Trade Market - Nick Franklin
Shame we didn't cough up him and Taijuan for Upton

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Comps

If you just joined us, the original Bill James concept was "which two players could you trade for each other, without affecting either team?"  He used to consider SS's and 2B's as interchangeable for the purposes of that discussion.  You know, like "The most-comparable player to Nick Franklin is actually a teammate, Brad Miller.  And the second-most comparable is another teammate, Kyle Seager."

..........

For the purposes of this section we'd better assume that everybody is a DH and runs the 40-yard dash in 7.0 seconds.

At .265/.333/.459 and with his EYE ratio, Franklin has been ALREADY a swappable hitting comp for Kendrys Morales (.339 OBP, .463 SLG).  At the moment, he's also been loosely comparable to Prince Fielder, Matt Holliday, Mike Napoli and Kyle Seager.  The M's ain't on a winning streak for nuttin', honey.

............

Which also leaves the intriguing question:  will Franklin be any good --- > after he's come out of his first trip 'round, and is no longer purely reactive?  This isn't a Cuban "see ball, hit ball" hitter we're talking about.  This is a thoughtful hitter.

Hold up your hand if you think Nick Franklin is UNLIKELY to become Jimmy Rollins.  Or maybe that's a little modest?

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Trade Market

This winter, Jack Zduriencik will be able to feature Nick Franklin in a deal for anybody who's on the market.  But I'd need to stop and think about whether you'd even do so for Giancarlo Stanton, even 1-for-1.  I'm a position scarcity guy:  a 2B or SS is a whale of a lot easier to build around than a corner outfielder.  Weren't we just talking 70's Dodgers?

Stanton is under club control for two more years, hitting free agency in 2016.  Granted, you'd have the added chance of locking him up.  But what if you wind up on the wrong side of a Hanley Ramirez-for-Josh Beckett deal?  Well.... that wasn't the best example.  You're never going to regret a trade if you're truly happy with what you get back.

Still.  Franklin is under control for THIS year and SIX MORE.  Would you have traded the year-2 Dustin Pedroia for anybody?  Jeter?  If a kid becomes a legit monster 2B/SS, you don't want to have traded him away, especially pre-arb.

But you'd be able to get something awwfffuulllly fancy back.  Set you up that Dodger 4-man All-Star rotation.

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Blog: 

Comments

1

I completely buy the position scarcity argument, I just think it needs to include offensive roles, not just defensive roles. I think having a batter that has to be pitched around, that can hit a home run even when the pitcher hasn't made a mistake, is just as important as having a plus hitter at a defensive position. I'd just as soon build around Miguel Cabrera or Albert Pujols, as I would Derek Jeter or Nomar Garciaparra. I would also love the opportunity to build around Rickey Henderson.
With respect to the M's lineup, I sure like the idea of a RH hitter who's power isn't afraid of Safeco park, or Yellowstone Park for that matter. Who would you rather bank on Dustin Ackley as the back-up plan at 2B with Giancarlo Stanton playing the role of RH thumper or stick with Nick Franklin at 2B and bank on Michael Morse or the equivalent free agent fodder as your signature RH bat?

2
M's Watcher's picture

Franklin is on pace for 26HR/162 games and might get better all the way around. As suggested, his trade value seems to be increasing with each game. But the Mariners have been seeking a big MOTO bat seemingly for an eternity, and are currently renting a couple serviceable ones. Smoak and Zunino might grow into the role, but not yet. None are on the immediate horizon in the minors. Deej in 2015, currently in A-ball? Yeah, we could trade Franklin for a MOTO bat, but we might be better off keeping him. At least we are able to have this conversation, where in the past we had no options.

