State of Erik Bedard, 5.3.11 (part one)
Q. Any Poli Sci 101, 102 prereq's to this class, Dr?
A. Two. First one, our April 10th chalk talk after Erikkk got splattered for six (mostly) lucky runs.
The consensus elsewhere was that Erikkk had terrible stuff, and was done. Our two-parter gave the specifics as to why that was in error.
Second prereq: our April 28th syllabus which discussed the particular pitch on which Erik Bedard returned to stardom.
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Q. Okay. What's the bottom line on his May 3rd start against Texas?
A. His curve is all the way back; his fastball is pretty much back except for location; he's now got the moving parts in place and is some fine-tuning away from going on a glorious W bender.
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Q. His fastball's back? I always hear that he's at least 2-3 mph down from his big years. And that this is why he's no good any more.
A. Again Brooks' facts contradict the cyber-myth: Bedard averaged 90.6 mph on Tuesday. The reality is that Bedard averaged 90.9 to 91.6 mph in his best years.
A variation of 0.3 to 1.0 mph is not a root cause of ... anything. He fanned 8 men per game in 2008, averaging 90.9. When you factor in natural April velo buildup, Erik Bedard's velocity isn't down at all.
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Q. Okay, the consensus is off track. Then what's SSI's take on Bedard's FB right now?
A. All this refers to the May 3 fastball specifically:
- In the 7th inning, his readings were 91-91-92-91-91 (SUPER COOL)
- Early, his FB mechanics were fairly stiff
- Late, his FB mechanics were only a tadbit stiff
- His command is improving but IS NOT THERE YET
The one worry that I had was that his velo would drop off after 70 pitches. It does not, not at all. That is just awesome, baby.
Most of his FB's aren't located with precision, which is why the K rate is down.
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Q. How's the curve?
A. Sick.
We explained how it came back on the Austin Jackson pitch in Detroit. From pitch one Tuesday, he picked up right where he left off. We'll take that to mean, he's in the clear.
In fact Pitch F/X had his break at 16, 17 inches at times ... with F/X (movement compared to vacuum) routinely at 15 inches!
It's a huge break with late bite, just like of old.
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Q. Does he throw too many?
A. Some old-schoolers will complain that he's throwing too few fastballs.
They overlook the fact that in Bedard's biggest season, 2007, his FB% was super low. Bedard throws few fastballs when his curve is untouchable.
In 2007, Bedard threw only 57% fastballs ... struck out 11 men per game and walked 2+. When you got a curve like that, man....
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