Add new comment

Dr. D's Lab Notes (M's 2, Astros 6)

Two Thousand Ways It Won't Work, dept.

legal.png

legal pad Mariners

.

Success in the Sunday experiment would have cut deficit to -6.5 games behind the Astros.  Instead we are now -8.5.  On the plus side, we could have been down -12.5.  The 1995 miracle run that saved baseball was staged from -13.0 games back and was an electrical miracle unlikely to recur.  

Two thousand mineral compounds have been attempted in finding the filament to light up the corpse.  As Dr. Edison said, that is 2,000 filaments that we now know to be useless.  Of course, this remark came from a mind so insane that it would publicly execute giant elephants via 6,600 volts of alternating current.  Cannot predict whether my own enthusiasm for baseball will withstand similar treatment.

....

Record is 8-7 over last two weeks plus.  Only feels like 2-13.  Progress is documented but painful.  Unfortunately, I have nothing better to do with my life than to continue the experiments.

Take heart from Dr. Cobain's first great experiment.  "About a Girl," he said.  However, females are far less confusing branch of science than reanimation of local ballclub.  Dr. Cobain's frustration and elation over his baseball/female relationships provide comfort in darkest hours.

I need an easy friend
I do, with a concession fee to lend
I don't think we fit this shoe
I do, won't you have a clue
You'll take advantage while
You hang me out to dry
But I must see you every night
Free
I'm standing in your line
I'll take this many times
We do hate the numbers too
We do keep our dates with you
I'll take advantage while
You hang me out to dry
But I can't see you every night
Free

.....

VINCENT VELASQUEZ.  Have never seen a starting pitcher KO'ed after 3.1 IP having allowed only one run.  Still less to have seen the home team then "locked down" for 2 total runs in the game subsequently.

The entire 6-2 experience was absolutely surreal.  This is the case even relative to my own life itself, which the mob outside my lab incorrectly considers to be surreal.

Goes to Dr. James' theory that the Astros' lab is managed by geniuses.  Velasquez, having thrown >40 pitches in the first inning several of which were ripoffs via the home plate umpire, then amazingly threw a 97-MPH fastball by Brad Miller to end the inning.  And competed brilliantly for the rest of his pitch count.  Makeup off the charts.

.....

J.A. HAPP.  The Mariners have three (3) of five (5) starting pitchers with "minus" change speed games.  Despite this they pitch with fair effectiveness.  Lack of change speed threat places undue pressure (circa 1,200 PSI) on pitch location and quality.  However, pitcher arsenals withstand this pressure with few signs of rupture.  Another physical oddity about the 2015 experiments.

Happ has the body language of Cliff Lee.  He is relaxed yet aggressive, powerful yet corpse-loose in deceleration.  A few left hand pitchers automatically begin the game "in a rocking chair" -- Lee, Hamels, Oakland pitchers -- and J.A. Happ is one of them.  Even when behind on the scoreboard his demeanour is that of Dr. Einstein.  Rarely extends the tongue jocularly, however.

Happ's control ratio of 61/20 is very similar to the 68/19 ratio during his surprising 2H 2014.  Also he performs in an environment conducive to his success.  If the Mariners could obtain four (4) starting pitchers who outperform him, this would be similar to the 2001 experiments that produced 116 victories (Paul Abbott was the #5 pitcher).  Very few clubs have five positive starting pitchers without contending; fewer still fail to contend with five SP's together with an average offense.  Quality #4-5 starting pitchers have a tendency to weigh heavily against weak opposition during a long season.

....

EDGAR MARTINEZ.  Has, in only two games, taught his teammates how to take long, long looks at pitches before swinging.  Results documented in BB totals and pitch counts.

The phenomenon is somewhat paranormal, since his teammates have not yet begun listening to him, and since the phenomenon extends to approximately 2-3 games before his arrival.  For some 3-5 games, the Mariners have been consistently "hunting" pitches according to their pregame plans.  

Particularly notable in this regard are Mark Trumbo, Austin Jackson and Nelson Cruz.  Relative to their own standards, Brad Miller and Mike Zunino are also showing premature manifestations of star quality pitch selection.

Edgar's presence will surely accelerate this process.

....

TAIJUAN WALKER.  Most recently yielded 11 strikeouts, 0 walks, and 2 homers in a single game.  (Also known as "Here It Is, Hit It" and a/k/a Curt Schilling Located Fastball Syndrome.)  After game, field manager gushed "Solo homers don't hurt you.  They really don't."

Enemy homers do in fact hurt me, but Walker's role is secure under the circumstances.  Also, his fastball is improving (in velocity and location) on game-by-game basis.  Schilling manifestation (ca. 1994) emerges as possibility.

Yellow pad above is --- > corrupted by final headless-man doodling, made not by Dr. D but by Taijuan Walker, with reference to manager who removed him from game after 94 pitches.

....

GAME BROADCAST.  Am not predisposed to affinity for Aaron whathisname.  That said, the young man has the following qualities:

  • Constantly peppers the game with interesting saber ("Kykel is the most-shifted-behind SP in ML")
  • Very likeable person
  • Not too wordy; Costas-like cadence and density
  • Smoothness approaches Scully vintage
  • Conducts broadcast as Q-and-A with major leaguer sitting next to him (exaggerated deferentiality produces wry smile)
  • Understated style moves the picture on the TV screen to the front (contrast Neihaus, Sims, etc)
  • Authentic joy for baseball radiates

Objectively speaking, broadcast audience is fortunate to have him.  Subjectively speaking, why is Jeff Sullivan not performing this function.

.

Also on the broadcast, they made a comment to the effect of "Pitcher wins and losses Is an Extinct Stat," following with remarks about Felix' 20-win season not two minutes later.

Pitcher wins and losses have value despite "having noise," as team wins and losses have value despite "having noise."  The Mariners' recent 8-7 record is not "predictive" but it is of interest to those monitoring the process.  Results need not be isolated predictive factors in order to have interest.  

Felix' estimated chance of 20 wins:  thirty percent.  Baseball Prospectus' estimated playoff odds for Mariners:  14%.

Must remember to preorder olanzapine,

Dr. Detecto

Tags: 
Blog: 
Postgame
Interest categories: 
Interest locations: 

Filtered HTML

  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd><p><br>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

Plain text

  • No HTML tags allowed.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

shout_filter

  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.