NBA Pennant-Race Translation
Q. Is it okay to keep rooting for the 2009 Mariners to close the gap?
A. I certainly am. I don't believe the M's are out of it. They've got little margin for error now, of course.
We were intrigued by Crusty Juggler's quote of Jason Churchill, to wit "Churchill wrote another reply that the names he's heard so far are not names a selling team would get. In a nutshell, that Zduriencik is BUYING and not selling."
Honestly, I don't get the rush to quit. :- ) It reminds me a little bit of being on campus and listening to the students demanding (from everybody!) a formal statement that America is a pox on humanity.
I know. The Great-Satan-food-fight is not the most proportional, or pleasant, analogy. The point is, what's the payoff? Why spend your energy on extracting a statement that we're all losers?
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Q. Why resign? Because, Sherlock, if we can't win it, we've got to position ourselves for later.
A. Zduriencik himself, when quoted, says that his goal is to get better now AND later.
How? Again, every roto champ knows: you simply trade players you don't like for players that you do like.
If Jack Zduriencik doesn't care for Clement and Morrow, and trades them for (say) Brignac and Kazmir in a package, then in his mind he HAS positioned for 2010 and 2011 -- and very well might make the 2009 M's better too.
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Why the assumption that you can't re-load on the fly -- while competing? Boston and the Angels do it all the time.
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Look. If you can really trade Jarrod Washburn for Reid Brignac, then do it. We all agree on that. What we don't agree on is quitting just for the sake of issuing a statement.
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Q. But (sob) Baseball Prospectus has us at -4% to win the division.
A. That formula assumes that you are playing with Strat-O-Matic cards.
Granted, if this season were a computer sim, the year would be over. Real baseball teams are not computer sims!
GET THIS POINT STRAIGHT. The "2% chance to win the division" is assuming DICE ROLLS on the pitcher-batter matchups. Of course you're going to see 4,000 AB's smooth out and leave the #2 team behind.
REAL teams GET hot and cold. They get injuries. The Angels could very easily hit a slump, and a long one. That's not a reach; it's life.
The blog-o-sphere takes those Strat-O-Matic dice-roll sims wayyyyyyy too seriously. 4,000 dice rolls, vs. the 25-man clubhouse at Safeco, now THAT is apples and oranges, baby.
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Again, you're running behind the leader in a X-country race, your job is to give him a chance to falter.
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Q. What's D-O-V's basketball "translation" on July 29?
A. Well, 60 games to go, that's easy enough: 6 minutes left in the third quarter. (37.5% of the contest left.)
-7.5 down .... I think it's pretty reasonable to just double the GB and equate it to points in basketball. You're down 15 points in the NBA with 6:00 3Q.
I wouldn't triple it. That would mean that the 1995 M's came from 35 points down, right? :- )
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Q. Sigh. OK, gimme an example then.
A. The last time a baseball team blew a 7-game lead was ... 2007. SEPTEMBER '07, as in. (Unless I forgot somebody from 2008, which I mighta.)
Hey, the Mets lost five in a row and boom. Now we're playing a weekend series for the lead. You feel me?
Here's a cool article on teams losing leads. These situations DWARF the situation the M's are in, of course.
The Angels blowing +7 in July would not be historic. Blowing a +7 lead in July isn't even notable. It's probably occurred several times recently and we don't even remember them.
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Q. What's it gonna take?
A. A week of lousy play by the Angels.
They're on streaks of 13-3 and 23-8. The M's are about where they've always been -- a handful of games over .500. It ain't that the M's got lousy; the Angels are demoralizing us.
Let's hope that the Mariners' players have more heart than we do. :- ) If Wok keeps them at it, we're a small Angels slump from sitting up again.
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Q. How many games left with the Angels?
A. Six games remain between the Mariners and Angels in 2009. A home-and-home* in early September. You gotta be within five games when the Angels come in on August 31.
Then, you go even 4-2, you're within three games with 17 to play. That's down to the wire. Or if you go 5-1, then...
Properly timed, Felix and Bedard could start four of the six (Aug 31-Sept 10 and Sept 2-Sept 8).
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Cheers,
Dr D