Millwood vs Masterson ... Pre-Game
...............
=== Future's So Bright We Gotta Wear Shades, Dept. ===
M's right now are tied for the wild card. :- )
There's a thought floating that the 5 wins against the A's don't count. You think they'd have counted if the Mariners lost them? Suppose the M's were 3-and-8 right now. Would that be taken as indicative of anything? So why doesn't a strong 6-5 record indicate anything?
No, it says here that the Mariners have played mondo tough the first 11 games. In 9 of those 11 games, they've faced top-of-the-rotation starting pitchers. (Colon is real strong in the first half, and Colby Lewis was on fire.) If anybody had offered me 6-and-5 right now, I'd a said "in a heartbeat."
That said, the Cleveland Indians are an average-solid team, in a neutral home park*, and we face an average-solid three RH starting pitchers, taking these three as a group. The Indians have won 20 of their last 28 at Safeco. Check the bases gained and bases lost after the series is over, and it will have been a good test. I expect the M's to show that they are at least average-solid themselves.
...........
=== Justin Masterson, Exec Sum ===
He's been underrated. He's an extreme groundballer who still racks up 7 strikeouts a game. Would you want one'a those for the Mariners? Back in 2010, for example, his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) was #18 in the American League, and in 2009 it was about the same. His ERA's were higher than that, camouflaging his ability.
... In 2011, his 3.21 ERA rebounded to match his skill. Overall, his expected ERA has been about 3.60 the last three years. Thath high-quality H20.
Ron Shandler has him as a HQ draftee target, and BJOL has him as "the #53 starting pitcher in the world", in a clump with Madison Bumgarner, Mark Buerhle, and Matt Harrison.
...........
Not everybody here realizes that Masterson is an extreme platoon pitcher, as many of these RH groundballers are. Like this:
| Masterson Career | RHB | LHB |
| OBP | .300 | .362 |
| SLG | .301 (!) | .425 |
It was even worse last year, in his career year: righties slugged a piddling .259 off him. Against hitters swinging from the 3B side of home plate, Masterson is fully as effective as Felix Hernandez is against righties -- actually more effective in 2011. Right-on-right, you've got a Cy Young situation going on.
Lefty, Masterson can be had. So if there was ever a game when you wanted to stack lefties .... let's say you had a lefty catcher and a lefty shortstop on the bench ... this would be it. There literally may never be a game in the 2012 season that called more strongly for lefty hitting.
To be fair, Miguel Olivo is 2-for-6 lifetime against Masterson :- / so that may be all the rationale needed ...
Fortunately, Capt. Jack has indeed given us a ballclub stacked with lefties. Regardless of Wedge's choices at two glove positions, the fact remains that we won't be seeing Betancourt, Lopez and Beltre try to face Justin Masterson. We'll be seeing Ackley, Seager, Smoak et al. Kyle Seager, by the way, has faced Masterson once and has lifted those pesky rodent sinkers into line drives to the tune of 3-for-4 with a double.
.
=== Synergy ===
Cleveland was expected to "field" one of baseball's really lousy defenses, and the 2012 stats are agreeing so far. Considering that their staff is below average in strikeouts, and considering that the M's smack hard, low liners around the park, that lousy defense could cost the Indians in this series. We'll see.
.
=== Various and Sundry ===
The word in the oddsmaking industry is that, hey, check out the Mariners. They're surprisingly tough, tough as in "gritty." ... Cleveland has their #1 tonight, the M's their #5, the line was set at 11:10 and .... the movement is toward the M's. I don't say it's the gospel truth.
The "under" line was set real low ... don't expect many runs ... and people are swarming to take the under. Mass expectation is, tight game tonight. The SSI over/under? Pick the inning Tom Wilhelmsen gets hot, 7th or 6th. M's haven't blown a lead this year that I recall, which makes me nervous...
..........
Dr D is watching: Figgins' and Ichiro's strike zones. Kyle Seager's pulled fly balls. Justin Smoak's BABIP (currently .207). And, with Millwood pitching, whether Brendan Ryan will make a coupla those plays from the hole.
Enjoy,
Dr D