BOR: First 5%, Exec Sum 2
.
The Washburn Factor looks a bit worse than I thought it would. Of the six losses:
- April 6: Washburn = no difference
- April 7: Washburn = 70% chance of winning (RRS)
- April 8: Washburn = 20% chance of winning, that being a 50% chance of winning a lockdown start (Fister)
- April 9: Washburn = 40% chance of winning, that being a 50% chance of winning a quality start (Vargas)
- April 11: Washburn = 30% chance of winning, with the entire game an alternate reality (Snell)
- April 12: Washburn = 15% chance of winning, that being a 40% chance of winning a lockdown start (RRS)
There is the question as to which of these four BOR's you'd have put Washburn in there for. Had it been RRS, you'd probably have won at least one of his two games, and had a slim chance of winning both.
Had it been Snell, you'd have had an even chance of winning the second start, but none of winning the first.
Had it been Fister, you'd have had about a 1/4 chance of winning, with our offense shut down that day (and Washburn wouldn't have gotten hosed by the ump).
Had it been Vargas, in the 6-2 loss at Texas, you'd have had a good shot of winning the game, based on getting the ball to your bullpen in a tight game.
.
=== Looking Backward ===
Washburn wasn't going to be put in there for RRS or Snell. He'd have been in there for Vargas or Fister, so the best you can say is that Washburn might very possibly have us at 3-5 instead of 2-6.
Looking at yesterday, looking at the rear-view mirror, Washburn's impact would have been about, oh, 0.3 wins so far. You'd have only had him for one start thus far, and the odds are >50% that Wash wouldn't have turned that one game around.
And even Dr. D, who is very into ki in the clubhouse, does not look at these eight games and see any critical Washburn win that would have perked up the offense. I mean, Felix won* Saturday and then the M's lost the next two games horribly.
So let's be clear that Wash has not been the reason for the 2-6 start. It's the offense, and the injuries to Lee and Bedard, that have cost us the most SO far.
.
=== Looking Forward ===
Looking at tomorrow, going down the list of the six BOR starts with more BB's than K's, and some decidedly wobbly-looking pitching from ALL FOUR guys ... the anti-Washburn decision looks like it's going to cost this ballclub a whale of a lot.
Going with four question marks hasn't cost us a ton so far. But right now, it looks like it's blinkin' well going to.
.
=== Dr's R/X ===
Let's split this out.
.
My $0.25,
Dr D