Yu Go, C.J. - The Good
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=== C.J. Wilson ===
It is possible that Yu Darvish will pitch better than CJ Wilson has, and will join the Big Five as a Tier I starter in the AL. But it's asking a whale of a lot.
C.J. Wilson just finished a 16-7, 2.94 season. That's a 2+ ERA, in the Texas heat, in that stadium, after 223 innings were completed. I would bet against Felix Hernandez accomplishing that. Hey, I'd bet against Bob Gibson His Ownself accomplishing it. A 2+ ERA, full season, in Texas? Slap me silly.
And C.J.'s FIP was the #8 in the American League. The guys ahead of him were The Big Five (Felix, C.C., Verlander, Jered, Haren) and two guys who won't be ahead of him next year.
C.J.'s FIP was #11 in the AL the season before that, and his actual ERA was lower than his FIP.
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It is verrrrrry tough, in Texas, in that ballpark, to run an actual ERA that is lower than your FIP and xFIP. In C.J.'s press conference, he stated that it is nearly impossible to succeed there, that all fly balls to right-center field are home runs, so you have to pitch in such a way that nobody hits the ball in the air to the right side of second base.
C.J. Wilson was objectively as good as anybody in Tier II -- those pitchers being David Price, Michael Pineda, Jon Lester, Ricky Romero, Josh Beckett, etc. -- and as a completely separate issue, he had a special skill for pitching in Texas. This park bonus made Wilson in effect a Tier I pitcher in the AL, the sixth member of that fellowship.
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=== The Good (for Texas) ===
1. It is possible that Yu Darvish will be, in practical terms, a better pitcher than C.J. Wilson has been for them, in the sense that it is possible that Yu Darvish will be the best pitcher in Major League Baseball.
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2. C.J. Wilson has thrown 204 and 223 innings the last two years -- plus the postseason, the last two years. It is possible that Wilson is going to hit a wall. (Of course, that is also possible of Darvish.)
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3. You have probably grokked that I don't buy any of the two factors above, but here's a sincere 'put for the Rangers' receivables column.
I expect Darvish to improve the Rangers' pitching in the playoffs. El Duque, from Cuba, was for a while there (his first 40-50 innings or so, IIRC) the greatest postseason pitcher who ever lived. I love international pitching superstars in the ML postseason. Lots of angles, lots of different pitches, the hitters are amp'ed up and the trickery works.
C.J. Wilson was 1-5, 4.87 in the playoffs for Texas, with a lousy CTL ratio. Wilson is not exactly as gifted as Justin Verlander or Felix Hernandez, and as he faced the cream of the crop, his limitations were magnified.
It's like saying, hey, Doug Fister had as many WAR as David Price! It doesn't exactly mean that Doogie is equal to Price. Gravity is going to take effect at some point.
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