and an hour north of San Diego.  They offer a wide variety of water-themed attractions, from whale watching to fishing trips to just cruising about and enjoying the aquatic life.  One can find dolphins, seals, sea lions and more in addition to the whales at Dana

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Rockport

About an hour northeast of the city of Boston is the small town of Rockport, a perfect place for couples to spend a day away, relaxing and taking in the many sights and activities that the town has to offer.  You can hang out on the beaches, enjoying the views of the water, or take a walk on some of the hiking trails.  There are many historic lighthouses to visit as well as other activities within the town itself.  If going out on the water is more your thing, Rockport offers scuba diving, kayaking, whale watching (durin

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Whale Watching in Newport Beach

There are few things more amazing than having a whale break the surface of the ocean right next to you.  For those living in Los Angeles, this sort of experience is readily available, as the whale migration route runs right along the coast.  Taking a whale watching tour is a great way to spend some time with your loved one, building memories that will last a lifetime.  Newport Landing Whale Watching is one company that offers these sorts of tours, providing numerous trips on a daily basis during the migration season.  Has anyone ever

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Abraham Almonte

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During the ROOT telecast they gushed about Abraham Almonte on Monday afternoon (in May - Dr D).  They quoted a notable scout saying, "Almonte is good enough to be in Seattle right now," which is scout-speak for "Almonte could step into the lineup in Seattle and improve their team immediately."

There isn't much in Almonte's statline to go off.  If you just joined us, the Mariners took him back from NYY for Shawn Kelley, and he's never been an org top-10 prospect.  He is 24 and has hit .264/.343/.391 in 8 minor league seasons, with an EYE around 0.60; we told you there wasn't much there.  It's an important excuse that his 2010 season was lost to a shoulder injury.

Brad Miller - Level 201 Scan, continued

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Q.  What does his defense look like, from the 3rd deck?  Be brutally honest.

A.  He looks like a 1970's shortstop to me.

I don't know why I think of 1970's shortstops as being Bud Harrelson and Tim Foli, those wiry-strong (white) guys who were respectable but not great.  If you actually looked it up, maybe you'd find that there are more J.J. Hardys playing today than there were then.

By 1970's shortstop, I'm typecasting a man with unremarkable athleticism who is scrappy, smart, and competent...  that's what Miller looks like STANDING there, that's what he looks like moving around, sort of.

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Q.  Objectively speaking, what's the scouting report?

A. He's actually faster and quicker than the average AL shortstop.  The arm is average or not quite - that's what we've seen, the last month.  He's not going to cannon people down from the hole like Brendan Ryan, but he makes the throws.

The numbers all agree:  he's a -10 runs defender, this year.  That's like Asdrubal Cabrera, definitely a -10 guy, and Stephen Drew, a third left handed bat-first guy.  It's pretty clear that, in 2013 and probably in 2014, Miller is going to be right around -10 runs defensively.

For two years, we got bat-first shortstop who does a decent (not problematic) job with the mitt.  So sue him.

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Q.  And you know how Zduriencik loves those guys.

Logan's Article on Saunders' Front Shoulder

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Exec Sum - What the Article Says

Counselor Mojo calls our attention to this Lookout Landing article by Thirteen, claiming that it is "one of the best articles written about the Mariners all summer."  He's right.  In the article, Logan says:

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JUST THE FA'AX, MA'AM

1.  Michael Saunders hit .270/.360/.560 the first six weeks of this year.  Then he has hit .270/.360/.560 since the All-Star Break.  In between, there were about two months.

2.  There have been about 180 shoulder injuries reported by Yahoo in the last 12 years.  (He counted these up by hand!)

3.  About 80 of those could be compared to Michael Saunders' shoulder injury.  (His premises are sound, IMHO.)

4.  Logan took a shipload of time, compiling monthly stats splits for these 80 guys AS THEY RETURNED from injury.  (This is the kind of thing that Bill James does, sit in his office and burn a day going through 1956 Sporting Newses.  It is the kind of thing that Bobby Fischer did, sit in his room and burn a day leafing through old Russian chess magazines.)

5.  The 80 players were -- as a group -- weak in ISO (homers, doubles) the 1st month ... terrible!, the 2nd month ... and back to normal the 3rd month.

6.  When the BACK shoulder was injured -- the left one for Saunders -- stats dropped off only a little on return.

7.  When the FRONT shoulder was injured -- the right one for Saunders -- the 80 players' power dropped off a whale of a lot.

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INFERENCES BY LOGAN

The Defensive Problems in 2013

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On July 19, 2013, the Seattle Mariners started both Dustin Ackley and Raul Ibanez in the outfield against the Cubs.  They gave up 7 runs, but scored 10, and won.

On July 9, 2013, the M's started Ackley and Ibanez against the Red Sox, and gave up 11 runs.  They lost, 8-11.

How's this OF config working for them?

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Defense ... vs Offense ... vs Roster Config.  THREE Subjects, Not Two

Hm.  I wasn't biased either way when I started typing, but at first glance, the 1B/DH answer looked like kind of a no-brainer to me.  The center field defense was kind of kludgy there for a few weeks.  On the other hand, our offense went from vomit-worthy to the team strength.  Not meaning to be snide, why are we talking about this?

Well, there is a reason, or could be.  The team's DER is .700 this year, #24 in baseball.  Last year it was .718, #4 in baseball.  If you want to angle the discussion 10 degrees, and debate offense vs. defense in 2013, that would be a legit debate (and we all know where it would wind up).  

But the center field defense, as such?  How much of that .718 to .700 DER dropoff is due to CF?  Saunders HAS played the lion's share of the CF defense in 2013.

Ackley's played 24 games in CF, and he will play there in 2014 whatever your roster config.  Ackley's CF play isn't going to be a cost associated with anything.  Except with the 2009 draft.

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Trade Market - Nick Franklin

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Comps

If you just joined us, the original Bill James concept was "which two players could you trade for each other, without affecting either team?"  He used to consider SS's and 2B's as interchangeable for the purposes of that discussion.  You know, like "The most-comparable player to Nick Franklin is actually a teammate, Brad Miller.  And the second-most comparable is another teammate, Kyle Seager."

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For the purposes of this section we'd better assume that everybody is a DH and runs the 40-yard dash in 7.0 seconds.

At .265/.333/.459 and with his EYE ratio, Franklin has been ALREADY a swappable hitting comp for Kendrys Morales (.339 OBP, .463 SLG).  At the moment, he's also been loosely comparable to Prince Fielder, Matt Holliday, Mike Napoli and Kyle Seager.  The M's ain't on a winning streak for nuttin', honey.

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Which also leaves the intriguing question:  will Franklin be any good --- > after he's come out of his first trip 'round, and is no longer purely reactive?  This isn't a Cuban "see ball, hit ball" hitter we're talking about.  This is a thoughtful hitter.

Hold up your hand if you think Nick Franklin is UNLIKELY to become Jimmy Rollins.  Or maybe that's a little modest?

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