POTD Hiroyuki Nakajima - 5-year scan with Nick Franklin
Dr. D counts at least six (6) important ideas in G-Money's post on Hiroyuki Nakajima. Strung like pearls on an 18K gold microchain, they dangle a persuasive case against the idea of [M's + Nakajima].
Actually, G-Money doesn't intend to nix Nakajima, and states the conditions under which he thinks Nakajima could be a good move. But the SLOPS side of G-Money's argument is so convincing, that we've got to mosh off it:
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In a vacuum I'm interested in replacing our ridiculously pitiful SS combo with even a league-average SS. Nakajima is a decent 2B/SS and we are very familiar with the trials of bringing Japanese players over, so landing here should be simpler for him and for us.
In practice, since it's been fairly well shown that we cannot ever trade a Japanese player once they are on our team or reduce their pay in any way and must hope for a face-saving retirement back to Japan rather than dismiss any of them...
A chilling thought, that.
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Nick Franklin isn't a given, but he is one of minor league baseball's brightest stars, and his ceiling is "Hall of Famer." The downside scenario is all too easy to visualize: grab Carlos Silva or Miguel Batista, and pass on Tim Lincecum.
If Nakajima comes to Seattle, his leaving Seattle won't have anything to do with Zduriencik's projection of WAR, Nick Franklin's MLE, or anything else.
Nakajima's exit from Seattle would be 100.00% decided by an owner who has never seen a Mariners game, and who apparently doesn't care whether they win.
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It would be simply feebleminded to bring in a +2.0 WAR Japanese player who blocked Ackley or Smoak. You wouldn't consider it for a nanosecond. Then why consider it with respect to Franklin?
Farsighted to consider the exit of the player along with his entry. Officer thinking, mate.
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SLOPS: The only thing we would add -- and it's not "slops"; that's just a little readability shtick ...
... is that if Nick Franklin goes ahead and slugs .550 in 2011, and .600+ in 2012, that he's going to be in the M's starting lineup.
Nakajima might play 3B -- or Franklin might play 3B -- or Dustin Ackley might move to CF/LF and Franklin to 2B -- or any number of things.
Nakajima playing +20 runs baseball at short, and Nick Franklin is a top-10-in-baseball spect, they'll figure out a lineup.
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As well, there is a difference between Ackley and Smoak, who have crunched AAA pitching, and Nick Franklin, who has yet to even attempt the high minors.
Into the bargain, you've got the fact that Franklin has some possibility of needing to move off short.
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STOPS: All things considered: as powerful as G's argument is, I suppose that if you like Nakajima, you don't hold up on him because of a low-minors shortstop.
But that point about un-graceful NPB exits is enough to make you run screaming into the night...
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