POTD Justin Upton - Trade Market
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Q. So .... Ackley, Smoak, and Pineda for Upton?
A. Dustin Ackley hits .300 in his rookie year and everybody agrees that he is then worth more than Upton, correct?
Six, six-and-a-half years of club controls?
I'm not giving you Dustin Ackley for Justin Upton's 5/$50M contract. No sale.
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Q. Michael Pineda for Upton?
A. Definitely, since Pineda comes with health questions.
Upton, and his 5/$50 contract, are worth ten million a year net to me ...and Pineda's chance of doing that, five years in a row, are
Pineda and any handful of surplus prospects -- that includes valuable guys like Johermyn Chavez, Mauricio Robles, etc. -- and sure, Justin Upton joins Team BABVA.
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Q. Does SSI predict that the Mariners will be in the hunt?
A. I hope not. Towers is talking about three ML-ready blue-chippers, and lots more besides. No sale, ka.... chunk.
Capt Jack has been consistent about LH power, about OBP, and about position scarcity.
Remember Jason Bay? The righty Bay has a lifetime OPS+ of 130 -- about what we hope for from Upton -- and Bay has lots of walks.
Bay was begging to come to Seattle, and Zduriencik was noticeably lukewarm. The age factored, but it was also combination of Bay's being right-handed (Z offered six guys for AGone) and Bay's playing a stupid position.
Remember, Upton occupies your 4th and last OF/1B slot.
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Even if Towers thought that Upton was a match for Ackley or Smoak, I'd be surprised if Capt Jack would consider that. Remember, Smoak and Ackley are his babies, his pride and joy. Those are the two kids who are going to validate Jack Zduriencik's one gig as GM.
Ackley and Smoak stay. If only for personal reasons, it says here.
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Q. How does SSI rate itself on the trade predictions lately?
A. We modestly rate ourselves as being on a roll. ;- )
Search the trade predictions on Cliff Lee, for example -- especially back to May and June -- and we think you'll find that Dr. D zigged against the zag and called Capt Jack's monster haul. Sell the sizzle, not the steak.
Back during the Bedard rumor wildfire, the consensus was first, that the M's didn't have the pieces, and afterward, that the M's had bid against themselves. Nada, said SSI, taking the M's chances seriously from the get-go and later pointing out the Mets' and Dodgers' and Reds' massive offers for Bedard.
We'll stack up our trade predictions against the next blog, I s'pose.
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Q. Dr's Prognosis?
A. Dr. D believes that Towers' haul will be a good bit shy of the predictions, and of the asking price. SSI says that Upton's real-world value is being overstated. Considerably. Lee had the sizzle; I don't think Upton does. Upton has 171 strikeouts a year and he has his brother B.J.
But, of course, Upton will bring back plenty.
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Subtract Ackley and Smoak from the equation, and I don't see three Mariners that Towers would want to build around in 2011-12. Could be wrong.
If Jack pulls off a masterpiece again, Michael Pineda and ? for Justin Upton, I'll be psyched. Who knows - Upton could go 50-50 for us. It would be fun to find out.
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For the rest of it: I don't need Justin Upton as much as I did in 2008. I've got Dustin Ackley and Justin Smoak and with this farm system, I like keeping my last Yahtzee slot in the OF, too.
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Cheerio,
Dr D