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POTD Ramon Flores, OF

M's hoping for a 2nd go-round at a Chris Snelling

flores.jpg

Ramon Flores

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To start with, here's the preferred metaphor for any SEA-NYY trade.  Flores throws Ackley out at the plate.  As y'know, we live to serve.

Assuming that Austin Jackson is gone after the year, then were left with Brad Miller or ???.  We like Miller, but t's a GM's job to avoid ???, and now we've got Ramon Flores as the CF candidate of choice going into 2016.  Of course, Flores has played more LF than CF, but hey.  You could say that about Ketel Marte and Miller his ownself.  Flores is 5' 10", 180 lbs. or so, and they've got the winter leagues.

Flores' calling card is --- > a HIT tool that ranked, at 'press time', #6 in the minors for contact percentage (94%).  He's patient "to a fault," as was John Olerud, with swing % overall near the bottom of pro baseball.

He's got a short stroke and KBIZLT lefty swing that stays inside the baseball for crisp line drives and hot-shot grounders.  His first major league hit is a perfect example.

With this swing, he clocks into the Mainframe as --- > exactly what people thought Kyle Seager was GOING to be, a .270 hitter with plenty of walks but ... as to the power?  "I don' sweat you," sez Corey Kluber.  Or Roberto Hernandez, for that matter.

.....

Yankee$ fans, typically, sell this as "our #4 AAA outfielder and our #5 AAA reliever" for a beard that has hit .300/.400/.500 in Yankee.  Well, most of us are down with the second half of that pap.  Had Dustin Ackley come up with (let's say) the Boston Red Sox, none of us would be surprised if he'd been on an All-Star game or two.

But, as Jeff Sullivan put it, we are at "addition by subtraction" point with Ackley.  Even when he got hot around the first of July, as he always does, management pulled a sour face and made him watch the rest of 'em play anyhow.  As Dr. D puts it, it coulda been that Ackley didn't eggsackly jump on the Edgar bandwagon.  If not, hey, Edgar's got a culture to cultivate around here.

.....

Chris Mitchell of Fangraphs has his own "KATOH" system for projecting minor leaguers, and it had Ramon Flores as the #19 prospect in baseball entering the season.  That's as opposed to the #19 prospect in the Yankee$ own system, and maybe about the #350 prospect overall.  Mitchell is working the edges of the plate with a theory that says the HIT tool -- i.e. contact ability -- correlates with a fast transition to the majors.  Dr. D is working with a theory that says "if you stay inside the ball, you'll get your hits."

He's not fast on the bases -- think 5-10 SB's a year -- so this all leaves him somewhat in the Adam Eaton / Desmond Jennings template.  Shooting at a .260/.320/.380 slash line when things go wrong, or .300/.360/.420 if they break right.  In a neutral park.  That's 1.0 to 3.0 WAR per season, right where Mitchell's projections have him -- at 8.1 WAR over the next 4 years.

Then again, Austin Jackson's recent surge has left him at .255/.300/.375 in Safeco, so you can see why Flores would come into 2016 camp with a job to lose in CF.

Obviously, there's a downside:  #4 outfielder, and in this case there's a good what ... 60%, 70% chance that he'll wind up there.  If you hear that this is his ceiling, though, remember what Kyle Seager's ceiling was supposed to be.  Flores' stroke is fairly similar, and he's had plenty of time at AAA to jell.  Hope the M's have him up sooner than later.

If you're in the mood to feel dreamy, Dr. D doesn't see any reason that Flores couldn't aim at a Brett Gardner career.  Gardner hit a good steady 3-8 homers his first four years.  But he kept the walks way up there, gradually gained power, played several outfield spots and at age 32 is a minor star.

......

Flores has a rep as an "under-the-radar" prospect.  D-o-Vision translation:  he can play in the big leagues, but does nothing to blow your skirt up.  As McClendon put it, "he can do a lot of things."

Here he is doing one thing:  coming straight in a ball, toughest play, with good body control.

Here is is doing another thing:  Getting a great angle on the ball, and impressing the Stats Casters.

Here he is doing three things:  knocking in the 7th, 8th, and 9th runs off a 95 jam pitch for a walk-off in ST.

Here is the MLB.com prospects blurb on him.  This is the same prose they used to write for Chris Snelling.

I like 'im,

Dr D

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