Ian Snell's Velo Crash, Aug 22
=== James Hetfield Nothing Else Matters, Dept. ===
We had plenty of shtick on Ian's first outing for the M's. None of it is worth much, neither (a) in terms of understanding him, nor (b) in terms of predicting him, until this (c) Brooks Baseball graph is explained.
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.I wish we could have seen pitch 2,000 on this graph, thrown at -4 mph, so that we could have witnessed a wormhole / time travel effect on live TV.
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=== And ... Just a Leeeeeetle Amp'ed There, Keeeed? ===
So there were two games: the one before the velo crash, and the one after. We won't even talk about the second game, because we got no clue.
The first game, innings 1-4 or so, Snell was wayyyyyyyyyyy overthrowing early, causing:
1) His fastball to ride wildly high and outside to LHB's (his wild overthrows were worse than RRS' first game)
2) His breaking stuff to constantly miss the strike zone
And as a result, he threw more balls than strikes in innings 2-3-4 combined. That's bad.
When you're working with 1 pitch -- and you can't control IT -- that's called having your B game, I think.
He still held the Rangers to three hits and two runs on the night. Thanks a little bit to bad strike zone umping. (Check the strikes and balls missed in the strike zone scatterchart at Brooks.)
Holding the Rangers to 3 hits and 2 runs in 6 innings, on a hot night in Texas, that's a good night for Felix and Bedard. Utterly amazing that he did it the way he did (first half, one pitch no command; second half, Twilight Zone noodle arm).
It's a testimony to the life on his FB and his moving the ball around the zone. Am impressed with his FB generally. You should be, too, because he had nothing else the first several innings, and had a 1-hitter going in Tejas.
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Ryan Rowland-Smith had precisely the same thing happen: sick of the minors, sick of disappointments, finally The Big Break, he got too amp'ed in his first start and overthrew.
RRS also missed many pitches way wild, and lost velo, in game #1. Then, of course, he was fabulous in game 2 -- strong, yet not over-amped.
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=== First Half of the Game ===
Snell's FB was 91-95 with good late life. 50% of the time well-located, but much of the time way overthrown and way wild.
Our pregame key: the lad has a "shape" that LH's will crush. Sure enough, first inning, some LHB got a 3-1 pitch, and Snell challenged. Upper deck job.
When Ian Snell falls behind LH's, he must do anything, everything, or nothing, except challenge any LH hitter who can clear the infield on a fly ball.
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His vaunted slider was more of an 80 curveball straight down. He didn't show the great slider. That's called "having your B game."
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=== Second Half of the Game ===
I absolutely could not believe what I was seeing. ...His breaking pitches, about inning 5, started hitting the mark every blinkin' time (e.g. 9 of 11 pitches for strikes inning 5, and 10 of 15 more in inning 6).
But the fastball suddenly dropped off to 86 mph!
What do you even make of that? What if Felix suddenly started reaching back and ... throwing 86?
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Wakamatsu yanked him, and the game line showed 84 (?) pitches on the night. That's because he was aware of the above graph, in-game.
Standing O for our brainy new skip.
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=== How Scared, Doc? ===
Not very.
I mean, it always COULD be he ripped a ligament or something, but... Ian was throwing nice and easy, beautiful mechanics, throwing tons of spinning pitches; he didn't LOOK uncomfortable.
It's a guess only, but I'm wondering if the heat and humidity didn't leave him getting sick to his stomach or something.
Snell has been throwing 6 innings in the minors, so ... :shrug:
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First guy, though, who logs in with the explanation for the velo crash, gets flowers from me.
Cheers,
Dr D