Muscle - I loooov eeeet (2010 vs 2011 vs 2012)
Q. Shouldn't the M's be gearing up for the future?
A. The M's have many exciting position players on the farm. None of them play first base!
Alex Liddi, Carlos Triunfel, Dustin Ackley, Michael Saunders, Adam Moore ... and perhaps even Greg Halman, Matt Mangini and Dennis Raben could conceivably help the Mariners in 2012 or even in 2011.
If Zduriencik thought he had a Ryan Braun to play 1B (y'know) then he would do that. But the prospects are 2B, 3B, and outfield.
So you've got to get your #3-#4 hitters somewhere. Branyan could be part of a surprise playoff team in 2011.
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Q. Like what?
A. In 2011, let's say you move in Ackley at 2B, trade Lopez, and move Figgins to 3B. You've got one more position player you can work in, right? Is it really going to be your first baseman?
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Q. How about Mike Carp?
A. If you have no other options, fine.
Are you planning on winning your next pennant with Mike Carp? That is the guy of whom you say, if he's your 1B, you're not planning on storming the keep.
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Q. What is the value of a winning surge in 2010?
A. What is the value of (say) 2.2m in attendance vs 1.7m in attendance?
Suppose that Zduriencik gets the M's on a roll, and the fans are encouraged ... and the owners permit him $5m or $10m more in the 2011 budget because of a stronger 2010 season?
Then the M's in effect gained a $5m or $10m player in the Carrera-Branyan trade, right?
Or supposing that a July surge ultimately results in a Cliff Lee re-signing? (Erik Bedard was written much farther off the page than Lee is right now.)
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Q. Could Branyan help the M's win in 2011?
A. Of course he could; don't be silly.
Stars and Scrubs teams aren't absolute in their structuring. After they have rostered the Felixes, Lees, Bedards and Ichiros ... with the Saunderses, Fisters, Ackleys, Pinedas and Vargases, they fill out the roster with some cost-efficient Civics.
Billy Beane has always had his share of Mark Kotsays and Scott Hattebergs. In fact, Beane himself would love to have Russell Branyan specifically.
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How do Tampa's, Texas' and 1B's compare to Branyan's established 125 OPS+? Tampa has Pena at a 97 OPS+ ... the Rangers have Smoak at 96 ... the Angels had Morales around 125+. Hey, there are the Teixeiras, Youkilises, Morneaus, and Cabreras to be sure .... but if you want a Pena - Morales level 1B, Russell Branyan is going to match up with them a lot better than Casey Kotchman is.
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Branyan could be a wonderful Civic add for 2011. He's liable to give you a 120-130 OPS+, or better, and $10-15m in bases gained, for that $5m bucks.
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Q. Easy Save time at SSI? Three run lead, nobody on.
A. The 2011 M's needed to add two MOTO hitters. They mighta just added one, free.
And, I flat enjoy watching Russ Branyan hit balls 100 feet high and 400 feet long. Bring it on, babe. I'm psyched.
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Love the deal,
Dr D