On Young Pitchers and the IP+50 "Rule"
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Q. The SP Stack role would buffer Ramirez' IP, too, right?
A. Nah...
In a vacuum, you could say, maybe it's a good thing to buffer Ramirez' innings a little. If you let him go one, two months out of the pen, then he can go full guns over his last 25 starts. He'll be fresh for our October stomp through the postseason, right?
I might apply this to some pitchers. I would NOT apply it to Erasmo Ramirez. If he's not ready for 200 in 2013, there's no such thing as a pitcher his age who is ready. We're talking sabermetrically, not physically.
The BaseballHQ "rule" is not to increase a pitcher more than 50 innings per season, and especially not twice in a row. BaseballHQ doesn't want to see this:
- Y1 -- 80 IP
- Y2 -- 150 IP (more than 50 extra innings)
- Y3 -- 220 IP (more than 50 extra innings, again)
First of all, I'm not aware that BaseballHQ's rule has been confirmed, and neither is Bill James aware of any proof that the rule is accurate. If he's not aware of the research that confirms the IP+50 rule, I'm guessing you are not, either.
Second of all, why are we going by total innings in a calendar year? Do you go by total bench press movements in a calendar year? If the 200 IP are stretched over seven months, why is that worse than 175 IP in five months? Watch the number of pitches he throws AFTER HE'S TIRED THAT DAY. Then give him proper rest, and then let him throw again. If that's 300 innings in a year, so what?
Third of all, let's suppose you do go by the IP+50 dogma, as almost all MLB orgs actually seem to do. Here are Erasmo's actual innings the last several years:
- 2010 -- 151 IP
- 2011 -- 152 IP
- 2012 -- 138 IP
He's been poised to go 200 IP -- for a long time now. And as you know, Erasmo has an unusually clean delivery.
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Q. So he actually SHOULD be "stretched out" to 200 IP now?
A. The thing is, Ramirez did miss time last year due to the elbow. Divish points out that the Mariners may be keeping a savvy eye on that. Well, okay.
I ain't down there asking Ramirez how the elbow feels. They are.
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People keep saying, Like Wow Man. Ramirez Is Ruined For The Rotation Now. Based on two bullpen outings. Wedge keeps rolling his eyes and saying they can stretch him back out any time.
He's right. A swing man can take a week off, pitch zero, and go 5 IP on two hours' notice. 6 IP the next time. It ain't the big hurkin' production that people make out of it. The fact is, even Carter Capps or Tom Wilhelmsen could go 5 IP if you wanted them to. We remember Julio Mateo doing this once for the M's. Couldn't you go out and throw 90 pitches right now?
90 pitches ain't the Boston blinkin' Marathon. A guy can throw a 5-ounce ball, 5 sets of 15 reps. Especially if his form is perfect.
We get locked into familiar patterns, that's all.
They want to stack Erasmo for a little while, he can swing back into the rotation at any time. What he'll find there, in the jaws of Trout, Hamilton, and Pujols, that's another matter.
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