...and Carter Capps on a February Pitchers Report Day
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As a general rule, kids like this (by which we mean, Golden Boy relievers on three-year plans to become rich closers) are works-in-progress. They follow a fairly predictable roto arc. Here by the way is Ron Shandler's writeup of Capps for the coming season:
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Converted starter saved 19 games in AA (72K in 50 IP, 1.26 ERA) by pounding 94-97 MPH fastballs (sic - Dr D). Wasn't overmatched in first MLB trial (28K in 25 IP with .260 OBA), but command predictably lagged. Closer-in-waiting could be worth a few holds from the get-go.
LIMA Plan: A+
2013 Proj: 10.1 K, 3.1 BB, 0.7 HR
Ron-o-Vision translation: this kid is going to get 40 saves a year, so roster him in your Ultra league. Even in 2013 he's just as liable to make you $12 roto out of the pen.
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=== Learning Curve ===
Capps' rate of development -- the speed at which he is making progress -- is excellent.
- He went from terrified to just "nervy" in two weeks.
- He corrected his arm-slot issues in about four or five games, and they stayed corrected.
- His slider was perfectly functional already in September, which you can compare to the breaking-pitch development of (say) Blake Beavan.
- His CTL went from 11:6 in August to 17:5 in September.
Carter Capps is a quick study. Belee' DAT.
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=== Dr's R/X ===
Of course the Mariners want to see a functional slider, but Capps' slider was already functional and it was getting better on a weekly basis. He's likely to come to camp in March and throw lots of strikes with it.
And of course the Mariners aren't ready to ram Carter Capps or Stephen Pryor into the closer role for Opening Day, in the Wilhelmsen SP scenario. This might have been what was in the backs of their minds when they moved on Jack Hanrahan.
They wanna SEE it on Carter Capps, not rush him, give him a chance to eeeaaaaase on in to his destiny. Nothing wrong with that. My complaint is -- that philosophy does rule out closer and it does rule out 8th-inning setup man. But it don't rule out #5/6 starter!
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Is he a finished product? No, but as we've seen before, there are any number of orgs who will let a Gio Gonzalez learn in the rotation. It's pretty much just the Seattle Mariners who are too noble to climb the greasy little rungs of bringing a rookie pheenom to stardom WHILE THEY HAVE TO WATCH him take his lumps...
It's Dr. D's team, Carter Capps is a swing man in 2013. He's throwing 3-IP, 4-IP stints and he is getting spot starts, ominously prep'ing the Chris Sale conversion in July or August.
But supposing they don't wanna do that, which we definitely do suppose. You as a Mariner fan have a whoppin' good chance of getting to watch the 2013 Aroldis Chapman out there. This kid is a VERY exciting commodity and he's gonna be in Safeco from day one.
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