3

Miller, Seager, Zunino and Franklin are bringing us to the edge of contention. Let's see if Smoak is for real, Ackley can rebound and re-invent, and see what Paxton and Walker can do. We dodged a bullet in the Upton trade. I like the youth movement and would rather watch it play out a little more before we get over clever and make a move we'll later regret. I've seen too many budding Seattle dynasties go phhht due to unforced errors in personnel changes ("We're good with David Bell at 3rd, imagine what Jeff Cirillo at 3rd can do," or "Dennis Johnson is a cancer. Hey, Paul Westphal is a star and a good teammate. Make a trade," or "We can slip Hutch by without franchising him. Nobody pays that much for a right tackle anyway."
I normally trust Z, but the Upton near mistake and Fister fiasco have me worried. Z is at his worst when he's forcing the issue. Let's let this youth movement ride a little longer and let Jack supplement the way he does best - dumpster diving for the RH thumpers. At least till we know what we have.
I know everyone thinks their prospects are better than they are. Fact is, over the past decade, this has actually been the case for us. Our prospects HAVE been better than we thought. Heck, I'll go back to 20 years, and put Varitek and Lowe and everyone we tossed into the Cirillo trade in the mix.
We almost traded Franklin once already. I'm nervous about doing it again.

4
Mesully's picture

Stay the course, keep Nick in a Seattle uniform! Not even for Stanton's 2 years.

5

In this article Kyle Seager isn't in the top 50 in current trade value, and Nick Franklin doesn't even make the Honorable Mentions amongst players like Didi Gregorius (career minor league OPS under .700, couple hundred big-league PAs) and Jed Gyorko (HR power at a glove positon, but more 3B than 2B).
Even if Nick was, I get that GMs might be a little slow to jump on him at his demonstrated current power levels.  Hard to believe he can hit the ball that far, that easily, so they want more of a track record. 
You know who has that record? Kyle Seager. About Seager, DC states:

These guys [Freeman, Gordon and Seager] are very good players who probably would have made the list if they had accumulated their value in a different manner. They’re all valuable assets, but they each play a corner position, and they get a lot of their value from non-HR events. The traditional mindsets about power at the corners is still pervasive in many front offices, and teams are less interested in giving up value for doubles, walks, and defense from a position where they’ve been trained to look for long balls.
Eventually, these predetermined roles for positions will fade away, and players will just be viewed for their overall contribution rather than how well they conform to a mold, but trade value reflects the market as it is, and the market still puts a significant premium on power. Freeman and Seager are young enough to think that perhaps they might develop more as they get older — and to be fair to Seager, he’s already showing more home run ability in the first half of 2013 — but I can’t quite see them getting commanding a king’s ransom with their current set of skills, even as those skills make them very good players.
As I said about Seager a few days ago, he posted one of 13 seasons EVER for a lefty-hitting 3B with 35 doubles and 20 HRs, and he's about to join only Eric Chavez in the next tier ABOVE that this year at 40/25.  There were 8 third basemen who hit more HRs than Kyle last year, and four who have more this year: Longoria, Beltre, Pedro Alvarez and then the greatest hitter in baseball. If "top-5" isn't the proper amount of power for the position, then what is? And who would take Alvarez over Seager? Show of hands.
David Wright, per 162, averages 41 doubles and 26 HRs.  Seager is posting Wright-level power FOR FREE and Cameron thinks it's not enough to get him some decent trade value because he doesn't have enough pop in his bat?
He wrote it last week, so it's not like he wasn't watching this season. Just weird.
Anyway... Now that we've made sure we're "objective" enough in this discussion. Franklin, Miller and Seager are gonna be worth their weight in gold - heck, Adam Dunn's weight in gold - if they keep this up.  Seager already should be worth it, but since apparently he's not we get to keep him and his 5-6 WAR self a while longer.
This is what Jack was talking about when he said nobody valued his prospects correctly this offseason, so he hung on to them.  Who is throwing Franklin, Walker, Pryor, etc at any one player now?  Jack has proven his eye for talent, all these guys are producing, and now the next time somebody tries to get a hundred WAR back for their player he can simply point at the gems in our infield and say, "Look, my farm hands are worth more than you think.  Make me a better offer."
I don't see what the offer is that gets Franklin, Zunino, Miller or Seager outta here now. Not unless Miami changes their minds about Stanton - and maybe not then.  Team chemistry is a big deal. There are gonna be some adjustments to be made by the kids once the league clamps down on them (and believe me, it's starting to try - it's not like we're hiding these guys in the 8 and 9 holes).
But I'm not afraid of those adjustments.  If Franklin comes down to 35 doubles and 15 homers, he's still plus. If Miller only hits .270 that's still a hundred points better than Ryan.  Seager's low projection at this point is that 35/20 that got him 3.5 WAR last year for nothing.
The team is gonna have a LOT of trade value in the next couple of years.  The only problem: nobody else will have enough to send back to make us trade with them.
Seems like a good problem to have. Just have to find a RH hitter or two on the market for mere cash, or lesser prospects. Jack and Tom have proven their minor league skills beyond a shadow of a doubt.  Now Jack has to finish putting this team together.
~G

