POTD Jaso - hitting template
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=== John Jaso Hitter Family ===
If you ain't in the mood to deal, skip this post. Hit the other blogs with Dr. D's blessing. You don't want him spitting on your euphoria here.
Good ol' Big Blog used my beloved "Hitter Family" approach to triangulate Jaso neatly. They selected three very fundamental criteria, too. Beautiful!
Gimme a Red Robin "Happy Happy Birthday" clap and song. If our ... er, if Bill James' ... "Pitcher-Hitter Family" approach proliferates into a stock approach, baseball understanding will be the better for it. We say that in all humilty. On James' behalf. ::ahem:: ::scratches mustache awkwardly::
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Remember that the Pitcher / Hitter Family sort is a Level 101 Scan. After you decide that Casper Wells is somewhat like Richie Sexson, you then go to Level 201, which is to ask what the deltas are between your current guy and his template "friends."
Wells isn't Sexson. Sexson was an outstanding ML player at a very young age. Wells isn't as good. That has to be weighed carefully.
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As well, the template stands or falls with a super-careful selection of defining attributes, and the truly comparable players have to be included in that capture. Here's where SSI would have an add to the "John Jaso Family" ....
| Swing % | High BB rate |
| Contact % | Low K rate |
| ISO | Low-moderate power (static baseball swing) |
| SLOWFOOTED | Goes to issue of BABIP |
| LH | Goes to issue of general swing shape |
Those last two lines are mine, and IMHO they can't be left off.
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=== SSI Interpretations, Dept. ===
In my opinion, Casey Kotchman is very comparable to John Jaso offensively, and Denard Span is not. The retiring John Olerud, after he was 49 years old, is comparable; Scott Podsendnik, with 60 SB's, is not. Scott Hatteberg is like John Jaso; Joe Mauer is not.
See, Joe Mauer had a couple of seasons where his ISO happened to be under .140, but ... Joe Mauer can hit the ball hard. It is a defining characteristic of John Jaso, and Casey Kotchman, that they take static swings and fail to accelerate the bathead.
Which is why it was odd, in this article, for the author to say that the machine-generated comps list "was peppered with sloths" like Mauer, Hatteberg, Barton, Olerud, and Grace. Actually, 70% of the people on this "arm-swing, 3-and-2-count" list were speed burners. But let's take those five:
| Mauer | N/A. Crushes ball through IF for hi BABIP |
| Hatteberg | .261 BABIP on this list |
| Grace | .258 BABIP on this list |
| Olerud, 2004, old | .281 BABIP |
| Barton | .318 BABIP - the one counterexample |
Look, guys. If you get Casey Kotchman arm-swinging a declerated bat, and he can't run, you're looking at a lousy BABIP. That's axiomatic. And it's much worse in Safeco. Kotchman's career BABIP is only .280 -- and his year here, it was .229.
Tampa Bay fans complain that Jaso's 1.51 EYE in 2010 occurred before pitchers realized that he can't do anything with the ball once he made contact, and then Jaso's EYE sagged all the way to 0.69. That explains the super-high minors BB/K ratios, mateys. Bush league pitchers weren't going to figure out such a sophisticated pattern, especially not with minor leaguers changing leagues all the time.
Casey Kotchman ran great EYE's early on, and those EYE's dropped off as pitchers realized he couldn't hurt them. You saw this syndrome with Chone Figgins too. In Safeco, there's nothing to fear from guys like that. And they lose their walks too.
It's not just my theorizing. Tampa fans will tell you that's what they observed with Jaso.
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