Goin' ta War, 2
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Okay, Kevin Millwood is not actually Tim Hudson 2009 or Derek Lowe 2010. You're not going to give him that contract. But, for the past 30 days (and indeed for this entire season), there's been no functional difference there. You could fit the past 30 days of Millwood's performances onto the back of a Hudson or Lowe baseball card and wouldn't notice anything awry. To put it another way: if the Mariners had given Hudson or Lowe a contract, and received from Hudson or Lowe what Millwood has given them, they'd have had no complaints.
So, LrKrBoi29, note carefully that SSI ain't calling Blake Beavan the 21st-century answer to Catfish Hunter. We're saying -- and we're right -- that for the last 30 days, they've received an impersonation.
So off we go. Here's why we threw down the comps we did.
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=== Walter Johnson, SP1 ===
You can do this one as well as we, or James, could. Pick your own name. The 2012 Seattle Mariners go down the stretch with a 1988-Hershiser-class horse to carry them.
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=== David Cone or Kevin Appier, SP2 ===
The last 30 days, six starts, Hisashi Iwakuma has fanned 8.8 men and walked 2.6, with an average HR rate.
He does it with a stinging little 90-93 fastball and a game-breaking offspeed pitch, the shuuto. Also David Cone, the older version, fanned 8 men and walked 3-4 with a 90-93 fastball, and power slider.
Both SP's walked 3+ men per game not because of command, but because they didn't give in to hitters on 2-0. Both men had 4-5 pitches. Right now Hisashi Iwakuma indeed has been the 90-MPH version of David Cone.
Kevin Appier, once he was 30+ years old, pitched similarly. ... if you're tapping your chin here and thinking that Mr. WBC has been the Big Secret to the M's run? You're right.
He's still not popular. The Mariners as an org still find his presence vaguely distasteful. They need to get over that, real quick. There's every chance that Iwakuma-san could spend two or three years as the 35-year-old David Cone. Why deny yourself the benefits of your own dice roll?
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=== Jamie Moyer, Jimmy Key SP3 ===
You guys can comp Vargas like you can Felix. The last 30 days, he's racked up 1.2 WAR. That's 7+ over the course of a season.
And Dr. D still is behind the curve on Vargas. I think to some extent he's a Safeco illusion. But the guy's got the stones of a burglar and like we sez, if his face looked like Tom Glavine's...
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=== Brad Radke or Doug Fister '10, SP4 ===
Dr. D still is not buying long on Blake Beavan, either. I'm not handing him 4/$45M if he's a free agent this winter.
But! The last 30 days, since being reincarnated with a slider to defend himself with, his K's are 5.50 - right at the Shandler line - and his walks are
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Wait for it
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0.52 men walked per 9 innings.
Are we sabermetricians or are we not? So what do you do when a starting pitcher rips off an 11:1 command ratio and sustains it like this?
Catfish Hunter -- who of course lived off located fastballs, as Beavan does -- gave up some dingers, too. In 1973, when the A's won the whole shebang, Catfish went 21-5 and led the American League in home runs allowed, 39 of them. At least Beavan pitches in Safeco. When Beavan is on this kind of roll, getting close to 6 K's per game (over the Shandler line) and walking 0+, you can speak of Catfish-type performances. ... more feasibly you can compare Brad Radke, or the earlier version of Doug Fister, to Good Beavan
If you like saber CROSSED with tools scouting, then remember this: few pitchers can walk 0.5 men per game without getting blasted. It takes some serious chops to throw that many strikes and not get Vasquezed.
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=== Hudson 2H, Lowe 2H, SP5 ===
Kevin Millwood for the season has 6.60 strikeouts, 2.99 walks, and a piddling 0.61 homers allowed. The piddling HR's are why we think of Hudson and Lowe, though they keep their HR's down with sink, rather than with guile.
Millwood has delivered that kind of season. And Jack Zduriencik does get a golfclap.
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=== KRod, Closer ===
Hot fastball, devastating 12-6 power breaker. Right?
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=== Piazza, Cleanup Hitter ===
John Jaso, the last 30 days has .... wait for this too ... 16 walks and 9 strikeouts. WHAT ARE YOU KIDDING ME! His OBP is .455 and that's with buckets full of doubles and home runs.
Whoop. Two more walks Sunday, no strikeouts. 18:9 EYE. That's like Edgar in the low minors.
Jaso looks like a 1000 OPS hitter as he synchs with pitches in flight. He is in a zone the likes of which the M's have rarely seen in the last ten years. Here comes the pitch and Jaso falls into the ball as if in a hypnotic trance. He simply will not swing at a ball, and he is ready to sock the ever-lovin' stuffing over any speed pitch that dares to venture within reach of his bat.
It's vertigo-inducing to think that maybe Jaso is going to finish the year with a 150 OPS+ ... that would be top-5, entire league ... but he might. The man has 121 walks and 114 strikeouts, career. And he's always had gap power (30 doubles, 12 homers is his normal career rate and his SLG is .500 for the year).
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=== Rest of Lineup ===
Don't tell Dr. D that anybody else is helping; they're not. They're hurting us less than they used to. It's been the Jaso show, period.
Especially the guys we need to -- Ackley, Seager, Montero and Smoak -- have climbed up to "meh." That's a long climb up from where they were.
So there y'have it. Zduriencik got Iwakuma and Beavan in there, he got Ichiro (.300 with a .450 SLG second half) out of there, and the M's are pulling off a pitching miracle.
Matty sez he wants game reports. 'till they don't deserve 'em any more, okay.
BABVA,
Dr D