6
benihana's picture

GMZ faced a market that was leery of his goods precisely because the first wave of prospects struggled so mightily last season. Smoak, Montero and Ackley looked like fools gold. A trio of top 10 (in all of MLB) prospects that were flaming out. Ignore that pesky Seager clearly he's not worth much either (*tongue-firmly-planted-in-cheek).
Lo and behold this season, as the second wave hits, and Franklin, Miller and Zunino make immediate splashes, and wait-a-second, is that really Ackley hitting +.400 since the break? And Smoak showing some real power+obp potential?
The second wave looks so good that they're rubbing off on the first wave...
Now let's talk about that third wave we've got coming.. you think these guys are good? Wait till you see Gohara, Diaz, Pike, Sanchez and Romero, Taylor, Deej and Wilson.
One of the great, great, great things about having success right now, is that it increases the value of the prospects within your pipeline simply by association.
Watch this offseason as the next wave sneaks up into the top 100 lists, pick four of them out and send them to Miami for our MOTO.
- Ben.

7

To arm wrestle other teams into prospect respect.
1. Doug Fister (Top 10 League Pitcher)
2. Brandon Morrow (9.5 K/9 Starter over last 4 seasons)
3. Steve Delebar (12.6 K/9 0.4 HR/9 for Blue Jays)
4. Mike Carp (One of a very few guys in the game this season to have a higher OPS: .990, than the other fishy Mike; Trout, who has a .955 OPS)
5. Matt Tuiasosopo (Currently OPSing .980 for Detroit)
6. Shawn Kelly (13.0 K/9 for Yankees)
And several of those guys were DFAs. Would anybody like to pay proper value for a Mariners' prospect now?

8

First of all if you're a team that needs a 3rd basemen he's your man. How about a left handed hitting 2nd basemen, even better. How many 2nd basemen hit with that kind of power. M's don't need him at 2nd but other teams would love to have him. Cano is about to get $200 million but he's also 31 hitting in a hitters park. Pedroia is 29 and just signed a team friendly 100 million contract. Seager is every bit the player (except for SB's) for pennies on the dollar.

9

Seager's power last year is fine to make him a top-10 3B in the league.  This year it's top 5. At second base? Top 3, behind Uggla and Cano, and Seager's defense makes up for the extra couple of dingers by Uggla. Seager is basically tied with Kipnis in that department.
Funnily enough, Seager's most comparable player in the bigs right now is probably Jason Kipnis, whom we just had the pleasure of watching when Cleveland rolled through/got rolled up.  Kipnis and Seager are both lefties around 5'11, stocky, plus power at 2nd, and both have ~1250 PAs in the bigs.  Seager is 6 months younger. Over those 1200 PAs: 
Kipnis: .270/.350/.440
Seager: .270/.330/.440
Cameron has Kipnis as the #30 most valuable trade piece. IMO, that works for Seager too, because as you said, he started playing 3B for us because of our need and Ackley's (and later Franklin's) place there, not because he couldn't hack it at second base.  His D there is FINE, and anyone trading for him would know that.
I'm just glad that this stockpile of talent is all producing for us.  It may have been desperation that forced Jack to go all in looking for that straight, but he sure seems to have found it.  The kids are proving their worth, and Jack might get to keep his job after all (which means he'll get to keep bringing us all these talented players for a few more years yet).
And while he's doing that, hopefully we'll be winning big.  :-) I care less about the trade value of our big-league pieces and more about the wins they put on the board for us.  I'm completely happy to be under-rated. 9-1 in our last 10 games, with Felix on the mound tonight.  Life is pretty good.
~G

10
GLS's picture

Yeah, I pretty much agree with this word by word.

11
GLS's picture

I assume you understand that this Cameron isn't slighting Seager. His comments clearly indicate that he thinks Seager's actual value is higher than his perceived value by ML front offices, which is what the article is trying to classify.

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