And then there were none Dept., 2
................
I/O: A suggestion that the M's give Fielder a 3-year opt-out, with all the money paid after the opt-out.
CRUNCH: Well, sure. If the agent and player would accept this, that's what you'd do. I imagine this proposal was made 5 minutes after the first opt-out discussion ever took place in baseball.
Scott Boras is not doing this for the first time. "We'd like a player option to void the contract in year four." ... "Sure, Scott, we can do that. Now how about $1 a year for three years and then $100M in year four. And you decide whether to stay here."
Ummmmmmm....
You remember Dennis Quaid, Undercover Blues, when Morty adopts a fancy pose with his knife. "You know, that looks good on TV, but in real life you get better results if you .... "AAAHHHHHHH!" (charges, gets flipped over the dock into the water)
In real life, when you're at a high-pressure conference table and you present a mugging scenario with a straight face .... the other side's negotiating team then politely but pointedly turns its heads away from the guy who just said that, and converses with the other members of the team for the rest of the day. The assistant GM doesn't try that at the next session.
There's a second way to reply: angry silence, then break into smiles, check the watches, "Hey, why don't we break for lunch." And then they don't come back from lunch ...
Just saying. That's the reality. Assuming zero IQ doesn't work out well, when negotiating with a lawyer, much less with a guy like Scott Boras. The outcome is painful.
.........
As far as "saving face" for Boras, that doesn't play into real negotiations as much as we fans think it does.
At the closing table, there are lots of zeroes on lots of pieces of paper, and even the most jaded closer gets a high blood pressure reading. It's 100.00% about money when you're talking this kind of dough.
The mass media refuses to take the M's seriously. But if Jack Zduriencik is offering two more years guaranteed, than the whole rest of the field, then you can pencil Prince Fielder into the #4 slot in Japan.
.
I/O: Baseball Prospectus Comps
CRUNCH: BP's player card for Fielder comes up with the following PECOTA player comps:
| 1 Ken Griffey Jr | 1997 | 304 / 382 / 646 with 56 HR |
| 2 Todd Helton | 2001 | 336 / 432 / 685 with 49 HR, 54 2B |
| 3 Mark Teixeira | 2007 | Free agency year |
| 4 Adam Dunn | 2007 | 264 / 386 / 554 with 40 HR |
| 5 John Mayberry | 1975 | 291 / 416 / 547 with 34 HR, 119 RBI |
| 6 Jeff Bagwell | 1995 | 290 / 399 / 496 |
| 7 Jim Thome | 1998 | 293 / 413 / 584 |
| 8 Kal Daniels | 1991 | 250 / 335 / 400 |
| 9 Frank Thomas | 1995 | 308 / 454 / 606 with 40 HR, 136 BB's |
| 10 Barry Bonds | 1992 | 311 / 456 / 624 with |
Hey, I'm not responsible for the blood alcohol levels of computers. But raise your hand if you suspect that the Seattle blog-o-sphere would have found all those players to be unsophisticated, even Neanderthalic, approaches to improving a baseball team....
Prince Fielder is a 150-OPS+ cleanup hitter who leads the league in walks - he is Edgar Martinez if Edgar had been a 40-homer man.
We hear the suggestion that Prince is overrated. Yeah, he's overrated if the only player that interests you is one with "clever" defensive / speed value, like Chone Figgins. Prince Fielder is overrated if every Jim Thome and Jeff Bagwell and Barry Bonds and Frank Thomas in the game is overrated.
But if you want a franchise cleanup hitter who changes the scoreboard, no. Prince Fielder is not overrated. He's a state-of-the-art #4 bat with 100 walks, 440-foot shots and all the trimmings.
If great hitters aren't your thing, because not clever enough, steer clear. Me? I'll take four of 'em.
Your friend,
Jeff