Shout - SammySoso - 1/5/16 10:56am

<p>I'm a displaced Seahawks bandwagon-fan, so I'm always worked about about #Baseball! Until the Steelers lose their rapist QB and animal abuser backup, I'll have a love-hate relationship with my local team... Anyway.</p>
<p>I see a lot of numbers very similar to last year's. Hence your estimation of within 1 win of last year's total of 76? There is enough hope of improvement at key places though to make 75 wins sound low. Makes me wonder how much of a predictor aggregate WAR can be - after all, last year's 76-win team had 14.6 batting/defense WAR and 9.8 pitching WAR, suggesting an immeasurable 6 or so wins? But would I bet the over on 81 wins for this team? Fangraphs has 82.1 and 3 games out of the #Wild card behind the Jays.</p>
<p>I have no argument with your individual estimations, though I would give a little bit of space for improvement from the rotation - particularly Karns and Tiajuan. Just that I'd look at win-prediction as positional WAR improvement over last year's totals, which is at least 4 wins. And now I don't feel as rosy as I thought I did yesterday!</p>