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Q.  Earlier you said that Kyle Seager would lose value in the new stadium.  How can you say that?!  Zorax, indeed.

A.  There was one (1) significant player on the Mariners' roster whose hit chart showed no benefit from the new fence overly.  No benefit.  No extry homers, at all.  That was Kyle Seager.  

Seager pulls the ball in the air.  When he does go the other way he's like Ichiro; it doesn't go far.

Seager's last year were mediocre in an absolute sense -- a .259 AVG with a .316 OBP and a .423 SLG.  The AL average was .255/.320/.411, so Kyle was riiiiiight AT! the middlin' level.

Now, because he accomplished that in Safeco, his adjusted OPS+ was 110.  Twenty home runs won a whale of a lot more games in Safeco than they did in Texas.

If Seager hits .259/.316/.423 again next year, that exact same 110 OPS+ could become a 95 OPS+.  If the other three players at the Monopoly table are given a free +$1,000 from the bank and you're not, well .... you see why that is precisely the same thing as your becoming -$1,000 poorer.

Seager could easily become worse next season - maybe much worse.  He figures to become worse by precisely the same margin by which other players benefit.  The more YOU AND I enjoy Mariners offense next year, the less Kyle Seager will enjoy it.  That kind of relationship is known as "linear" and is known as "one I'm not looking forward to living through."

SLOPS to the relationship between our finest young player and the stadium changes that will be made around him.

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Q.  Maybe Seager is just scratching the surface of what he can become.

A.  Maybe, but:

(1) Seager doesn't have impressive physical power.  He hit 20 homers last year, but 19 of them were 426 feet and under.  You saw the games.  You're not talking about Josh Hamilton here.

(2) Seager has a good contact swing, a KBIZLT swing, but his strikeouts and EYE don't suggest a .300 AVG.  No way no how.

He hit .259 in 2011 and .259 in 2012.  Now, I think he'll wind up at .280.  But EYE is the leading indicator for .300 hittin', and it's a stretch to pencil him in for .300 given all of the component skills.

SLOPS to Seager's offensive upside.  The component PX (power index) and EYE suggest a solid hitter, not an exciting one.

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Q.  What are his comps?

A.  Run his comps and you come up with a lot of guys like Rick Schu.  Maybe you also get some Mark Teahens in there.

There are caveats and quibbles; B-Ref.com gives you comp lists that don't take into account Safeco Field.  Find a lot of young 3B's who had 150 hits and 80 RBI as rookies and you'll get a lot of Darnell Coleses.

We don't say that's the gospel truth.  But it's very easy to see a low ceiling for Kyle Seager.  ... Dr. D has an inkling that it's going to be very easy for Trader Jack to see this low ceiling, too.

Now that Dr. D has pointed to the CF bleachers, two weeks into the season, and called his shot on Kyle Seager ::he blushes modestly:: and now that Seager has posted the 110 OPS+ as a rookie ... Dr. D now finds it disquietingly easy to see a Mark Teahen career for the lad.

SLOPS to the comps lists for Seager's skillset.

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Q.  How about position scarcity?

A.  Well, if you're dealing Nick Franklin because of Brad Miller ... wouldn't you consider vacating third base for Nick Franklin, Brad Miller, Stefen Romero, Alex Liddi, Vinnie Catricala, Carlos Triunfel, and whatever 4 guys that Spectator is going to tell me I forgot about?

SLOPS to Seager's indispensibility index.

But....