MOTO Prospects Watch: Mike Carp, LF
In Carp's first two games back, he's 4-for-10 with zero strikeouts and two aggressive, confident plays in left field. He's got two doubles, two singles and of his six outs, several have been unlucky.
He's got a Hideki Matsui-style balance at the plate, has a leg kick and a massive torque going, and he's spraying the ball to left, right and center. He's got a tight strike zone and, oddly for a power hitter, is staying inside the ball -- taking pitches on the inner half and hitting them hard the other way.
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=== July 20, 2011 ===
FIRST UPS. After the M's loaded the bases nobody out, Brandon Morrow suddenly decided to unleash a heavy barrage of impossible pitches. Morrow detonated Smoak and Kennedy (!) on AB's in which they had no chance.
Morrow quickly pounced on Carp, too, for a 1-and-2 count on two vicious sliders.
However, on pitch four, Morrow took the slider in just a bit more, precisely the pitch on which Justin Smoak was blown up, nine pitches earlier. Carp, in sharp contrast, held up easily and the count was 2-2.
Morrow came too far in with a 98 mph (!) fastball and again Carp held up easily. Full count.
On 3-2, Morrow again went to his Pineda-class cutter/slider, in on the hands, but Carp wasn't jumpy after the 98 fastball. He got a good look at the pitch, hit the inside half of the ball, and hit a medium liner at the SS's feet. His BABIP on that type of ball is .500, maybe .600, but this was one of the 40%'s. Out 6-3.
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SECOND AB. On an 0-1 pitch, Morrow came hard into the hands with a 93 mph "exploding" fastball. Carp again pounded the inside half of the ball, this time to straightaway LF, almost into the corner.
Snider ran up against the fence and just flagged it down. Again: gimme 100 outfield flies hit like that and I'll give you back 30, 40 hits -- most of them doubles and homers.
These are two failures in the box score. They most definitely are not failures in the video room.
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THIRD AB. Morrow sets Carp up with two FB's outside the black, one of which the ump blows, so it's 1-1. Morrow then pulls the string on soft stuff away, which Carp takes the other way, for maybe a .300 BABIP grounder to SS. Out again.
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FOURTH AB. On the first pitch Francisco hits the inside black with a 94 fastball.
Carp kicks the leg, uncorks the bat and screams a line-drive one-hopper two steps to Adam Lind's left. He can't get to it. A Carlos Peguero single.
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=== July 19, 2011 ===
As you mighta heard, Carp had three hits -- a single and two doubles.
As you might not'a heard, Carp's first double was to LEFT field, off a LEFT hand pitcher, and his second double was to center. He had another fly ball to CF, and he smoked an outside slider up the middle for his third hit..
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=== Jay Buhner "Let the Game Come To You" Dept. ===
We talk a lot about hitting a 3-iron off the first tee, and only going to the driver after you're rolling that day. Carp has come up to Seattle with the idea of hitting the ball hard, to wherever it's pitched. This will shortly lead to his hitting the ball not only hard but also far, over the fence.
Right now he's the Anti-Smoak; Justin got excited about his earlier hot roll and got himself royally fouled up. Perhaps watching Mike Carp -- a fairly similar baseball player -- will groove Smoak back in.
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=== Dr's Prognosis: Rauuuul-age Ahead ===
It was understandable, but unfortunate, that Wedge got so mesmerized by Carlos Peguero's physical tools. Mike Carp might have been ready to go by now, or that much more probable to start the season with a bang, in March 2011...
Carp has 50 homers in his last 176 games at Cheney, has nearly 300 games logged at the AAA level, and is a whale of a great bet to fill the Raul Ibanez roll call made by Spectator and Moe. Carp doesn't have Rauuuuuuul's topspin, but you could find a dozen other things they have in common, starting with body type, swing type, EYE, ISO and age-arc...
"Baseball organizations pay entirely too much attention to what their scouts are telling them, and entirely too little attention to how their ballplayers have performed." -- Bill James
Paraphrase this for Wedge: some managers pay entirely too much attention to what their eyes are telling them...
He shares this, and many, talents with Lou Piniella. Eric Wedge is a great technical baseball coach, and I mean a great one. I do wish he were just a skosh more sabermetric ... not in his mind, but in his heart. It's not that he wouldn't understand RC/27 if you brought it up. It's that his dazzling eye for the on-field game appears to seduce him, occasionally, into under-emphasizing past performance.
The M's chased Carlos Peguero's potential energy even while Mike Carp was delivering kinetic energy. Ah, well. Better late than never.
I'm going to have a lot of fun watching LF these last 60 games. I bet you Mike Carp can hit in the big leagues.
BABVA,
Dr D