As an Atlanta resident now, I remember the playoff game here last year. I told my circle of contacts that Atlanta needed a fast start to beat the 'Hawks and if the game started at 4pm (EST) instead 1pm, it wouldn't even be a contest. Typical reaction here is "what are you talking about?" It's a well-known fact, backed up by plenty of data (it's been awhile since I've researched [someone else's] work on this), that the west coast travelling team is at a much bigger disadvantage going east than east coast teams are going west - when dealing specifically with the 10am start. We can apply all the standard, "you gotta overcome this kind of stuff" we want (and it's true), but it is also true that the disadvantage exists.
People talk about the '49ers tough road schedule, but they only have 2 10am games and the 'Hawks have 5. Like it or not, they'll have to deal with that.
In order to prevent another 10AM playoff game, they're going to need to win 13 games. In order to win 13, they're going to have poach at least 3 of those 10AM games.
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Q. What qualifications does Dr. D have, if any, to post on sports that feature balls larger than a coffee cup?
A. Definitely NOT that he has kept up with X's, O's, 3-Techs or dollar dimebacks. And not even that he could do a decent job in fantasy football any more.
One thing he does have that you kiddies don't ... the number of games watched, lifetime. Dr. D definitely passes the Black Ink HOF Test (top 10 in league appearances) there. Once again the 3rd deck point-of-view comes into play.
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Q. What is the difference between a blog post and an e-zine article? Or a chat thread?
A. The original "weblog post," before you were born, son, was a type of diary entry. It might contain light tips or brief information of very limited use to the author's friends.
An "article" purports to analyze or explain a topic in a more comprehensive way. The content in it is supposed to be high-quality, and of considerable value to the 50th-percentile reader - who likely isn't living in the same house as the author.
When Dr. D posts on the NFL, he is launching a 3rd type of entry: the "chat thread." :- ) Feel free to do the same.
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Q. What do you make of a 12-7 victory? Panthers probly woulda won if that running back hadn't dropped the ball on his way to The Promised Land.
A. People underestimate the luck involved in a 13-3 kind of season. Go back and look at seasons where teams won 11, 12, 13 games and you'll find a handful of victories that turned on one play. The difference between last year's 11 Seahawk wins, and 8 wins, was probably 3 plays.
People were talking blowout for the Seahawks. Dr. D figured the Seahawks would be VERY lucky to escape with a narrow win in this game. Since the Panthers changed the offense for Cam Newton, they've been super tough. And at home?
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Seahawks sat down on the ball, final drive, which probably would have won the game in an alternate universe in which they'd been behind. At any rate, any game in which you throw for 300 and the other guys throw for 100, I'm not going to back up to claim my Yoo-Hoo shower.
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Q. Newton threw for like 2 yards on the day.
A. Despite having Elway-like relaxation in the pocket. That legion of booooom is the real deal ... since the 1972 Dolphins, through the 1970's Raiders, and 1980's 49'ers, etc., Dr. D has been watching dynasties begin with dominant secondaries.
It ain't the only way, but it's a very logical way to go from terrible to elite. Three MVP-caliber defensive backs. Bill Walsh took a pathetic football franchise and started with (A) Joe Montana and (B) Ronnie Lott, Dwight Hicks and Eric Wright.
It's not just Seattle bias. Carroll's approach to defense is historically sound, and Sherman is a Ronnie Lott-level player.
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Q. Newton put quite the pretty little style move on that 1st down signal when he ran for five yards.
A. Best thing about the game, man. Not having to watch Cam Newton's strut if he had DONE anything.
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Q. Who caused that fumble, Sherman or Thomas?
A. Pete Carroll is into "explosive plays" and turnovers. He's the anti-Knox, he's got inner city types at 22 positions, and the Force Is With Him. Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas are extreme athletes, Kenny Easley types, and as Chuck Knox said "Big games are won by great athletes."
If only LincStrong and Fangraphs could get the idea, as to how sports work. Pro football, baseball, and basketball stadiums are a whale of a lot more like a Roman colosseum than they are like a chess tournament hall. NFL, MLB and NBA games are won with talent, not formulas.
College basketball coaches used to believe that you won because the coach was smart, and they quite literally controlled the movement of every player on every play of the game. Pete Carroll is a pro (not college) coach, 21st century edition; he lets the dogs out, and they skeletonize the gazelle in front of them. The Mariners are run by 1980's NCAA basketball coaches.
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Q. Overall, did the Seahawks look like the Super Bowl?
A. This particular game went exactly as expected, give or take an extra level from Russell Wilson and a disappointment on the pass rush. But considering the D-line was playing its second team, yeah. For me the Seahawks were a smidge better than expected.
NEXT
Comments
Yesterday's game had "trap" written all over it, as have many early season early games in the past. I am a strong believer in the "Legion of Boom" and their ability to impose their will on the receivers of the opponents. Going forward that will be a stronger weapon as the season goes on.
In September everyone is fresh, everyone has hope and a bounce in their step.
The effect of the 'Hawks secondary will stronger as the season wears on and opponents will be already banged up (as everyone is later in the season).
I, for one, am not terribly worried if the 'Hawks don't look "Super Bowl sharp" early, but they'll still need to take some of these close games that missed on last year. They will when it counts. And yesterday was a good start.
*MY* takeaways - (obviously looking from exactly the opposite perspective.
1) Very impressed with Carolina's defense.
2) Very impressed with Seattle's defense.
3) Very unimpressed with the game itself.
Hard to imagine such a tight game have such a low sense of drama throughout. As I watched the first half, half the time the Panthers would stop Seattle, and the other half, Seattle would draw a flag and thwart their drive themselves. I'm not sure how many of those 300 yards were generated because Carolina was playing soft on third and long ... but if I were voting for Players of the Game, it would've been the two punters ... and that kind of sums up the overall tone of the game.
Carolina could move the ball on the ground, but there was very little effort to stretch Seattle, and what there was - didn't work.
So, Seattle managed one good drive in the first half and got a FG.
Carolina managed one good drive in the first half and managed a TD.
Then Seattle had a decent drive for the FG in the second half. Then managed the one big play that won the day.
Don't get me wrong - Seattle deserved the close win. But, for a nail biter the game action on the whole was rather listless.
I will note that part of the Panther problem the past couple of years has been 4th quarter defense. Whether we take a late lead or not, it seems like no matter how dominant our defense might be throughout the day, late in the 4th, EVERY team just racks up 1st downs at will down the stretch. And, (just like previous seasons), in those last 5 minutes we couldn't get our hands back on the ball.
If not for the fumble, I have little doubt that playing from behind, Seattle would've ended up in the Red Zone with at least three shots for the last second win.
Hopefully, our showing against a fun pre-season SB pick is evidence we are at least in the running for the playoffs.
Simply cannot function as well, soon after getting out of bed, as I can at the 8-12 hour mark after waking up.
This factor is, if anything, understated.
That's a point that had never occurred... once the level of competition on the field drops even a little bit, the elite athlete becomes exponentially more dominant...
Reminds of Jeff Kemp's 15 passes to Steve Largent in the first half of that strike game :- )
since week 11 of last year, they've been an upper-tier team, probably. I felt like the Seahawks pulled off an escape there -
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Wonder why a team's defense would be susceptible in the 4th quarter. Usually I would associate that with predictability -- with having only a certain number of things you do well. Then the offensive coordinator kind of solves the formula as the game goes on?
The Hawks are pretty banged up right now, too. Browner, Avril and Clemons would all be starters on defense and Harvin would be the big play guy that Wilson is missing on the offensive side. There is a pretty good chance that this team will get stronger as the season progresses and they start getting some of those big name guys back.